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Guest
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Posted: Tue Jun 13, 2017 9:15 pm GMT Post subject: Re: Federal Reserve |
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RealEstateCafe wrote: | Real Estate Guy wrote: | https://seekingalpha.com/article/4066115-housing-bubble-back |
Amusing final paragraph:
"Predicting the imminent end of this mother of all financial manias is tiresome for both writers and readers, so letβs just assume it will end eventually, and that its demise will be spectacular."
Zillow article / Tweet says "highly likely good deals will exist in late summer for patient buyers." Agree or disagree?
https://twitter.com/realestatecafe/status/874709056388247552
Interest rates are at seven month lows, but the Fed is expected to raise interest rates again tomorrow. Want to meet offline to exchange perspectives / predictions about what impact that will have on the housing market?
Meet at Cambridge Common near Harvard Square or Joshua Tree in Davis Square? Other suggestions for #REonTap?
http://bit.ly/REonTap |
I'd love to meet, but we already know the answers:
1. the end of the echo bubble will come when the next recession hits and the unemployment rate goes from 3.9% to 10% -- at least a few years away
2. prices always dip a little in the winter, but you aren't going to get any housing deals.
3. the short term rates set by the Fed doesn't really affect housing prices. long term rates will go up a bit in the near future but will drop again when the next recession hits. |
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Real Estate Guy Guest
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Posted: Thu Jun 15, 2017 1:39 pm GMT Post subject: Fed Reserve |
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In my opinion, it will be sooner and more severe than Guest's portrayal. Time will tell. Will be in touch @RealEstateCafe |
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RealEstateCafe
Joined: 11 Dec 2007 Posts: 234 Location: Cambridge, MA
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Real Estate Guy Guest
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Real Estate Guy Guest
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Guest
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Posted: Mon Aug 28, 2017 5:27 pm GMT Post subject: |
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The article is sloppy. Those graphs look like they are nominal, while the article quotes real wage growth as a comparison. The graphs also start at 2002. Looking at the national index from 1975 onward (FRED) might provide a more complete picture. |
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Real Estate Guy Guest
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Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:51 am GMT Post subject: |
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Why don't you go invest some money in a house while your trying to figure out the graphs? Nothing better than getting into the real world and truly putting a little skin in the game while you play with your stats. The graphs are more than accurate, as is the authors summary of the effects of market manipulation by the Fed Bank. Who supports this kind of Keynesian crap that has bankrupted our country? |
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Guest
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Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 9:40 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Real Estate Guy wrote: | Why don't you go invest some money in a house while your trying to figure out the graphs? Nothing better than getting into the real world and truly putting a little skin in the game while you play with your stats. The graphs are more than accurate, as is the authors summary of the effects of market manipulation by the Fed Bank. Who supports this kind of Keynesian crap that has bankrupted our country? |
If you think we are in a bubble, why don't you sell your house and rent so you can buy after the bubble pops? FYI, our country is not bankrupt. We have the means to pay our bills once we roll back the Bush/Obama tax cuts. |
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Real Estate Guy Guest
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Posted: Tue Aug 29, 2017 11:59 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Quote: | If you think we are in a bubble, why don't you sell your house and rent so you can buy after the bubble pops? FYI, our country is not bankrupt. We have the means to pay our bills once we roll back the Bush/Obama tax cuts. |
I don't have the need to cash out and sell my house. Although I bought in 2001 before Greenspan inflated the first housing bubble, I actually have significant equity(something no buyer today will see for decades)
I have unloaded much investment real estate in the past 18 months however(as you suggested) and have invested outside the US and in metals. My Gold holdings are up 12% this year. Funny how gold is rising with the stock market, huh? True sign that the world knows the American economy is bullshit. In regards to your assertion that America is not broke I don't even know what to say. Bush tax cuts? Seriously? It has nothing to do with 3 cycles of Fed money printing driving up the debt from what was 9 trillion in 2008 to want is now 21 trillion as a result? Our sick GDP hasn't average over 2% since then and in true "unmanipulated" terms won't again. Our GDP doesn't even cover our budget or the interest on our debt. Let's see what happens this year, or the next few, as our GDP stagnates and our debt keeps rising. Let me know how buying that house goes. |
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Guest
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Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:03 am GMT Post subject: |
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Real Estate Guy wrote: | Quote: | If you think we are in a bubble, why don't you sell your house and rent so you can buy after the bubble pops? FYI, our country is not bankrupt. We have the means to pay our bills once we roll back the Bush/Obama tax cuts. |
I don't have the need to cash out and sell my house. Although I bought in 2001 before Greenspan inflated the first housing bubble, I actually have significant equity(something no buyer today will see for decades)
I have unloaded much investment real estate in the past 18 months however(as you suggested) and have invested outside the US and in metals. My Gold holdings are up 12% this year. Funny how gold is rising with the stock market, huh? True sign that the world knows the American economy is bullshit. In regards to your assertion that America is not broke I don't even know what to say. Bush tax cuts? Seriously? It has nothing to do with 3 cycles of Fed money printing driving up the debt from what was 9 trillion in 2008 to want is now 21 trillion as a result? Our sick GDP hasn't average over 2% since then and in true "unmanipulated" terms won't again. Our GDP doesn't even cover our budget or the interest on our debt. Let's see what happens this year, or the next few, as our GDP stagnates and our debt keeps rising. Let me know how buying that house goes. |
Should have invested in cryptocurrencies... Gold should be a decent short-term trade though as it broke above its 12-mo moving average. Long-term US bond yields have dropped, which seems to go against your implied concern of inflation (apparently stagflation is your worry, since were it simple inflation you would load up on property using debt as an inflation hedge). Barring a geopolitical event, we are at least a year away from recession, if not longer.
