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Deflation from the peak Case Shiller Index

 
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crystalball
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 5:38 am GMT    Post subject: Deflation from the peak Case Shiller Index Reply with quote

I calculated the deflation from the peak Case-Shiller Index for each city in the chart at this link:

http://i251.photobucket.com/albums/gg317/bubbleblog/deflation_all_cities.gif

To create this chart I found the peak CSI for each city and then calculated the percent reduction from the peak for each subsequent month.

Boston peaked the earliest and so it has had the longest downhill run of all of the cities on the index. The rate of deflation in Boston has not been rapid compared with other cities. The 20-city composite seems to be tracking fairly similar to Boston.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2008 3:21 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Miami's looks ugly.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 09, 2008 6:44 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you assume that the average of the last 12 months of year-over-year deflation in Boston continues into the future (at -4.29% per year), this plot shows what the predicted future deflation will be over time:

http://i251.photobucket.com/albums/gg317/bubbleblog/deflation_projection.gif

For comparison, I have also included projected deflation for Seattle if it's current rate of deceleration continues. Seattle has often been described as being "immune" to the housing bubble, but it appears to have peaked in July-07 and it has been decelerating very rapidly over the past year, but probably won't show negative year-over-year until early 2008. The chart above probably is a "worst case" over-estimate of the rate of deflation for Seattle because at some point its deflation will probably slow down like it did in Boston.

Boston seems to closely track the observed deflation of the 20-city CSI.
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crystalball
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2008 2:57 am GMT    Post subject: Deflation from the peak Case Shiller Index Reply with quote

Here is an updated chart of the deflation from the peak Case Shiller Index (CSI) for each city, including the latest data for November 2007:

http://i108.photobucket.com/albums/n11/gpel461/deflation_all_cities_thru_nov07.gif
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crystalball
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 27, 2008 3:35 am GMT    Post subject: updated deflation of Case Shiller index through Dec-07 Reply with quote

The latest Case-Shiller-Index (CSI) just came out. The Boston CSI has deflated by 9.79% as of Dec-07 compared with the peak value in Sep-05.

Here is the updated chart including the latest CSI through Dec-07:

http://i251.photobucket.com/albums/gg317/bubbleblog/deflation_all_cities_thru_dec.gif

To create this chart I found the peak CSI for each city and then calculated the percent reduction from the peak for each subsequent month.
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