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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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 Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2009 12:58 am GMT Post subject: |
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| GenXer wrote: | | admin: Take a look at how Europe can't 'agree' on anything at all of consequence (that is, when individual members have to pony up cash). Now consider the 'world' and how they can't agree on anything (think UN). China's best bet is our debt. Nothing else exists that is as stable (though who knows what will happen to the dollar now?), unless they land on the moon and start a new civilization (maybe that's what they have been trying to do all along?) |
So you're saying that China will stick with the US dollar because it is the most rational thing for them to do? I'm A) not convinced that it is their most rational option given that it could equate to them throwing good money after bad and B) not counting on any market actors to act rationally anyway. You like to point out that anything is possible, so why dismiss this?
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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| Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2009 12:59 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Same goes for entrepreneurs beyond a certain point. |
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GenXer
Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703
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| Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2009 10:02 am GMT Post subject: |
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| admin: You are right - players are not rational, and countries may not be. But my argument here is NOT that they will NOT do it, but that they will have a very hard time getting everybody to go along. This is the point of the market - there are always two people who disagree - this is why some buy when others sell, and vice versa. Thus, China may very well do whatever they want to do without asking anyone, if it is in their best interest. However, making everybody else do the same thing is nearly impossible, unless it is crammed down their throats (just like the current budget/bailout). There is always a possibility of anything happening. We may find out that China got its way tomorrow. And you know what? If we become a banana republic, this is exactly what will happen - I have no doubt about that. But I think we have a long way to go to get there. |
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