It seems you think most people are in real estate as an investment rather than as a primary residence. That's fine... I'd rather invest in other things as well. With that said, I just looked at that article you linked to, and it sure appears that we have already recovered from one of the worst housing bubbles on record. Seems like folks who can stay put for a decade (never a guarantee... I don't need arlington to rant about divorce, etc.) should make out fine. |
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Real Estate Guy Guest
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Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:59 am GMT Post subject: |
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Should have invested in cryptocurrencies... Gold should be a decent short-term trade though as it broke above its 12-mo moving average. Long-term US bond yields have dropped, which seems to go against your implied concern of inflation (apparently stagflation is your worry, since were it simple inflation you would load up on property using debt as an inflation hedge). Barring a geopolitical event, we are at least a year away from recession, if not longer.
It seems you think most people are in real estate as an investment rather than as a primary residence. That's fine... I'd rather invest in other things as well. With that said, I just looked at that article you linked to, and it sure appears that we have already recovered from one of the worst housing bubbles on record. Seems like folks who can stay put for a decade (never a guarantee... I don't need arlington to rant about divorce, etc.) should make out fine[/quote]
Cryptocurrencies are another bubble. I have little faith in those in the short term.
Ah yes, the perfect "text book" advice of buying property and leveraging with debt to hedge inflation. Problem is: that book is out of date. You seem to like graphs. Graph this: housing price appreciation relative to median household income since 2001. Then compare that 15/16 Year period to any other is US history. After you pass out and regain composer, ask yourself how on earth we could apply any text book models to this? Buying property to hedge inflation does not work when assert prices are 30+% already INFLATED. Although you'd pick up the amortization on your over leveraged debt, the equity at risk of loss far exceeds any benefit.
This time my friend, Keynesian economics has drained the wealth from our Country and left all of us with bubbles. Mark my words: We will all pay when the Fed let's the air out of this completely fake, manipulated economy. Americans will feel much pain-like never before since 1930. And, for better or worse, that's the time to buy. It's close enough to "D" day, that investing heavy in anything such as stocks or real estate right now is a fool's game. |
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Guest
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Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:58 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Real Estate Guy wrote: | Should have invested in cryptocurrencies... Gold should be a decent short-term trade though as it broke above its 12-mo moving average. Long-term US bond yields have dropped, which seems to go against your implied concern of inflation (apparently stagflation is your worry, since were it simple inflation you would load up on property using debt as an inflation hedge). Barring a geopolitical event, we are at least a year away from recession, if not longer.
It seems you think most people are in real estate as an investment rather than as a primary residence. That's fine... I'd rather invest in other things as well. With that said, I just looked at that article you linked to, and it sure appears that we have already recovered from one of the worst housing bubbles on record. Seems like folks who can stay put for a decade (never a guarantee... I don't need arlington to rant about divorce, etc.) should make out fine |
Cryptocurrencies are another bubble. I have little faith in those in the short term.
Ah yes, the perfect "text book" advice of buying property and leveraging with debt to hedge inflation. Problem is: that book is out of date. You seem to like graphs. Graph this: housing price appreciation relative to median household income since 2001. Then compare that 15/16 Year period to any other is US history. After you pass out and regain composer, ask yourself how on earth we could apply any text book models to this? Buying property to hedge inflation does not work when assert prices are 30+% already INFLATED. Although you'd pick up the amortization on your over leveraged debt, the equity at risk of loss far exceeds any benefit.
This time my friend, Keynesian economics has drained the wealth from our Country and left all of us with bubbles. Mark my words: We will all pay when the Fed let's the air out of this completely fake, manipulated economy. Americans will feel much pain-like never before since 1930. And, for better or worse, that's the time to buy. It's close enough to "D" day, that investing heavy in anything such as stocks or real estate right now is a fool's game.[/quote]
I already have that graph starting from 1976. |
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Real Estate Guy Guest
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Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:23 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Quote: | I already have that graph starting from 1976 |
Let's see it. |
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Real Estate Guy Guest
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Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:10 pm GMT Post subject: |
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When will Americans rise up and over throw the pure filth at the Federal Reserve? Have Americans become content with having our free markets gutted by this Keynesian private institution that is robbing our wealth? Since 1913 they have slowing extracted all the wealth from America and transferred to the elite banking conglomerate while leaving most Americans in the cold. Will it take another major crisis to actually grow a pair and revolt?
https://www.lombardiletter.com/5-signs-u-s-economic-collapse-2017/5229/ |
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Guest
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Posted: Sun Sep 17, 2017 3:43 pm GMT Post subject: |
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Real Estate Guy wrote: | When will Americans rise up and over throw the pure filth at the Federal Reserve? Have Americans become content with having our free markets gutted by this Keynesian private institution that is robbing our wealth? Since 1913 they have slowing extracted all the wealth from America and transferred to the elite banking conglomerate while leaving most Americans in the cold. Will it take another major crisis to actually grow a pair and revolt?
https://www.lombardiletter.com/5-signs-u-s-economic-collapse-2017/5229/ |
People will never revolt. They are content to keep the same 2 party system that doesn't care about the middle class.
You obviously see the Fed/economy only from your perspective, so you don't understand why the Fed is forced to do what it has to do. For decades, we have outsourced our high paying jobs away. The Fed needs to keep rates low to help most people get by. Most people have less that 2k in savings so they don't care about low rates. The Fed will go back to normal, when those high paying jobs come back, which is not in our lifetimes. We are on our own and need to take advantage of the system. Resourceful people make money in the good times and the bad. Just sitting back and complaining won't fix anything. |
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