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Justify housing prices in Davis Square
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 4:12 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ecch, Redbones. I was there five years ago, and they were lousy even then. Besides, the only good BBQ in Boston is Jake's Memphis BBQ. Okay, actually they USED to be good, when you had to brave gunfire on Mattapan Ave to get there. He was set up in a trailer catty-corner from a shut-down Popeye's.

Then he moved to Lynn, then came back to Boston and set up shop in Roslindale, but it just wasn't as good. (Texas Roadhouse is awesome, btw.)

Davis Square is FUN to visit, but I would not want to live there! I practically lived on the T when I was a college student, but Davis Square is and was icky. Unsafe, dirty, kind of look over your shoulder kind of place.

The only reason anyone went to Davis Square in the first place is because they were priced out of Hahvahd Square.

The irony is that by my reckoning by 2005 the greedy landlords in Th' Baaahnyahd had put most of their tenants out of business. Except CVS, which is never afraid to operate at a loss. I used to work at the Newton Ctr. CVS. People in Newton have money, so they should have made a mint, right? Wrong! Operating loss!

Heh, I guess I could have rented in Somerville at one point, but I rented in Worcester instead and took the commuter rail to work. It was awrsome!
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 4:34 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Davis Square is FUN to visit, but I would not want to live there! I practically lived on the T when I was a college student, but Davis Square is and was icky. Unsafe, dirty, kind of look over your shoulder kind of place.


Agreed.

I'd even argue that the whole strip, from Davis-to-Teele Sq-to-Broadway/east Arlington isn't anything to write about. Strangely enough, that connection is also the worst neighborhood in Arlington, otherwise a fine, down to earth (but RE overpriced) town to live in. Go figure.

If Union Sq had a T stop, it would have easily trumped Davis because of its Brazilian influence which gives it some flavor, being both an ethnic enclave and a stone's throw from Inman Sq. Places like Davis Sq exists solely because of it's so-called centralize locus, junction of the Porter-Harvard and Tufts folks plus the T stop but unfortunately, it also has that Central Sq issue of being a ratty analog of NYC's lower east side which despite some newer stores, has never really left Central in all its years.
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john p



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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 5:02 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

How about this thought: do you think that some of the folks that graduate college here and who aren't natives with roots in some suburb or other area might all want to live in a common area, you know the centroid of activity among their adopted families (their friends)?

As an architect I was taught that if there was one person in a space, the person would stand in relation to where they felt comfortable in the space. When a second person entered the same space, they tended to find a spot relative to the other person as opposed to the space. I have a feeling that the community in Davis Square, the people is the draw for some. For those that don't have many friends there, they might be scratching their heads. I've been to a few benders over there and it's pretty fun.

Jakes in Waltham is my favorite BBQ place. I'm on his e-mail list so I feel kind of special Smile These are the good old days when it comes to sports and BBQ here in Boston.

If you haven't seen Steve Sweeney, you owe it to yourself to see him. He was the cop on "Something about Mary" who helped Ben Stiller's character with his zipper. "A one, a two, a one two three.." "We've got a bleeder!"
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 6:12 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
How about this thought: do you think that some of the folks that graduate college here and who aren't natives with roots in some suburb or other area might all want to live in a common area, you know the centroid of activity among their adopted families (their friends)?


Yes, that's why I'd brought up Central Sq as an analog (http://www.centralsquarecambridge.com). In a sense, it's that type of region, nestled between Harvard and MIT, and many recent grads hang out there (i.e. Middle East restaurant/club, etc) but yet, it retains a seedy flavor which is more in tune with neighborhoods like the east Village a/o lower east side in Manhattan.

Now in contrast, Union Sq, being a place where there are a lot of long term Brazilian/Portuguese residents, doesn't have that seediness [ yes, it could use better lighting but that's just appearance ] and if the train actually went there, the number of college grads would subsequently increase (though plenty already live there) and it would have more a character of a long standing Allston-Brookline area than a Central Sq. I believe Davis Sq is a less rowdy (more intellectualized) version of Central Sq but with many of the similar pitfalls.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 10:29 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the topic of squares, which ones are the best? (I know this is a matter of opinion)

It seems like harvard sq & central sq are pretty good, and I've heard other people say davis sq wasn't as "seedy" as harvard/central.

