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Newton housing market still hot? guage this listing
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bugelrex



Joined: 24 Feb 2009
Posts: 16

PostPosted: Sun Jan 15, 2017 4:31 am GMT    Post subject: Newton housing market still hot? guage this listing Reply with quote

Been watching the Newton market for a while, some crazy over bids and some sit on market with price cuts.

Trying to figure out 'what' kinds of houses are getting overbid.


https://www.redfin.com/MA/Newton/19-Fessenden-St-02460/home/11417006

Here's a current listing "19 fessenden", I'm going to use this the guage the current market

- location 'looks' decent. Not prime-A, but pleasant
- priced under 1 million. Looks like you could move in with very minor upgrades
- walk to all schools
- great access to park
- If the Newtonville Orr project as planned, less than 1 mile walk to a very nice modern downtown area


What do u guys think? bubble bursting yet?
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:33 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like a decent deal for the area.

I know the area very well. Location is not bad at all, even though it is not the top area of newton. close to 556 and 558 express bus to downtown. stone throw to Albemarle Field. The best part of this location is you are surrounded by super markets! Stop and shops, Shaws, star market, Russo & Sons, BJs, wholefoods and trader Joes.

This one should be sold very quickly, if there was no hidden issue with the house. The only bad things I spot from description are
1. the garage is too small for regular car, might only be a storage space.
2. bed room roof is slanted.

I don't think the bubble has burst in newton yet, as rent still firm in the area, and relatively similar to mortgage. might take an other couple of years at least.

The reality is, any decent house in newton will cost $800,000 or more. Once you go above 1 million mark, you will start to find some good houses. I guess as long as you feel that $900,000 is affordable, then the bubble remains. If one day while interest rate hike make the $900,000 house become un-affordable, then bubble will burst.
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bugelrex



Joined: 24 Feb 2009
Posts: 16

PostPosted: Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:00 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Looks like a decent deal for the area.

I know the area very well. Location is not bad at all, even though it is not the top area of newton. close to 556 and 558 express bus to downtown. stone throw to Albemarle Field. The best part of this location is you are surrounded by super markets! Stop and shops, Shaws, star market, Russo & Sons, BJs, wholefoods and trader Joes.

This one should be sold very quickly, if there was no hidden issue with the house. The only bad things I spot from description are
1. the garage is too small for regular car, might only be a storage space.
2. bed room roof is slanted.

I don't think the bubble has burst in newton yet, as rent still firm in the area, and relatively similar to mortgage. might take an other couple of years at least.

The reality is, any decent house in newton will cost $800,000 or more. Once you go above 1 million mark, you will start to find some good houses. I guess as long as you feel that $900,000 is affordable, then the bubble remains. If one day while interest rate hike make the $900,000 house become un-affordable, then bubble will burst.


Thanks for the local info, I had watched Newton market during the last bubble burst(2009 timeframe). even then houses were slower to sell but prices did not drop like crazy.. they were still selling slightly above the city assessed value.

What shocks me is that most Newton housing is older, in any other location the same house would be considered 'meh'. But anytime a 'somewhat barely liveable' house in Newton comes up, it flies off the shelf.

The final sales price of this house will give a good indication of the market for the rest of spring
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bugelrex



Joined: 24 Feb 2009
Posts: 16

PostPosted: Mon Jan 16, 2017 3:09 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Looks like a decent deal for the area.

I know the area very well. Location is not bad at all, even though it is not the top area of newton. close to 556 and 558 express bus to downtown. stone throw to Albemarle Field. The best part of this location is you are surrounded by super markets! Stop and shops, Shaws, star market, Russo & Sons, BJs, wholefoods and trader Joes.

This one should be sold very quickly, if there was no hidden issue with the house. The only bad things I spot from description are
1. the garage is too small for regular car, might only be a storage space.
2. bed room roof is slanted.

I don't think the bubble has burst in newton yet, as rent still firm in the area, and relatively similar to mortgage. might take an other couple of years at least.

The reality is, any decent house in newton will cost $800,000 or more. Once you go above 1 million mark, you will start to find some good houses. I guess as long as you feel that $900,000 is affordable, then the bubble remains. If one day while interest rate hike make the $900,000 house become un-affordable, then bubble will burst.


Thanks for the local info, I had watched Newton market during the last bubble burst(2009 timeframe). even then houses were slower to sell but prices did not drop like crazy.. they were still selling slightly above the city assessed value.

What shocks me is that most Newton housing is older, in any other location the same house would be considered 'meh'. But anytime a 'somewhat barely liveable' house in Newton comes up, it flies off the shelf.

The final sales price of this house will give a good indication of the market for the rest of spring
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:09 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
I had watched Newton market during the last bubble burst(2009 timeframe). even then houses were slower to sell but prices did not drop like crazy.. they were still selling slightly above the city assessed value.


