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PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:30 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Don't be such a simpleton. The IP on CRISPR was just worked out. In favor of the Harvard & MIT spinoff companies. Do you really imagine that the ability to edit genomes will have no successful commercial applications? If you don't like that particular example, what about the arrival of GE? Do you realize that some of the world's best selling drugs were developed in Boston? See Enbrel, for example. All of the world's major RNA drug companies are in Boston. This city has the second largest financial sector in the US.


No one is denying the validatity of the sector. It's simply the inflated valuations which allow the outsized incomes and excess hiring.

What I'm trying to convey is, at the top of the 2001 bubble.. What was considered "normal" was anything but. And it's hard to realize that if you have entered the workforce in the last 5 years


I get it. But we're talking about biomedical advances that are tangible, in my one example of CRISPR. There are other tangible examples, if you want to get into organoids, tissue engineering, etc. and I haven't even touched on IT in Boston. This ain't pets.com. Not that I think you're totally wrong - Snapchat, for example, has no value. It's just that we have a lot in Boston, a very resilient and diverse economy, with a proven track record, and we are now a world-class destination. You underestimate the innovation that drives our local economy.

By the way, I entered the workforce in earnest in 2006. I was a grad student in '01, when the sh!t hit the fan. So I've seen two epic crashes in my adult life, and managed just fine through the worst financial downturn since the Great Depression.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:38 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Don't be such a simpleton. The IP on CRISPR was just worked out. In favor of the Harvard & MIT spinoff companies. Do you really imagine that the ability to edit genomes will have no successful commercial applications? If you don't like that particular example, what about the arrival of GE? Do you realize that some of the world's best selling drugs were developed in Boston? See Enbrel, for example. All of the world's major RNA drug companies are in Boston. This city has the second largest financial sector in the US.


No one is denying the validatity of the sector. It's simply the inflated valuations which allow the outsized incomes and excess hiring.

What I'm trying to convey is, at the top of the 2001 bubble.. What was considered "normal" was anything but. And it's hard to realize that if you have entered the workforce in the last 5 years


Cambridge/Boston is fairly diversified: government, higher education, biotech/pharma, tech (google, microsoft), some finance, etc. Startups contribute, but large caps are very important. Seaport, Kendall, East Cambridge have greatly expanded corporate footprints from even five years ago, with parking lots now housing 2000 high-paying jobs. Sure if the economy completely tanks then yeah there would be a strain on housing prices. Those offices and labs are here to stay, though.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 5:42 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Don't be such a simpleton. The IP on CRISPR was just worked out. In favor of the Harvard & MIT spinoff companies. Do you really imagine that the ability to edit genomes will have no successful commercial applications? If you don't like that particular example, what about the arrival of GE? Do you realize that some of the world's best selling drugs were developed in Boston? See Enbrel, for example. All of the world's major RNA drug companies are in Boston. This city has the second largest financial sector in the US.


No one is denying the validatity of the sector. It's simply the inflated valuations which allow the outsized incomes and excess hiring.

What I'm trying to convey is, at the top of the 2001 bubble.. What was considered "normal" was anything but. And it's hard to realize that if you have entered the workforce in the last 5 years


I think you are confusing San Francisco with Boston. The vast majority of the good paying jobs in Boston are generated by profitable companies. Yes their stock prices are high, but the entire stock market is overvalued but not a bubble yet. There is no evidence of excessive hiring of useless people who were simply paid high salaries to sit around like in the last tech bubble. If fact the opposite is true. Companies are trying to squeeze more productivity from their existing workers than add workers. Most people are working harder now and making about the same salaries as 15 years ago.
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 2:32 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spoken like a true young kid that doesn't know what he's talking about. Anyone who thinks Boston's real estate valuations are substantiated on job growth deserves what they get when it pops. How come prices dropped 30% in the 80's? In the 90's? In 2007-2008? Wasn't Boston still located in the same place then? As in every bubble, companies swell and salaries rise. Buyers buy and the bubble increases. This time however, Boston was already in a bubble. Years of easy Fed money and rates has artificially created mediocre jobs and low unemployment. These workers are swallowing up the low end 500-850k creating and bigger bubble. Now, as rates rise and the Fed shrinks it's 4-1/2 trillion balance sheet, sit back and watch jobs and prices. Hiring will slow. Salaries will stagnate and prices will correct. Throw in a terrorist attack or war and one can only imagine just how severe this will be? Sound far fetched? Look at the global military situation were in. Even if your only in your 30'S try reading up on some history of just where this is most likely headed. As for the Fed Bank, they have already made their intentions crystal clear. Yet, you think this is a "good time to buy"? I've mad millions in real estate. For you that thinks this is normal and substantiated I say good luck to you and hopefully the Fed Bank won't bail your stupidity out again this crash. The prudent people already paid the price over the last decade for ignorance.
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Guest






PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 3:19 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Real Estate Guy wrote:
Spoken like a true young kid that doesn't know what he's talking about. Anyone who thinks Boston's real estate valuations are substantiated on job growth deserves what they get when it pops. How come prices dropped 30% in the 80's? In the 90's? In 2007-2008? Wasn't Boston still located in the same place then? As in every bubble, companies swell and salaries rise. Buyers buy and the bubble increases. This time however, Boston was already in a bubble. Years of easy Fed money and rates has artificially created mediocre jobs and low unemployment. These workers are swallowing up the low end 500-850k creating and bigger bubble. Now, as rates rise and the Fed shrinks it's 4-1/2 trillion balance sheet, sit back and watch jobs and prices. Hiring will slow. Salaries will stagnate and prices will correct. Throw in a terrorist attack or war and one can only imagine just how severe this will be? Sound far fetched? Look at the global military situation were in. Even if your only in your 30'S try reading up on some history of just where this is most likely headed. As for the Fed Bank, they have already made their intentions crystal clear. Yet, you think this is a "good time to buy"? I've mad millions in real estate. For you that thinks this is normal and substantiated I say good luck to you and hopefully the Fed Bank won't bail your stupidity out again this crash. The prudent people already paid the price over the last decade for ignorance.


The decision to buy should be based on the individual circumstances and goals. Like investing in the stock market, if finances afford the ability to ride out downturns/volatility, then in the long run you should expect a positive real return from real estate (even if you bought at the previous peaks in the 80s, 90s, etc.). Trying to time bottoms often leads to missed opportunities, but it does depend on the individual risk tolerance/finances.

Sure, housing prices can decrease in nominal terms due to recessions potentially precipitated by exogenous shocks such as terrorist attacks and wars. Many times the decrease in housing was felt in real terms though, i.e. flat prices for years. This scenario is a bit less painful to forced sellers (though commissions are lost so there still is pain). At least at these low interest rates, a decent percentage of payment goes to principal.

Boston and Cambridge have changed over the decades: loss of rent control, expansion of subways, massive growth in lab/office space with more development slated in the near future. Yeah, job loss would lead to some temporary vacancies, and there certainly could be a bit of an oversupply, but in the event of a downturn those buildings will not stay below capacity forever.
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Guest






PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:40 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Real Estate Guy wrote:
Spoken like a true young kid that doesn't know what he's talking about. Anyone who thinks Boston's real estate valuations are substantiated on job growth deserves what they get when it pops. How come prices dropped 30% in the 80's? In the 90's? In 2007-2008? Wasn't Boston still located in the same place then? As in every bubble, companies swell and salaries rise. Buyers buy and the bubble increases. This time however, Boston was already in a bubble. Years of easy Fed money and rates has artificially created mediocre jobs and low unemployment. These workers are swallowing up the low end 500-850k creating and bigger bubble. Now, as rates rise and the Fed shrinks it's 4-1/2 trillion balance sheet, sit back and watch jobs and prices. Hiring will slow. Salaries will stagnate and prices will correct. Throw in a terrorist attack or war and one can only imagine just how severe this will be? Sound far fetched? Look at the global military situation were in. Even if your only in your 30'S try reading up on some history of just where this is most likely headed. As for the Fed Bank, they have already made their intentions crystal clear. Yet, you think this is a "good time to buy"? I've mad millions in real estate. For you that thinks this is normal and substantiated I say good luck to you and hopefully the Fed Bank won't bail your stupidity out again this crash. The prudent people already paid the price over the last decade for ignorance.


