bostonbubble.com

[john p]

http://www.marealtor.com/content/AssetMgmt/Documents/Member%20Resources/Research/AntiBubbleAnalysisBostonMSA.pdf

http://www.marealtor.com/content/bubble_analysis.asp

Read the verbiage on page 7 and then look at the first chart on page 9. These guys are really trying to put lipstick on this pig. Nice try MA Realtors. You're credibility will go down the toilet when the market corrects.

You know every time I meet a realtor, I am amazed at how stupid and lazy most of them are. I assume every time they are moving their lips that they are lying, but it is uncanny how flat out dumb most are. If I showed up to a meeting at work and were as unprepared as most of these realtors were when they show houses I'd lose my job. I am amazed at how they can still get the percentages that they do.

Giving them more credit and assuming that they are dumb like a fox makes me angry. It is very crafty how they cherry pick and interchange national statistics and forecasts with local ones.

In all fairness though, the freefall plunge of interest rates completely screwed up people's sense of fundamentals and once people's common sense was uprooted they seemed to be easily mislead and prone to irrational exuberance.

As a society, if we allow too many people to overextend we will risk the balance of future earnings. If we don't space out our spending to align with our earnings and savings, and everyone spends tomorrow's earnings today, we'll be dried up. Everyone will be pushing their bosses for raises and I'm not sure if the FED is going to allow inflation. Not all the big companies have to stay here in Massachusetts. If we let the cost of living get out of hand these companies won't want to pay our high salaries and will just leave for Rhode Island, Virginia, etc. Follow the course of the first path of capitalism in our country, watch the trail of factories in America, once our labor asked for too much here, the companies said goodbye, went south and then to China. We reinvented ourselves with this white collar thing, but that can go just as quickly (most likely south, then overseas too). It's funny I see the whole thing like a mob mentality, if everyone does it, it can't come home to roost because how could they let so many people get screwed.

I thought Massachusetts had old Yankees that had common sense, played by the rules and were grounded in rational thought. If we don't start thinking clearly a lot of us will be house poor or bankrupt in the next decade.

[admin]

Thanks for your post. It's interesting to see how the argument of those in industry has changed over the last year from housing appreciation will remain very strong indefinitely due to lending "innovations", to the market will just cool down to a "normal" level", and now to a nominal market decline of 5% is unlikely (from their analysis of Boston). I also like how they conveniently interchange local and national data (as you pointed out) as well as real and nominal data.

Not all real estate agents parrot these talking points, fortunately. Some seem to have quite a good capacity for independent analysis. I've met with local agent Bill Wendel before and he seems particularly clueful and realizes that the industry needs to change.

- admin