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2021 RE Forecasts: Housing Correction forecast 2022

 
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If housing prices correcting in 2022, will you
Accelerate homebuying plans
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Step back from overheated housing market
66%
 66%  [ 2 ]
No change, impossible to predict
33%
 33%  [ 1 ]
Other, please explain
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Total Votes : 3

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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 229
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2020 4:22 pm GMT    Post subject: 2021 RE Forecasts: Housing Correction forecast 2022 Reply with quote

#Covid_ImpactRE: #RE2020 & RECALL (Real Estate Consumer Alliance) invite #BuyerAgents, #RETech innovators, @nareenews to use link below to watch firehouse of content online today

How will forecasts impact homebuying decisions?
https://bit.ly/REForecastHose_121020

#DefensiveHomebuying #BosRE
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The Real Estate Cafe
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bsg61
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 23, 2020 2:35 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Boston Globe ran an article yesterday that the median price in Boston area rose 17% in 12 months. (I paid $1.00 for a six month Globe Digital subscription which lets me read these articles):

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/22/business/another-month-another-record-home-prices-boston-area/

So if this keeps up, the Globe was right when they ran that article in 2016:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2016/01/07/think-boston-housing-expensive-now-wait-five-years/6qTjKdarDT2AdZkpqrJWaJ/story.html

Artificially and unnaturally low interest rates per the Fed are projected to last until *at least* 2023 which means continued asset inflation. Everyone who "owns" a house is getting rich! To be a millionaire around here is just average now if you consider the "worth" of your home. To be considered truly rich you have to be worth 4-5 million at least. How else will you afford those pesky increased property taxes?

If you were smart you plowed your savings into the stock market after 2008 and didn't let fear or insecurity sway you. How many people had the guts to do that? A lot, apparently. Or, you bought property at the proverbial bottom in 2012 and watched it's value double or more.

The current Fed chair is worth $50 million, what does that tell you? Low interest rates, quantitative easing, and stock buy backs are good for the rich. The 2017 tax cuts were also great for the 1-2 percenters. So, let's keep it going! Kick that can down that road as long as we can!

J. Powell and friends will be fine living in their gated communities and/or fully stocked bunkers on their private islands, and the hoi polloi? Well, who cares about them? You snoozed and you losed, folks! No one said life was fair.

Merry Christmas to all, and to all, a good fight, er, I mean...night!
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 26, 2020 7:00 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

bsg61 wrote:
The Boston Globe ran an article yesterday that the median price in Boston area rose 17% in 12 months. (I paid $1.00 for a six month Globe Digital subscription which lets me read these articles):

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/22/business/another-month-another-record-home-prices-boston-area/

So if this keeps up, the Globe was right when they ran that article in 2016:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2016/01/07/think-boston-housing-expensive-now-wait-five-years/6qTjKdarDT2AdZkpqrJWaJ/story.html

Artificially and unnaturally low interest rates per the Fed are projected to last until *at least* 2023 which means continued asset inflation. Everyone who "owns" a house is getting rich! To be a millionaire around here is just average now if you consider the "worth" of your home. To be considered truly rich you have to be worth 4-5 million at least. How else will you afford those pesky increased property taxes?

If you were smart you plowed your savings into the stock market after 2008 and didn't let fear or insecurity sway you. How many people had the guts to do that? A lot, apparently. Or, you bought property at the proverbial bottom in 2012 and watched it's value double or more.

The current Fed chair is worth $50 million, what does that tell you? Low interest rates, quantitative easing, and stock buy backs are good for the rich. The 2017 tax cuts were also great for the 1-2 percenters. So, let's keep it going! Kick that can down that road as long as we can!

J. Powell and friends will be fine living in their gated communities and/or fully stocked bunkers on their private islands, and the hoi polloi? Well, who cares about them? You snoozed and you losed, folks! No one said life was fair.

Merry Christmas to all, and to all, a good fight, er, I mean...night!


The fight is over. The Fed doesn't care about poor people who don't own hard assets. If you don't own a house, you are doomed to a life of poverty, you just don't know it yet. Any hard asset will continue to rise. Stocks, bitcoin, gold, silver, houses, etc. Even a correction after 2023 will not bring prices down to pre-2020 levels.
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bsg61
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 28, 2020 6:56 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, I don't own a house and I highly doubt I'm doomed to a life of poverty since I have other assets, I have zero debt and I'm of a certain age. Buying a house, contrary to popular opinion, does not always translate into "I'm gonna be rich!" unless you buy and sell at exactly the right time.

No one really knows what is going to happen since no one has a crystal ball. There were similar sentiments back in 2006 regarding R.E. always going up but look what happened. Yes, I realize "it is different now". Perhaps it truly is different this time, because Janet Yellen said so. Oh wait, she changed her mind...

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/13/yellen-can-never-be-confident-wont-be-another-financial-crisis.html

Only time will tell but I would never hazard to guess what will happen, from everything I've read and I'm no expert, we are in uncharted territory.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 01, 2021 8:07 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

bsg61 wrote:
Well, I don't own a house and I highly doubt I'm doomed to a life of poverty since I have other assets, I have zero debt and I'm of a certain age. Buying a house, contrary to popular opinion, does not always translate into "I'm gonna be rich!" unless you buy and sell at exactly the right time.

No one really knows what is going to happen since no one has a crystal ball. There were similar sentiments back in 2006 regarding R.E. always going up but look what happened. Yes, I realize "it is different now". Perhaps it truly is different this time, because Janet Yellen said so. Oh wait, she changed her mind...