My my, aren't you taking things a bit too seriously for someone who has had such tremendous success. It's almost like you're just a regular schmuck.
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 5:02 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm 40 and retired, what's your excuse for trolling a bubble forum? My anger results for my kids that will have to wait until this market corrects to settle in. Most likely buying back at a 20% discount from schmuck's like you, or your bank.
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Guest






PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 5:05 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Real Estate Guy wrote:
I'm 40 and retired, what's your excuse for trolling a bubble forum? My anger results for my kids that will have to wait until this market corrects to settle in. Most likely buying back at a 20% discount from schmuck's like you, or your bank.


Pony up the bucks for your kids or piss off.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 5:52 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:


Pony up the bucks for your kids or piss off.


Most successful people prefer their kids to make their own way (backstopping only to prevent issues).. otherwise we would have a society of useless people

i will say this, if there is a huge bio breakthrough, it can certainly feed and sustain crazy boston-metro house prices for 10-15 years. In the same way the 'social media trend' has fed silicon valley for the last 10-15 years...
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 8:52 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting comments about a bio break through. I honestly don't know enough about bio, but would be surprised if it has the legs to drive a real estate market like the internet breakthrough did back late 90's and through 2007. The internet boom employed millions and made new money as ever company created web sites, online services, etc. Very broad and powerful. And back then the Fed Bank wasn't feeding the market, it grew on its own mostly. Today, we are coming off a decade of easy money and stimulus. I am suspicious that bio can ignite something to sustain(and grow) a real estate market so propped up. As for my kids(or anybody's kids), I agree with your comments. I will certainly help but not "spoil" their entry into real estate. However, I will give them pretty basic advice: "Buy low. Sell high". If your right on Bio, I would still recommend waiting a year or two to see if this "bump" in prices continues. Better to buy a couple years into a bull run then at the end of one. My hope in writing on this forum is to hope to help even a few from the true pain associated with buying "at the top". I have been fortunate and hope others success......even the "Schmuck" that probably already bought too high. I can hear it now: "Hi Mr. Schmuck. There was 20 offers on the property today at the open house. All were well over ask, BUT your in Luck, the seller liked yours the best. Congratulations!" No sign of a bubble hear.....moving on.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:28 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Real Estate Guy wrote:
Interesting comments about a bio break through. I honestly don't know enough about bio, but would be surprised if it has the legs to drive a real estate market like the internet breakthrough did back late 90's and through 2007. The internet boom employed millions and made new money as ever company created web sites, online services, etc. Very broad and powerful. And back then the Fed Bank wasn't feeding the market, it grew on its own mostly. Today, we are coming off a decade of easy money and stimulus. I am suspicious that bio can ignite something to sustain(and grow) a real estate market so propped up. As for my kids(or anybody's kids), I agree with your comments. I will certainly help but not "spoil" their entry into real estate. However, I will give them pretty basic advice: "Buy low. Sell high". If your right on Bio, I would still recommend waiting a year or two to see if this "bump" in prices continues. Better to buy a couple years into a bull run then at the end of one. My hope in writing on this forum is to hope to help even a few from the true pain associated with buying "at the top". I have been fortunate and hope others success......even the "Schmuck" that probably already bought too high. I can hear it now: "Hi Mr. Schmuck. There was 20 offers on the property today at the open house. All were well over ask, BUT your in Luck, the seller liked yours the best. Congratulations!" No sign of a bubble hear.....moving on.


Honest question: If not in real estate (perhaps partially due to the expectation of increasing interest rates which equate to lower bond prices), where are you putting your savings? Stocks? International? Except for the latter, they all seem a bit toppy.

