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Guest
Guest
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 Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 2:22 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Quote: | To all of you people who are so smart about how the economy works: Can you just please tell us when this big correction will happen, and by what percent
will the housing prices drop? |
Sure. I believe real estate will flatten out in late 2018..By late 2019 I expect interest rates to be much higher, and we will see a stock crash by then leading to reduced GDP and some layoffs. Real-estate will begin it's decline over the next 3 to 4 years that follow at 5-10% per year. My prediction would be a 30-40%.correction over 4 years. |
I don't know what you mean by "much higher" interest rates. Mortgage rates have been below 5% for the last nine years.
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.html
I've been reading this message board for quite some time, and it's been a
common prediction that rates are about to pop soon for years now. The
Fed isn't going to spike interest rates all at once. Washington does not want to cause another housinng crisis that can be avoided.
Rates will inch up over time, allowing the market to adjust and absorb the effects.
I'm not a realtor, and have no agenda in trying to get anyone to buy a house.
Prices may very well come down. I'm just not sure it'll happen they way you predict and by the amount you think. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Sun Mar 25, 2018 12:10 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Quote: | I don't know what you mean by "much higher" interest rates. Mortgage rates have been below 5% for the last nine years.
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I understand this is subjective. However, interest rates have risen 100 basis points(a full point) higher in just the last year. The Fed has stated it will raise at least 3 times this year and then slightly more aggressively in 2019 and 2020. This alone would drive mortgage rates in the mid 6's by 2020. That would be enough to see corrections in my opinion. However, the Fed is also unwinding it's balance sheet by not renewing treasuries they bought when they took our free markets away by buying our own treasuries to artificially lower mortgage rates. They will be at a pace of rolling off 600 billion a year by the end of 2018 and will continue at this pace for years. No doubt this should also put upward pressure on rates. Then there's Trump. Not sure if it's deliberate or not(I tend to think it is-he's smarter than people think). He is doing things that could and should be very inflationary such as the tax cuts and especially tariffs. Inflation should become elevated in the near term which in my opinion will force the Fed to continue, if not accelerate, it's rate rising forecast. Lastly there's China. They can rise our rates simply by not buying as much of out treasuries(our debt) or even more so buying selling some they already own. Given the beginnings of a trade war no one can say for certain this is off the table. |
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Guest
Guest
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| Posted: Mon Mar 26, 2018 2:54 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Quote: | I don't know what you mean by "much higher" interest rates. Mortgage rates have been below 5% for the last nine years.
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I understand this is subjective. However, interest rates have risen 100 basis points(a full point) higher in just the last year. The Fed has stated it will raise at least 3 times this year and then slightly more aggressively in 2019 and 2020. This alone would drive mortgage rates in the mid 6's by 2020. That would be enough to see corrections in my opinion. However, the Fed is also unwinding it's balance sheet by not renewing treasuries they bought when they took our free markets away by buying our own treasuries to artificially lower mortgage rates. They will be at a pace of rolling off 600 billion a year by the end of 2018 and will continue at this pace for years. No doubt this should also put upward pressure on rates. Then there's Trump. Not sure if it's deliberate or not(I tend to think it is-he's smarter than people think). He is doing things that could and should be very inflationary such as the tax cuts and especially tariffs. Inflation should become elevated in the near term which in my opinion will force the Fed to continue, if not accelerate, it's rate rising forecast. Lastly there's China. They can rise our rates simply by not buying as much of out treasuries(our debt) or even more so buying selling some they already own. Given the beginnings of a trade war no one can say for certain this is off the table. |
That the Fed says they'll raise rates 3 times doesn't mean they will, and even if they do, it could be .!% each time. I'd be very surprised if it went up to 6% within 2 years.
As for inflation, I'm very concerned about that. And I'm not sure Trump is as smart as you think he might be. Until recently, he's had a cabinet and advisors to reign him in. But now he's surrounding himself with sycophants that worry me.
We'll see how all this plays out. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Thu Mar 29, 2018 6:32 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| If only I could short the predictions by the psychics on this thread. Maybe I'd be able to afford a $2 million house! |
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Guest
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| Posted: Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:53 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Anonymous wrote: | | If only I could short the predictions by the psychics on this thread. Maybe I'd be able to afford a $2 million house! |
Many people have been calling the bottom since 2009. The broken clock bears won't know what to do once it comes because they still won't buy. I strongly doubt anyone getting a house in a decent area for 40% off at the next bottom unless it's a cash only forclosure sale and needs a lot of work. Unless you consider Mattapan to be a decent area. |
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Guest
Guest
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| Posted: Sat Mar 31, 2018 1:24 am GMT Post subject: |
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So then my question is both about the buyers of these properties (and all seemingly overpriced properties for that matter), and the loan underwriting requirements. Can such buyers actually afford them? Do they have incomes that mortgage companies deem sufficient and secure enough to sustain the loan? Or are big purchases like these just really easy to get?
If so, then we're back in the danger zone of the subprime days.
If not, then these prices are basically what the market can bear, and there are a lot of well comensated people out there. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:10 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Guest wrote: |
So then my question is both about the buyers of these properties (and all seemingly overpriced properties for that matter), and the loan underwriting requirements. Can such buyers actually afford them? Do they have incomes that mortgage companies deem sufficient and secure enough to sustain the loan? Or are big purchases like these just really easy to get?
If so, then we're back in the danger zone of the subprime days.
