![bostonbubble.com Forum Index](templates/subSilver/images/logo_phpBB.gif) |
bostonbubble.com Boston Bubble - Boston Real Estate Analysis
|
SPONSORED LINKS
Advertise on Boston Bubble
Buyer brokers and motivated
sellers, reach potential buyers.
www.bostonbubble.com
YOUR AD HERE
|
|
DISCLAIMER: The information provided on this website and in the
associated forums comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY, expressed
or implied. You assume all risk for your own use of the information
provided as the accuracy of the information is in no way guaranteed.
As always, cross check information that you would deem useful against
multiple, reliable, independent resources. The opinions expressed
belong to the individual authors and not necessarily to other parties.
|
View previous topic :: View next topic |
Author |
Message |
Guest
|
Posted: Fri Feb 16, 2007 10:19 pm GMT Post subject: Will Greater Boston's Housing Market Get Worst? |
|
|
Hi Everyone,
Because I have been rented for so long (since 1992 when I was a student), and my landlord is not very good. I plan to buy a house probably this year or before next spring. However, is it a good time to buy?
Although the interest rate is still low, I checked ziprealty.com and found most houses in Randolph, Willingtom, Tewsbury are still very expensive. Especially if I count property tax and utility cost.
For example, this house (89 FERNANDEZ CIR, Randolph, MA 02368), size: 1454/ 12,197 Sq Ft. is listed $345K. Is it expensive? I checked the household income of this city. It's not that much. How could most new buyers afford living there?
Any thought?
Cheers,
CJ |
|
Back to top |
|
![](templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif) |
Phil O. Math Guest
|
Posted: Sat Apr 07, 2007 6:28 pm GMT Post subject: Real Estate Prices Continue to Fall |
|
|
CJ, if your landlord sucks then find another place to rent. Now is not a good time to buy. The fundamentals of real estate prices are the ratios of average price to average income and average price to average rent. These 2 ratios have maintained a relatively stable mean for over a hundred years, until now. Even with the declines over the past year, the price of real estate is still very high compared to average rents and average incomes. A reversion to the mean is inevitable and this will mean continued price declines.
But don't take my word for it - keep reading and keep researching. |
|
Back to top |
|
![](templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif) |
brutus Guest
|
Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 5:31 pm GMT Post subject: the herd |
|
|
When prices are down, buy. When prices are up, sell.
Don't listen to the real estate "scientists" though. They are just part of the herd mentality that persists in real estate whether prices are rising or falling.
Live with the herd, die in the stampede.
A house is a place to live. It's only an investment if you are an expert (you're not) or if you hold it for 7-10 years. I've been through a lot of real estate cycles and the pattern is always the same: prices fall and everyone says "Don't buy!" Prices rise and everyone yells "buy now! Quick!"
The bottom is here. By the time prices start to go up, it will be too late to get a good deal. You'll have to slug it out for every decent piece of property with 10 other buyers that waited until the Boston Globe said it was Ok to buy.
Leave the herd. I know one investor who has bought five homes in the last month. They pray for times like these. You sow the seeds of profit the money when the markets are DOWN. When the market goes up you reap.
I know. I've been doing it since 1980 |
|
Back to top |
|
![](templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif) |
admin Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005 Posts: 1826 Location: Greater Boston
|
Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 5:59 pm GMT Post subject: Re: the herd |
|
|
brutus wrote: |
The bottom is here. By the time prices start to go up, it will be too late to get a good deal. You'll have to slug it out for every decent piece of property with 10 other buyers that waited until the Boston Globe said it was Ok to buy.
|
On what are you basing the assertion that the bottom is here? The price to income ratio is still a lot higher than it has been historically. Also, during the last down cycle, it skipped along the bottom for several years before heading back up, so I don't think that people missed out by waiting a little.
- admin |
|
Back to top |
|
![](templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif) |
balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008 Posts: 1204
|
Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 6:25 pm GMT Post subject: Value investing |
|
|
Brutus' argument is that because the slope of the house price curve is negative, then it must be a good time to buy. Indeed, historically value investing is often more profitable than growth investing. However, a negative slope on the price curve does not imply a value. It is useful to refer to another recent bubble to understand: the tech bubble.
Prices declined in 2000 but that didn't make investing in NASDAQ stocks a good idea in 2000. From this graph, you can see that the best time to invest was about 2003. Clearly, then, value is defined by another measure. In the case of stocks it might be P/E ratios. In the case of real estate, price to income ratio is a good metric. By this metric, it is still a terrible time to buy. Qualitatively, even amongst the bulls, I haven't found one argument as to why housing prices would increase ignoring the downward pressure. In short, determining value based on price changes alone is akin to momentum investing, not value investing.[/img] |
|
Back to top |
|
![](templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif) |
Guest
|
Posted: Tue Apr 29, 2008 7:36 pm GMT Post subject: |
|
|
.
The National Association of Realtors
believe the bottom is in
and now is a great time to buy
.
.
. |
|
Back to top |
|
![](templates/subSilver/images/spacer.gif) |
|
|
You can post new topics in this forum You can reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
Forum posts are owned by the original posters.
Forum boards are Copyright 2005 - present, bostonbubble.com.
Privacy policy in effect.
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group
|