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/13/yellen-can-never-be-confident-wont-be-another-financial-crisis.html

Only time will tell but I would never hazard to guess what will happen, from everything I've read and I'm no expert, we are in uncharted territory.


Renting makes sense when you are young and single. If you are married/divorced with kids and renting, you are doomed. Historically, homeowners are worth 30x-40x more than renters. The average net worth of a renter is 6k. True, 6k is an asset, but it's a chump change asset. The average net worth of a homeowner is 250k (in Boston area probably 2-3x more). Of course there are exceptions, but the odds are way lower than 0.1%.

https://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/2020/10/07/a-homeowners-net-worth-is-40x-greater-than-a-renters/
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 04, 2021 10:34 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know what it is, but there's something about getting married that makes people want to buy a house.
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:18 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll take a crack at that. You were raised to think you'd get a well-paying job, get married, buy a house, put up that white picket fence, have 2.5 children, and live happily ever after.

You're out of college, you've been dating someone for awhile. You start getting unsolicited, nosey questions from relatives: "So...where is this going, when are you going to settle down, he seems like he would be a good husband, she's a nice girl, what are you waiting for?" Your friends are getting married. The pressure continues. Maybe you are living together in a rental. You get married. You're told you should buy a house. Maybe you want to buy a house but the pressure starts: "You can't rent forever! Don't you want to put down some roots? A house is a great investment!"

You buy a house. Then more questions start: "So, are you thinking to start a family? We'd love a grand child!" The unsolicited questions continue. Your friends are all having kids. You want kids. You get pregnant, have a baby. After another year: "So, don't you think junior would love a sister or brother?" You have another baby. Maybe more.

And so it goes. Keep up with the Joneses, or else risk social ostracism! Rinse, repeat, ad nauseam.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:10 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

You make it sound kind of dismal. lol.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:43 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not sure there will be YOY housing price declines until 2024 at the earliest. With the Democrats in control, they will push policies (stimulus payments, student loan forgiveness, mortgage forbearance, rent moratoriums and student loan deferrals) that will continue to inflate housing prices, stock prices, bitcoin, gold, etc.

My predictions for housing prices:
2021: +9% YOY
2022: +5% YOY
2023: +2% YOY
2024: 0% YOY
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:59 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

These policies that you say Democrats will "push" may very well keep families in their homes and food on the table.
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 12, 2021 2:42 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
These policies that you say Democrats will "push" may very well keep families in their homes and food on the table.


What kind of society have we become where 40% struggle to pay rent and put food on the table? What happens when it becomes 50% or 60%?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/11/just-39percent-of-americans-could-pay-for-a-1000-emergency-expense.html
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 09, 2021 1:11 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's only February and the Boston area housing market is on fire. If this continues I think we might see +10% YOY price increases again in 2021. And this is happening in the middle of a pandemic and deep recession. Unbelievable.
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 16, 2021 5:56 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

There absolutely will be no housing correction as long as Biden is in the White House. The Democrats will try to prop up the housing market for years.

Mortgage forbearance will last until the end of 2021. Homeowners in forbearance will have the option to not pay their mortgages for 2 years (2020 and 2021). Homeowners in forbearance will end up with a huge pile of cash and houses worth a lot more than what they paid. In the future, I wouldn't be surprised to see widespread mortgage forgiveness after widespread student loan forgiveness. If the government can forgive 50k for all government backed student loans, why can't they forgive 50k for all government backed mortgages? The Democrats are logical animals after all.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/16/biden-extends-protections-for-homeowners-what-you-need-to-know-.html

Biden will allow millions of illegal immigrants to stream into the US and into the sanctuary states like Massachusetts in the next 4 years. They will need places to live.
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 17, 2021 4:29 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
There absolutely will be no housing correction as long as Biden is in the White House. The Democrats will try to prop up the housing market for years.

Mortgage forbearance will last until the end of 2021. Homeowners in forbearance will have the option to not pay their mortgages for 2 years (2020 and 2021). Homeowners in forbearance will end up with a huge pile of cash and houses worth a lot more than what they paid. In the future, I wouldn't be surprised to see widespread mortgage forgiveness after widespread student loan forgiveness. If the government can forgive 50k for all government backed student loans, why can't they forgive 50k for all government backed mortgages? The Democrats are logical animals after all.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/16/biden-extends-protections-for-homeowners-what-you-need-to-know-.html

Biden will allow millions of illegal immigrants to stream into the US and into the sanctuary states like Massachusetts in the next 4 years. They will need places to live.




Give me a break. That's all Trump did was beg the fed to keep interest rates low.
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 229
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:47 am GMT    Post subject: HousingWire Economic Outlook ducks question Reply with quote

As National Consumer Protection Week ends, participated in HousingWire's virtual event today (HWSpring Summit) and submitted this question below to four economists / housing analysts:Invite feedback from BostonBubble readers here or on Twitter:


Q: Do any of the panelists see a price correction coming in 2021 - 2022? Are we already witnessing a K-shaped price trends with single-family price rising and condos falling? See MEDIAN prices Jan 2021 YOY:

#BosRE: Rentals down 17%, now median CONDO prices down YOY Jan 2021

Suffolk, Middlesex Counties -5%+
CambMA -9.3%
SomervilleMA -16.9%
Downtown Boston -30.9% SHOCKING!

#HousingBubble & #RealEstateBubble searches way off 2005-6, but MA ranks #4 & #7 recently


+ + +

LINKS:

Cross post @RealEstateCafe:
http://bit.ly/KShaped_CovidRE_BosREJan2021

Thread on Twitter account with link to GlobeHomes article:
https://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe/status/1365734670810427404?s=20
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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