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Low inventory for 2017
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Real Estate Guy
Guest





PostPosted: Thu Jul 13, 2017 12:52 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/12/higher-interest-rates-send-mortgage-applications-tanking.html?recirc=taboolainternal
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 234
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Thu Jul 13, 2017 1:34 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guest, I appreciate your reasoned tone, and agree that others can and do have well reasoned perspectives that differ. Anyone reading other bubble blogs or following people monitoring the bubble on twitter? I'd recommend:

http://Twitter.com/MrMarkHanson

http://Twitter.com/JohnWake

Other recommendations for who to follow / read?

Bonus question

Anyone on this list taking or recently graduated from a Homebuying 101 course? What did they say about whether this is a good time to buy? Their talking points, for and against?

Did outside guests offer multiple perspectives or veiled sales pitches? Asking, in past, because housing counseling programs receive both state and federal funding and some would say they're too close to the real estate cartel. (Never heard that term, search #RECartel on Twitter.)
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Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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Guest






PostPosted: Thu Jul 13, 2017 9:32 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tufts nurses are striking this week. They already make $45/hr but want more because Brigham's nurses make $56/hr. This is basically 6-figure salary. Not bad for their education and job security, considering that primary care doctors make about the same amount of money with a lot more schooling and much more brutal hours. This city has a lot of people with jobs like these. Add in teachers, college deans, firefighters, police, town councils etc it's a lot of people making six figures or close to it for what used to be $50k jobs.

This is part of the reason why Boston can sustain such high housing prices. Put two average ho-hum nurses in a household and you can basically afford as much house as two physicians (who have greater student debt and later ROI).

How long this patronage system will last in Massachusetts though before our state turns into Illinois, that's a totally different question.
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Guest






PostPosted: Thu Jul 13, 2017 11:37 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:


How long this patronage system will last in Massachusetts though before our state turns into Illinois, that's a totally different question.


Actually it will last a very long time. In a socialist state like MA, even journeyman plumbers and electricians get at least 90/hr to sit around in case they are needed in many of the towers going up in the Boston area. According to union rules, they can't even pick up the trash. We will pay California sky high taxes long before we ever become like Illinois.
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Elrond



Joined: 27 Feb 2013
Posts: 48
Location: Boston, MA

PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 1:40 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

RealEstateCafe wrote:
3. Buying in groups. If individuals are priced out, why not buy together.


I know of 2 separate groups who recently purchased in Cambridge and Somerville doing just this. One pair of couples purchased a 2-family in Somerville, and another 2 individuals bought a SFR in Cambridge together and just share the house as roommates.

They felt it was the only way they could get something that they thought was worthwhile.
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Elrond



Joined: 27 Feb 2013
Posts: 48
Location: Boston, MA

PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 1:50 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Tufts nurses are striking this week. They already make $45/hr but want more because Brigham's nurses make $56/hr. This is basically 6-figure salary. Not bad for their education and job security, considering that primary care doctors make about the same amount of money with a lot more schooling and much more brutal hours. This city has a lot of people with jobs like these. Add in teachers, college deans, firefighters, police, town councils etc it's a lot of people making six figures or close to it for what used to be $50k jobs.

This is part of the reason why Boston can sustain such high housing prices. Put two average ho-hum nurses in a household and you can basically afford as much house as two physicians (who have greater student debt and later ROI).

How long this patronage system will last in Massachusetts though before our state turns into Illinois, that's a totally different question.


I know ED nurses who earn $200k+ in Boston and California. The Herald has an online database of lots of Massachusetts tax-paid incomes. You'd have to scroll for a long time to find anyone who isn't making six figures if you sort by gross earnings.

http://www.bostonherald.com/news_opinion/databases/payroll
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 234
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 2:28 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Has someone cast a spell on Salem State University that enable visiting professors to make that kind of money?

Regardless, over the past three real estate cycles, some colorful analogies / metaphors have developed to poke fun at bad decisions & bad timing. Some may remember that Boston Globe / Banker & Tradesman columnist Nena Groskind used to joke about wearing a t-shirt that read:

"I did it on top,"

Despite her knowledge of the industry, she bought at the top of the market cycle, my guess is that was sometime around 1987. One of the instructors in Harvard's Homebuying course, who arguably should have known better, also acknowledged buying at the top of a more recent cycle and being upside down on her mortgage.

