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MA SFH May 2008: nominal median down 9.2% YOY, sales down 24

 
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 20, 2008 8:47 pm GMT    Post subject: MA SFH May 2008: nominal median down 9.2% YOY, sales down 24 Reply with quote

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Description: MA SFH May 2008: nominal median down 9.2% YOY, sales down 24.5%
URL: http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2008/06/collapsedachusetts-existing-home-sales.h ...truncated...
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2008 2:38 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Correction: it was condo sales which were down 24.5%, not single family homes as originally reported. Single family home sales were down 10.1%.

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JCK



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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 1:20 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is some definite market divergence going on here. From today's Globe:

Quote:
Meanwhile, communities closer to Boston continued to suffer less than outlying areas. The median price for single-family homes within the Route 495 belt dropped just 3.2 percent over the past year, to $460,000, while condo prices in the metropolitan area were unchanged at $360,000, the Greater Boston Association of Realtors said yesterday.


http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2008/06/24/state_home_sales_decline_in_may/

If prices dropped by 9% statewide, but only 3% within 495, the numbers outside 495 must be absolutely horrible.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 1:39 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

JCK wrote:

If prices dropped by 9% statewide, but only 3% within 495, the numbers outside 495 must be absolutely horrible.


That's certainly possible, but it could conversely signify things are worse off inside 495. These are medians being reported, so they are susceptible to a skew from a change in the mix of what is being sold. Hypothetically speaking, if the number of homes being sold within 495 were to fall relative to the proportion being sold outside of 495, that could produce what you are seeing here with a much larger drop in the statewide median, simply because there are more lower priced statewide sales now. I don't know whether that is what actually happened in this case, but it seems possible.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 1:55 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

admin wrote:
JCK wrote:

If prices dropped by 9% statewide, but only 3% within 495, the numbers outside 495 must be absolutely horrible.


That's certainly possible, but it could conversely signify things are worse off inside 495. These are medians being reported, so they are susceptible to a skew from a change in the mix of what is being sold. Hypothetically speaking, if the number of homes being sold within 495 were to fall relative to the proportion being sold outside of 495, that could produce what you are seeing here with a much larger drop in the statewide median, simply because there are more lower priced statewide sales now. I don't know whether that is what actually happened in this case, but it seems possible.

- admin


Good point. I guess I didn't consider that very likely, based on my hunch that far flung suburbs, which become popular mainly due to lower prices during the boom/bubble, are probably fairing worse than those closer in, all else being equal. But I don't have the numbers to back this up. Boston.com usually posts a town-by-town breakdown of sales, but it's quite a bit of work to piece together the various metro markets from this data.

In any case, I wish there were separate Boston market figures more widely available. I frankly don't really care what's happening on the Cape or in Springfield, which is much less relevant to the Boston Bubble.
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:01 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

JCK wrote:

In any case, I wish there were separate Boston market figures more widely available. I frankly don't really care what's happening on the Cape or in Springfield, which is much less relevant to the Boston Bubble.


How about the S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Index? It's not statewide, is focused on the Greater Boston area, and importantly is not susceptible to the same skew as the median when it comes to a change in the mix of what is being sold. The April numbers should be out today, I think.

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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:18 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

admin wrote:
JCK wrote:

In any case, I wish there were separate Boston market figures more widely available. I frankly don't really care what's happening on the Cape or in Springfield, which is much less relevant to the Boston Bubble.


How about the S&P/Case-Shiller Boston Index? It's not statewide, is focused on the Greater Boston area, and importantly is not susceptible to the same skew as the median when it comes to a change in the mix of what is being sold. The April numbers should be out today, I think.

- admin


Again, excellent point. I wish they included condo sales, but I think the trends are probably similar enough not to matter much, except in certain local markets (e.g., downtown Boston).
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 24, 2008 2:21 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

JCK wrote:

Again, excellent point. I wish they included condo sales, but I think the trends are probably similar enough not to matter much, except in certain local markets (e.g., downtown Boston).


Yes, that's true, it's not directly applicable for condo sales. What about Radar Logic? I haven't looked into their data or methodology much, but I do believe they include condo sales.

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