Does Coolidge corner classify as a comparable?

And are there any "squares" or similar junctures in the back bay/beacon hill?
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JCK



Joined: 15 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:06 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Central is a mixed bag. Some interesting places, surprisingly good restaurants, but also a fair number of homeless people hang out there, with the associated problems they bring (public drinking, urinating, fighting with each other, etc.). The neighborhoods around Central vary from pretty run down (e.g., towards Kendall) to very nice (e.g., Magazine St, and Harvard St or Franklin St towards Harvard).

Brookline has a lower "seedy" quotient in general. Back Bay doesn't really have squares per se.

Again, you really need to be on the ground the judge these things yourself. Everyone has their own opinion about what they like and don't like.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:08 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Does Coolidge corner classify as a comparable?


Coolidge Corner is an excellent place to live. That's probably the last of the great squares left. I put it above Davis, Harvard, Central, Inman, and much of the rest.

All and all, Brookline's a place of character. It's oriented around a large conservative Jewish community, however, all are welcome (including the now much maligned students). When RE collapses in Boston, provided you can weather the storm (i.e. pay your mortgage and keep some employment), Brookline will remain intact as a community because of this mainstay effect of having a long run community in place. On the other hand, I think that Davis/Central will implode as far as petty theft, general riff-raff, and loss of bubble-generated gentrification value.
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john p



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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:10 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you like the academic , artistic, or research segment with a mix of a diverse blue collar family life you'll like Cambridge.

If you like to be around mostly rich retirees, divorcees, rich europeans, and lawyers or financial folks with some trust fund folks (old money) you'll like the Back Bay and Beacon Hill. Not many children there.

If you like a mixture of socially diverse folks with an artistic and upscale taste with a neighborly down to earth feel, try the South End. You'll see things like a cool old lady sharing her ice cream with her little dog.

Allston and Brighton seem to be a great place for kids right out of college.

Other towns like J.P (artsy and young) and Waltham and Watertown (South End farm teams) are out there. Watertown and Waltham have more families. Arlingtons are the farm team folks for Winchester and Lexington style living.

Brookline is for a mix of B.C., B.U. alumns, medical folks, those that want to do a little Newtonesque living and have nice Tapas and Thai food... It embraces almost every type of professional and seems to be pretty down to earth.

Southie has a cool mix and you need to drive through it and spend some time there to see if it is right for you.

You'll find some areas like Melrose, Wakefield, and Waltham are nice for younger folks that have roots somewhere in the suburbs. They can get into the City and to their Mothers for Sunday dinner. There aren't may places to find singles except the townie spots. You'd need a car to enjoy this type of living

Quincy and Malden are places where it is a bit grittier but extremely diverse and groundedly normal.

Quincy has Marina Bay which is like a newer condominium and social center totally disassociated from a traditional downtown or older fabric. It is younger and fun, check out Waterworks and see if that is for you.

The Charlestown Navy Yard would be one of the few places I'd consider to live if I were single only because I need real peace and quiet to feel balanced...
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john p



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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:16 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marina Bay was Tom Brady when he was a young Patriot totally thrilled to win a new pick-up truck at the end of his first Superbowl.

The Back Bay is where he is now; now that he is an established dignified pretty boy and Hall of Fame superstar.
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JCK



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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:26 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

john p wrote:
If you like the academic , artistic, or research segment with a mix of a diverse blue collar family life you'll like Cambridge.

If you like to be around mostly rich retirees, divorcees, rich europeans, and lawyers or financial folks with some trust fund folks (old money) you'll like the Back Bay and Beacon Hill. Not many children there.

If you like a mixture of socially diverse folks with an artistic and upscale taste with a neighborly down to earth feel, try the South End. You'll see things like a cool old lady sharing her ice cream with her little dog.

Allston and Brighton seem to be a great place for kids right out of college.

Other towns like J.P (artsy and young) and Waltham and Watertown (South End farm teams) are out there. Watertown and Waltham have more families. Arlingtons are the farm team folks for Winchester and Lexington style living.

Brookline is for a mix of B.C., B.U. alumns, medical folks, those that want to do a little Newtonesque living and have nice Tapas and Thai food... It embraces almost every type of professional and seems to be pretty down to earth.