Real Estate Guy, did you ever hear this one: "What's the difference between an STD and a condo?"

Anyone know the answer at the time this joke was making the rounds?
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Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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Real Estate Guy
Guest





PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 3:49 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can't say I do @RealEstateCafe. I'm looking forward to hearing the answer on this one😎........
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Real Estate Guy
Guest





PostPosted: Fri Jul 14, 2017 6:18 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://time.com/money/4855035/4-5-trillion-unwind-balance-sheet/
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Guest






PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 10:31 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:


Regardless, over the past three real estate cycles, some colorful analogies / metaphors have developed to poke fun at bad decisions & bad timing. Some may remember that Boston Globe / Banker & Tradesman columnist Nena Groskind used to joke about wearing a t-shirt that read:

"I did it on top,"

Despite her knowledge of the industry, she bought at the top of the market cycle, my guess is that was sometime around 1987. One of the instructors in Harvard's Homebuying course, who arguably should have known better, also acknowledged buying at the top of a more recent cycle and being upside down on her mortgage.


Historically, the real estate cycles usually last around 20 years. If 1987 was a top and 2006 was another top, the next top will come around 2025, give or take a year. Don't listen to the fools who have been predicting crashes since 2013. It's highly unlikely you will see a crash any time soon. 2025 is probably judgement day, so you need to prepare for it.

What you should do depends on your situation. If you can wait, then you should wait.
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RealEstateCafe



Joined: 11 Dec 2007
Posts: 234
Location: Cambridge, MA

PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 2:26 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guest, not talking about a crash, talking about a correction.

If you revisit headlines from 2nd half of 2016, you'll hear Keller Williams CEO (not fools) saying beware of housing headwinds. You'll see signs in the market of unsold inventory:

http://bit.ly/UnSoldBosRE

After Trump's stick market sugar high wears off, we will look back on signs and warnings that 2016 was the turning point and agree?

The housing market in Boston peaked in 2005, at least if you were a buyer looking to save six figures. Those kind of savings became possible in 2006 and persisted for years as properties sold below their assessed value:

http://bit.ly/BelowAV2006
_________________
Bill Wendel
The Real Estate Cafe
Serving a menu of money-saving services since 1995
97a Garden St.
Cambridge, MA 02138
617-661-4046
realestatecafe@gmail.com
http://realestatecafe.com/blog
http://twitter.com/RealEstateCafe
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Guest






PostPosted: Sat Jul 15, 2017 4:57 pm GMT    Post subject: Cambridge is HOT Reply with quote

Perhaps a little irrational exuberance in pricing here? Witness 67 Walker St. #4, 600 Sq feet in Cambridge:

Property History

Listed at $559,000 on 6/20/17

Reduced to $534,900 on 7/6/17

Reduced to $499,900 on 7/15/17


https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ma/cambridge/67-walker-st/pid_18571730/
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Guest






PostPosted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 3:58 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Cambridge is HOT Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Perhaps a little irrational exuberance in pricing here? Witness 67 Walker St. #4, 600 Sq feet in Cambridge:

Property History

Listed at $559,000 on 6/20/17

Reduced to $534,900 on 7/6/17

Reduced to $499,900 on 7/15/17


https://www.coldwellbankerhomes.com/ma/cambridge/67-walker-st/pid_18571730/


Asking for 900/sqft when everything else is going for less than 600/sqft means the seller doesn't want to sell. Anyway, Cambridge is way overrated.
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Guest






PostPosted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 5:01 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Actually, Cambridge is not overrated if you like being able to walk everywhere, to restaurants, libraries, bars, museums/cultural events, shopping, public transportation, etc. Some people prefer the suburbs with a large yard and having to drive everywhere. As they say, different strokes for different folks. Yes, I will agree Cambridge is quite expensive!
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Guest






PostPosted: Sun Jul 16, 2017 5:04 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

RealEstateCafe wrote:
Guest, I appreciate your reasoned tone, and agree that others can and do have well reasoned perspectives that differ. Anyone reading other bubble blogs or following people monitoring the bubble on twitter? I'd recommend:

http://Twitter.com/MrMarkHanson

http://Twitter.com/JohnWake

Other recommendations for who to follow / read?



I like the thehousingbubbleblog.com. Here is a great discussion about the Fed:

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10146#comments
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