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Has the Boston condo market finally peaked?

 
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NuttyBoston
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 29, 2019 2:49 am GMT    Post subject: Has the Boston condo market finally peaked? Reply with quote

I wanted to have an opinion of others on my observation. At this time there are many condos listed in Boston and 'inner' suburbs that have been on the market for more than a few weeks or months. Many have seen price cuts as well. This is rather odd for this area. Does it mean that people are no longer interested in buying and the Boston area's market has finally peaked?
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 29, 2019 1:59 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

You know what. I was thinking about the same thing, and I am relieved to know that I am not the only one going crazy over this. I wonder why is nobody talking about it. There have been articles about other hot markets around the US, but nothing on Boston.

Looks like the demand has suddenly dried up, but it might take time for reality to hit the sellers and this getting reflected in the price. This might finally be an opportunity for the buyers like me who were patient enough 9or just broke).

Very Happy
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:52 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was looking just yesterday at condo listings in Southie. There were a lot
of $1000 / sf condos for sale. That's new.
Until now you'd only see that in BB, BH, SE, downtown and waterfront.
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PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 1:23 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

True. But most of them don't seem to be getting sold, not at least in this season.
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 03, 2019 12:40 am GMT    Post subject: Re: Has the Boston condo market finally peaked? Reply with quote

NuttyBoston wrote:
I wanted to have an opinion of others on my observation. At this time there are many condos listed in Boston and 'inner' suburbs that have been on the market for more than a few weeks or months. Many have seen price cuts as well. This is rather odd for this area. Does it mean that people are no longer interested in buying and the Boston area's market has finally peaked?


Luxury condos have peaked because they built so many in the past few years. Single family homes still have a few more years to go before they peak.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 1:23 am GMT    Post subject: Re: Has the Boston condo market finally peaked? Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
NuttyBoston wrote:
I wanted to have an opinion of others on my observation. At this time there are many condos listed in Boston and 'inner' suburbs that have been on the market for more than a few weeks or months. Many have seen price cuts as well. This is rather odd for this area. Does it mean that people are no longer interested in buying and the Boston area's market has finally peaked?


Luxury condos have peaked because they built so many in the past few years. Single family homes still have a few more years to go before they peak.


30 year mortgage rates just went below 3.7%. Wait until they drop below 3 next spring. People will be fighting just to get in line for open houses. Get your popcorn ready.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 06, 2019 3:27 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a good idea to buy at a realy low rate if you plan to be there a long time.
So what if it temporarily loses some value along the way? It'll bounce
back and then some afte a couple of years.
Unless you have a realy good rent deal in a place you really like ...
And no I'm not a realtor. Just someone who boought my place 12 years ago,
saw the value fluctuate a bit, and am now paying less than I would be
if I were still renting.
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NuttyBoston
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 09, 2019 2:50 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
It's a good idea to buy at a realy low rate if you plan to be there a long time.
So what if it temporarily loses some value along the way? It'll bounce
back and then some afte a couple of years.
Unless you have a realy good rent deal in a place you really like ...
And no I'm not a realtor. Just someone who boought my place 12 years ago,
saw the value fluctuate a bit, and am now paying less than I would be
if I were still renting.


I am happy for you that it worked out. But most people will not likely use this metric of paying less after 12 years as a good thing. You ended up locking your capital to an asset that might have appreciated a bit. At an average rate of return for the last 12 years in other asset classes, like s&p500, someone with that much capital is almost certain to have fared far far better.
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PostPosted: Sat Aug 10, 2019 1:10 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

NuttyBoston wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
It's a good idea to buy at a realy low rate if you plan to be there a long time.
So what if it temporarily loses some value along the way? It'll bounce
back and then some afte a couple of years.
Unless you have a realy good rent deal in a place you really like ...
And no I'm not a realtor. Just someone who boought my place 12 years ago,
saw the value fluctuate a bit, and am now paying less than I would be
if I were still renting.


I am happy for you that it worked out. But most people will not likely use this metric of paying less after 12 years as a good thing. You ended up locking your capital to an asset that might have appreciated a bit. At an average rate of return for the last 12 years in other asset classes, like s&p500, someone with that much capital is almost certain to have fared far far better.


It's true that you can make better use of your capital by renting and investing your savings in the stock market. However, 99% of all renters don't have that kind of financial discipline. You can also make better use of your capital not having any kids and investing your money in the stock market. Sometimes a little enjoyment is worth the money.
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:26 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

NuttyBoston wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
It's a good idea to buy at a realy low rate if you plan to be there a long time.
So what if it temporarily loses some value along the way? It'll bounce
back and then some afte a couple of years.
Unless you have a realy good rent deal in a place you really like ...
And no I'm not a realtor. Just someone who boought my place 12 years ago,
saw the value fluctuate a bit, and am now paying less than I would be
if I were still renting.


I am happy for you that it worked out. But most people will not likely use this metric of paying less after 12 years as a good thing. You ended up locking your capital to an asset that might have appreciated a bit. At an average rate of return for the last 12 years in other asset classes, like s&p500, someone with that much capital is almost certain to have fared far far better.


I didn't go 12 years until the cost differential. I can't tell you exactly when
it was. But you also need to consider that you'll own your place free and
clear one day. I expect my mortgage to be paid off in just under 7 years.
You'll probably start with a 30 year fixed. But after a few years you'll
refi into a 15 year.
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:31 am GMT    Post subject: Re: Has the Boston condo market finally peaked? Reply with quote

NuttyBoston wrote:
I wanted to have an opinion of others on my observation. At this time there are many condos listed in Boston and 'inner' suburbs that have been on the market for more than a few weeks or months. Many have seen price cuts as well. This is rather odd for this area. Does it mean that people are no longer interested in buying and the Boston area's market has finally peaked?


I agree with the OP here, without doubt!.
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 30, 2019 11:54 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Has the Boston condo market finally peaked? Reply with quote

NuttyBoston wrote:
I wanted to have an opinion of others on my observation. At this time there are many condos listed in Boston and 'inner' suburbs that have been on the market for more than a few weeks or months. Many have seen price cuts as well. This is rather odd for this area. Does it mean that people are no longer interested in buying and the Boston area's market has finally peaked?


You are right. Condo prices are plummeting.

http://realestate.boston.com/buying/2019/08/28/mass-home-prices-up-sales-down/

Metro Boston
Arlington, Belmont, Boston, Brookline, Cambridge, Chelsea, Dedham, Everett, Milton, Newton, Revere, Somerville, Waltham, Watertown, and Winthrop

The selling price for single-family homes rose 9.2 percent, from $740,000 in July 2018 to $808,250 in July 2019. Condo prices decreased 4 percent, from $689,000 in July 2018 to $661,250.
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 234
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:21 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
"Single-family homes still have a few more years to go before they peak."


Have begun a series of Fall Inventory Snapshots. What do fellow BostonBubble readers make of this surprising finding?

#InventoryChat: Comparing 9/3/19 to 5 yrs ago, median & average asking prices of ACTIVE SF listings in #Newton are relatively unchanged, even down when adjusted for inflation.

In contrast, median & average prices in #Dedham have risen by 33% & 58% respectively!


http://bit.ly/NewtonFlat2Falling

Comments welcome here or via #InventoryChat on Twitter. If you share your perspective, can you please disclosure your identity as a buyer, seller, investor, or if real estate professional, whether you're a listing agent or buyer agent? I'm a longtime fee-for-service real estate consultant / buyer agent who's seen boom/bust cycles 1990-1994, 2005-2011.

Got a city or town they'd like to see this Fall vs 5 years ago, 2014?
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The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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