Buying at the top is not the worst thing in the world if you can ride out the volatility and bad times (a tough ask for sure). Holding local real estate from 2005 would still have proved to be a decent investment.
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Real Estate Guy
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:17 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a great question. I chose to park a lot in cash back in 2007-2009. When the stock market tanked I bought back in somewhat. Starting in 2010, and through 2013 I reinvested heavily in residential(buying at the then market). In 2014 I continued developing but not acquiring. Now, over the last 2 years, I have resold purchases from a few years back and still holding a few to sell next year as I believe we still have time. However, now I'm conservative. Purchased some silver/metals. I'm investing in "chosen" stocks(ie;Telsa), but I am not investing in residential as personally I believe we're at the top. As rates rise, commercial property(residential apartments and retail/office) is starting to come down. Commercial always comes down faster because it's returns are directly correlated. This differs in residential as foreign money and people needing a place to live can alter demand(as we're seeing now). So currently, I parked in some cash, metals, and restructructuring some existing debt. For me, I see no value short term in residential. As you said, if you bought in 2005 you'd be OK now.....but now is 12 years later. That's not a good investment in my eyes, and still quite lucky to even have any return thanks to manipulation by the Fed Bank which may not be there this next time. As far as IRA's, 529 plans etc, I never changed coarse on those do to my age and not needing it for a while do keeping higher risk seems appropriate. However, when it comes to making shorter turn investment profit(which for me is salary), I maneuver markets to where I think are low/ripe for expansion and avoid the stuff already propped up. This is a tough time for sure, because as you mentioned everything is frothy, but I do think there is room in metals, selective stocks, commercial......and at some point in residential after it resets/corrects.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:44 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Real Estate Guy wrote:
Interesting comments about a bio break through. I honestly don't know enough about bio, but would be surprised if it has the legs to drive a real estate market like the internet breakthrough did back late 90's and through 2007. The internet boom employed millions and made new money as ever company created web sites, online services, etc. Very broad and powerful. And back then the Fed Bank wasn't feeding the market, it grew on its own mostly. Today, we are coming off a decade of easy money and stimulus. I am suspicious that bio can ignite something to sustain(and grow) a real estate market so propped up. As for my kids(or anybody's kids), I agree with your comments. I will certainly help but not "spoil" their entry into real estate. However, I will give them pretty basic advice: "Buy low. Sell high". If your right on Bio, I would still recommend waiting a year or two to see if this "bump" in prices continues. Better to buy a couple years into a bull run then at the end of one. My hope in writing on this forum is to hope to help even a few from the true pain associated with buying "at the top". I have been fortunate and hope others success......even the "Schmuck" that probably already bought too high. I can hear it now: "Hi Mr. Schmuck. There was 20 offers on the property today at the open house. All were well over ask, BUT your in Luck, the seller liked yours the best. Congratulations!" No sign of a bubble hear.....moving on.


It's nice to try to time the market, but when real estate cycles average almost 18 years from bottom to bottom or top to top, it's hard to wait. If you wait 18 years, your kids are already grown. 1974, 1992, 2010 and the next bottom of the cycle will be in 2028. There are small recessions that happen between the 18 year cycles, but they are just speed bumps along the way. The previous top was in 2005 so the next top will be in 2023.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 3:41 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Real Estate Guy wrote:
Interesting comments about a bio break through. I honestly don't know enough about bio, but would be surprised if it has the legs to drive a real estate market like the internet breakthrough did back late 90's and through 2007. The internet boom employed millions and made new money as ever company created web sites, online services, etc. Very broad and powerful. And back then the Fed Bank wasn't feeding the market, it grew on its own mostly. Today, we are coming off a decade of easy money and stimulus. I am suspicious that bio can ignite something to sustain(and grow) a real estate market so propped up. As for my kids(or anybody's kids), I agree with your comments. I will certainly help but not "spoil" their entry into real estate. However, I will give them pretty basic advice: "Buy low. Sell high". If your right on Bio, I would still recommend waiting a year or two to see if this "bump" in prices continues. Better to buy a couple years into a bull run then at the end of one. My hope in writing on this forum is to hope to help even a few from the true pain associated with buying "at the top". I have been fortunate and hope others success......even the "Schmuck" that probably already bought too high. I can hear it now: "Hi Mr. Schmuck. There was 20 offers on the property today at the open house. All were well over ask, BUT your in Luck, the seller liked yours the best. Congratulations!" No sign of a bubble hear.....moving on.


It's nice to try to time the market, but when real estate cycles average almost 18 years from bottom to bottom or top to top, it's hard to wait. If you wait 18 years, your kids are already grown. 1974, 1992, 2010 and the next bottom of the cycle will be in 2028. There are small recessions that happen between the 18 year cycles, but they are just speed bumps along the way. The previous top was in 2005 so the next top will be in 2023.


For primary residence, timing is probably not as important/realistic as long as you plan/can stay put for a reasonably long time frame. From an investment strategy (i.e. Real Estate Guy), there certainly may be more profitable avenues present now. Tough to argue that the returns since 2012 will continue at the same pace. I never got into real estate (other than to live...). I have seen several colleagues buy condos either as long-term rentals or AirBNB; they have done OK so far. These folks see real estate as risk-free returns, though.
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