Southie has a cool mix and you need to drive through it and spend some time there to see if it is right for you.

You'll find some areas like Melrose, Wakefield, and Waltham are nice for younger folks that have roots somewhere in the suburbs. They can get into the City and to their Mothers for Sunday dinner. There aren't may places to find singles except the townie spots. You'd need a car to enjoy this type of living

Quincy and Malden are places where it is a bit grittier but extremely diverse and groundedly normal.

Quincy has Marina Bay which is like a newer condominium and social center totally disassociated from a traditional downtown or older fabric. It is younger and fun, check out Waterworks and see if that is for you.

The Charlestown Navy Yard would be one of the few places I'd consider to live if I were single only because I need real peace and quiet to feel balanced...


Much better than I could ever do.
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JCK



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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:34 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boston ITer wrote:
On the other hand, I think that Davis/Central will implode as far as petty theft, general riff-raff, and loss of bubble-generated gentrification value.


I would disagree, in that I think the long term trends of Central are generally good. The housing stock (even in the so-called housing bust) is quietly and slowly being refurbished and revitalized. Nothing dramatic, but I really think that Cambridge was badly victimized by rent control and absentee landlords. The rent control suppressed property values, which, in turn, discouraged investment. That's done with now, and I think that the 30 year backlog on maintenance is slowly working its way through the system.

These trends begun before the 2000-2005 run-up in prices and, to my eye, haven't stopped. The riff-raff and petty theft have been pretty constant throughout, the rise in values for condos in Cambridge hasn't been as excessive as other parts of the state/country. The location and neighborhoods are for the most part nice, even if Central itself can be a bit seedy at times.

Brookline is definitely a wealthier area. You wouldn't go wrong living there.
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SuperBreakout



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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 11:54 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I rent in Davis square and I really like the neighborhood. It's too expensive to buy in as the relatively rare single family homes in the area all seem to be quite large. It's got plenty of good places to eat (Diva, Gargoyle's, Sabur) and is only a few minutes away from Arlington center, Inman, Porter or Harvard. Davis being on the red line is a huge plus as I hate driving / parking in Boston proper. I like that I can walk to all the main services - post office, groceries, library, etc. and love that my barber waves hello whenever I walk past his shop. I get a strong sense of community living here. In addition to tons and tons of Tufts students there are plenty of young families. Proximity to 93 for my commute north is good as well.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 1:43 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

john p wrote:

I logged on to one of the "ask the expert" blogs on the Globe's website and asked a very basic question: What is the average percentage off of asking that the typical accepted offers are coming in at? The "expert" gave me the depends crap. Of course it depends, that's why I said "average" and "typical". It's funny how people put themselves out there like experts to answer questions and then don't put their best educated or experienced judgement on the line. I expected the expert to qualify it of course, but to at least say, given all that, I am seeing and hearing that the average is about 10 percent or so off of asking on average. When you say on average, it implies that some are above and some are below but it gives you a sense. If someone says that they have a finger on the pulse they should be able to offer what they are detecting. If someone doesn't go on the line to offer averages, my advice is to find another expert because they either don't have their finger on the pulse or they aren't straight talkers. People want to know what the hell is going on and are dying to get honest feedback and these realtors are like cats playing with mice. If they play cat and mouse with you, be a dog.


Hey John P,

Here is that data for Arlington:

http://paper-money.blogspot.com/2007/10/boston-globes-new-bubble.html

It's not expressed as a percentage, but the data is there. You could probably ask in the comments section where he got the MLS sales data if you want to run it for another town.

That blog entry is on the factual inaccuracies in a recent Globe puff piece on Arlington. Reading the article was reminiscent of the Herald piece on Davis that I posted earlier in this thread.

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john p



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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:02 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks, I'm an addict for data...

I'm reading this Arlington article and I don't see the degree of outrage and here's why:

1. If it is widely reported that the real estate market has dropped in 2006 and into 10 months of 2007, I'd imagine that no houses would be sold over list. The guy reported what, $14,000 off of list as average on the typical $470k list or so. That's only like 3.5% off of list; I mean that's holding up alright considering the broader market. If you told most sellers that they would get 96.5% of their asking price, most would fall out of their chairs in delight. On top of that, a quarter or so had prices go above listing, that's crazy in today's market. It's like buying a car, who pays the sticker price? Who pays above it????

