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"Bubble-less" Prices?

 
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Brian C
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 9:27 pm GMT    Post subject: "Bubble-less" Prices? Reply with quote

Admin,

If you or anyone has access to older housing data (1996-1998), I would like to see a graph or numbers on median housing numbers if there was no bubble at all from 1998-2005.

In talking to my realtor who has been in the business for 30 years, she said there was about a 1.5-3.5% annual increase in housing prices during the early 90's, much different than the bubble years.

Adjusted to inflation, what would prices be today if the bubble never blew?
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admin
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Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1824
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Fri Jan 25, 2008 9:45 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brian C,

You're in luck - the S&P/Case-Shiller Index for Boston goes back to 1986. There are some graphs for both nominal and inflation adjusted values, plus market expectations based on futures prices at:

http://www.bostonbubble.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=618

It looks like the nominal graph jives with that your Realtor said.

Eye-balling the inflation adjusted graph, the flat line in the 90's is about 45% below the most recent value of the index. That isn't to say that the 90's represent the true value - some others have argued here before that the 90's may have been an overcorrection on the downside.

- admin
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