If not, then these prices are basically what the market can bear, and there are a lot of well comensated people out there. |
Not hard to find $250K+ household incomes in these parts. |
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bostonlilypad
Guest
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| Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2018 2:24 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Guest wrote: |
So then my question is both about the buyers of these properties (and all seemingly overpriced properties for that matter), and the loan underwriting requirements. Can such buyers actually afford them? Do they have incomes that mortgage companies deem sufficient and secure enough to sustain the loan? Or are big purchases like these just really easy to get?
If so, then we're back in the danger zone of the subprime days.
If not, then these prices are basically what the market can bear, and there are a lot of well comensated people out there. |
Not hard to find $250K+ household incomes in these parts. |
Can someone explain it to me like I'm 5, why a higher mortgage rate and higher inflation is actually better than todays low mortgage rates and low inflation? I saw someone write that somewhere in here and I want to make sure I understand why. Thanks! |
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Guest
Guest
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| Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:02 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Guest wrote: |
So then my question is both about the buyers of these properties (and all seemingly overpriced properties for that matter), and the loan underwriting requirements. Can such buyers actually afford them? Do they have incomes that mortgage companies deem sufficient and secure enough to sustain the loan? Or are big purchases like these just really easy to get?
If so, then we're back in the danger zone of the subprime days.
If not, then these prices are basically what the market can bear, and there are a lot of well comensated people out there. |
Not hard to find $250K+ household incomes in these parts. |
Then $1M - $1.5M is fair for expensive towns. |
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Guest
Guest
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| Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2018 3:07 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| bostonlilypad wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Guest wrote: |
So then my question is both about the buyers of these properties (and all seemingly overpriced properties for that matter), and the loan underwriting requirements. Can such buyers actually afford them? Do they have incomes that mortgage companies deem sufficient and secure enough to sustain the loan? Or are big purchases like these just really easy to get?
If so, then we're back in the danger zone of the subprime days.
If not, then these prices are basically what the market can bear, and there are a lot of well comensated people out there. |
Not hard to find $250K+ household incomes in these parts. |
Can someone explain it to me like I'm 5, why a higher mortgage rate and higher inflation is actually better than todays low mortgage rates and low inflation? I saw someone write that somewhere in here and I want to make sure I understand why. Thanks! |
Not sure exactly, but maybe the reasoning would be as follows: People expect that when interest rates go up to 7%, then that $!M house will come down in price. Then at some time in the future when rates come down again,
you refinance an already discounted house at 4%. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2018 5:39 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Guest wrote: | | bostonlilypad wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Guest wrote: |
So then my question is both about the buyers of these properties (and all seemingly overpriced properties for that matter), and the loan underwriting requirements. Can such buyers actually afford them? Do they have incomes that mortgage companies deem sufficient and secure enough to sustain the loan? Or are big purchases like these just really easy to get?
If so, then we're back in the danger zone of the subprime days.
If not, then these prices are basically what the market can bear, and there are a lot of well comensated people out there. |
Not hard to find $250K+ household incomes in these parts. |
Can someone explain it to me like I'm 5, why a higher mortgage rate and higher inflation is actually better than todays low mortgage rates and low inflation? I saw someone write that somewhere in here and I want to make sure I understand why. Thanks! |
Not sure exactly, but maybe the reasoning would be as follows: People expect that when interest rates go up to 7%, then that $!M house will come down in price. Then at some time in the future when rates come down again,
you refinance an already discounted house at 4%. |
Actually, it's more complicated than that. Historical evidence shows that house prices go up when inflation and interest rates go up and vice versa. Why? Usually high inflation and interest rates mean the economy is doing well. The economy is doing well now so rates and house prices will continue to go up. At some point, the economy will tank and interest rates and housing prices will tank as well. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Tue Apr 03, 2018 6:44 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Guest wrote: | | bostonlilypad wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Guest wrote: |
So then my question is both about the buyers of these properties (and all seemingly overpriced properties for that matter), and the loan underwriting requirements. Can such buyers actually afford them? Do they have incomes that mortgage companies deem sufficient and secure enough to sustain the loan? Or are big purchases like these just really easy to get?
If so, then we're back in the danger zone of the subprime days.
If not, then these prices are basically what the market can bear, and there are a lot of well comensated people out there. |
Not hard to find $250K+ household incomes in these parts. |
Can someone explain it to me like I'm 5, why a higher mortgage rate and higher inflation is actually better than todays low mortgage rates and low inflation? I saw someone write that somewhere in here and I want to make sure I understand why. Thanks! |
Not sure exactly, but maybe the reasoning would be as follows: People expect that when interest rates go up to 7%, then that $!M house will come down in price. Then at some time in the future when rates come down again,
you refinance an already discounted house at 4%. |
Actually, it's more complicated than that. Historical evidence shows that house prices go up when inflation and interest rates go up and vice versa. Why? Usually high inflation and interest rates mean the economy is doing well. The economy is doing well now so rates and house prices will continue to go up. At some point, the economy will tank and interest rates and housing prices will tank as well. |
When the economy tanks, a lot of people are afraid to or not in a good position to buy a house.
Bottom line, trying to time the market can be frustrating and pointless.
If you have a good steady income, a down payment, and you feel
you're ready, then buy a house. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:17 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Or try to time the market and end up like the guys complaining on this forum. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2018 12:33 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Anonymous wrote: | | Or try to time the market and end up like the guys complaining on this forum. |
It's tough to time the market and buy at the bottom since the next bottom is almost another decade away. If you are planning to sell, now is a good time since we are almost at the top. Most people are wrong and try to overanalyze the real estate market, but it's just a regular business cycle. |
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