2. There are towns that are hybrid towns like Arlington. Arlington gets those that are priced out of different extremes of lifestyles. One the one hand they are priced out of Cambridge or Boston (one extreme) and out of Winchester, Lexington or Belmont (the other extreme). Arlingtons, as a community would be like the SUV's or the minivans in the past 10 years. Before you had a utility van and a sedan or station wagon. Then, the auto manufacturers decided to hybrid the best of the truck and car to get the SUV and the best of the utility of the van with the comforts of the cars to get the minivan. Just like how the minivan became its own thing/ identity by mixing breeds (labradoodle), you get a new breed. On top of that, you get an emerging community within it growing and it blossoms.

3. Arlington was under the radar because it used to be the second choice to most, kind of like the safety school you apply to. Boston College used to be less selective but now is a top tier program. People used to spend their time trying to get into Cambridge, Winchesters, Lexingtons and got frustated with what they saw so they started to see what they could get in Arlington and then decided to focus on that as their target area. People broadened their searches and found better value towns with more expensive towns surrounding them. I think this article was trying to point out that this behavior was happening. Look at Hanover and Pembroke, they rose significantly because they were cheaper than Norwell, Duxbury etc. If you look at the stock market when it started to crash, don't you remember the anthem of people jumping out of EMC's and looking for "value stocks". The value stocks of today's real estate markets are the Pembrokes and Arlingtons. I don't think that all hybrid towns will behave alike. I'm not sure if Waltham and Watertown will make out like Arlington did.

What I think is good about this article is that is makes the Globe aware that if they do have marketing folks veiled as editors and are putting the credibility of the paper on the line they ought to be careful. Just like Arlington emerged, so too could the Boston Herald and the Boston Metro. Integrity is everything for a newspaper.

What I also like about this article is that whenever you are in a mixed market you need to choose your words carefully and qualify the context, the sources etc. I think the Globe has done a reasonable job when you average all the articles together and once in a while you get the perfect well balanced cross section like one of Kim Blanton's recent articles.

Lastly, I think one needs to step away from their own hopes and self interests and try their best to be objective. Sure, there is a lot of noise out there as well as propaganda, but clarity of mind will help you regardless. I have bought last year and I plan to hold for 5 years minimum, so I'm sitting back like an umpire and seeing the balls and strikes. I'm saying, listen to both sides so you see where the other side is going to come at you. Understanding the fundamentals is like a boxer knowing how all the muscles are connected and by watching a twitch in one area telegraphs the ensuing punch that is coming at you. When the game seems like it's going in slow motion, you know you're ready to strike.
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 3:33 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

john p wrote:

I'm reading this Arlington article and I don't see the degree of outrage and here's why:


Well, there's a pretty big disconnect between The Globe's spin and the actual numbers. Your points were that Arlington is not doing horribly, relative to the broader area. That wasn't The Globe's representation, though. They specifically pitched Arlington as "hot" and largely immune to the bubble hangover hitting the rest of the region. This can be seen in the article's title:

Arlington is hottest place in Eastern Mass.
Blend of amenities, convenience keeps town's housing market strong despite slump

Just skimming the body, this certainly makes it sound like Arlington has some sort of immunity:

Quote:

Welcome to Arlington, which is enjoying its own housing bubble while many other communities in Eastern Massachusetts struggle with declining sales and prices. Despite spiking foreclosures and subprime sorrows nationwide, real estate in this suburb northwest of Boston remains freakishly hot. Prices are stable, activity is brisk, and frenzied behavior not seen since the boom years - deliberate underpricing to fuel bidding wars, multiple offers over asking price, tight deadlines for submitting offers - is often routine.


I have added emphasis to some of the portions which are contrary to what the actual numbers would suggest. I think the Paper Economy author did a good job of showing that these descriptions are baseless and counter to reality.

Now, you could argue that the article wasn't factually incorrect (largely because it was devoid of useful numbers) and that the adjectives are subjective, but I had multiple people from Arlington email me the article and comment that it's not a good sign for prospective buyers, so the impression given off is at least misleading.

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