This is what caught all those could not justify buying at the bottom off guard last time. If you purely look at price tag of houses in towns like newton, brookline, wellesley, you see relatively small price drop, even during the worse time period of 2010 to 2012.

People in decent towns can hold out much longer during economic down turn. Home price will only drop like a stone, if people in the area can't afford to pay the mortgage, and try to dump properties and run.

But in those decent towns, back in 2010 to 2012, at least you could buy much nicer house with the same price, compare to what you could buy in 2007. that is some kind of price cut you will not see by looking at statistic.

And the second wave of price cut was coming from the ultra low interest rate that kicked in later, which made all housing in back then price level became bargains, as long as you could pay for the 20% down payment.
These two waves of price cutting set floor for housing price, and brought it back up very quickly from 2012 to 2014. Home price getting into bubble period since 2014, from my point of view.

one last thing, city assessed value is the most misleading thing. That is a general guideline town calculate so mechanically, based on the most recent home purchase record, and adjust cross board based on market condition annually. Please pay no attention to it when doing your price analytic.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:34 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Quote:
I had watched Newton market during the last bubble burst(2009 timeframe). even then houses were slower to sell but prices did not drop like crazy.. they were still selling slightly above the city assessed value.


This is what caught all those could not justify buying at the bottom off guard last time. If you purely look at price tag of houses in towns like newton, brookline, wellesley, you see relatively small price drop, even during the worse time period of 2010 to 2012.

People in decent towns can hold out much longer during economic down turn. Home price will only drop like a stone, if people in the area can't afford to pay the mortgage, and try to dump properties and run.


You make a very good point of being caught "off guard", I remember seeing about 20% drops and thinking this is only "the start", keep waiting and it will go lower.

However, I do believe if the FED had not artificially lowered the rate, we could have been 30-40% drop for some 'average type' properties in Newton.

BTW, this particular house is also interesting to watch because its the first 'decent' single family I've seen since the rate jump from 3.5% to today's 4.2% so we can see if that is affecting demand much.

We can compare directly with this house on the next street which sold 3 months ao (when rates were 3.5%). Approx same listing price, slightly bigger house/lot but looks more dated, sold 70k above ask

https://www.redfin.com/MA/Newton/114-Albemarle-Rd-02460/home/11416539
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 16, 2017 1:52 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
However, I do believe if the FED had not artificially lowered the rate, we could have been 30-40% drop for some 'average type' properties in Newton.


Agree. People need to adjust and react to outside factors, instead of blindly trusting past statistics and price formula, while doing price analytics. Every market is local, and every price bubble cycle has its uniqueness.

Quote:
https://www.redfin.com/MA/Newton/114-Albemarle-Rd-02460/home/11416539


I personally tour on this one during its open house. Good structure, but needed work. I estimate aroundt $100,000 worth of fixing before it becomes a very decent home.

Bad thing about this property that can not be fixed is, it has a big backyard, very nice. but has absolutely no privacy what-so-ever, due to close neighbor homes on surrounding high grounds.
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Former Arlingtonian



Joined: 23 Oct 2013
Posts: 141

PostPosted: Tue Jan 17, 2017 10:16 pm GMT    Post subject: Is this house in preforelosure? Reply with quote

I just looked this how up in http://www.masslandrecords.com/MiddlesexSouth/Default.aspx

Last two entries are
Street Name Rec. DateSubmit Book/Page Type Desc. Street # Town
FESSENDEN ST 8/1/2014 64017/359 AFFIDAVIT NEWTON
FESSENDEN ST 5/30/2014 63681/278 ORDER OF NOTICE NEWTOn

The owners took out a $500K Mortgage in 2005 and they have a HELOC.

No more detail on the entries??
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:16 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Is this house in preforelosure? Reply with quote

Former Arlingtonian wrote:
I just looked this how up in http://www.masslandrecords.com/MiddlesexSouth/Default.aspx

Last two entries are
Street Name Rec. DateSubmit Book/Page Type Desc. Street # Town
FESSENDEN ST 8/1/2014 64017/359 AFFIDAVIT NEWTON
FESSENDEN ST 5/30/2014 63681/278 ORDER OF NOTICE NEWTOn

The owners took out a $500K Mortgage in 2005 and they have a HELOC.

No more detail on the entries??


Unfortunately, in a good market (assuming multiple offers in Newton) it doesn't matter if the seller is over-leveraged or desperate to sell. It will sell at 'true' or above market value. Listing doesnt mention short sale or pre-forclosure (lis pendings) so I doubt it very much...
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Former Arlingtonian



Joined: 23 Oct 2013
Posts: 141

PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2017 2:49 pm GMT    Post subject: Disagree Reply with quote

Sadly most home buyers never look in Deeds data base to assess the financial pressure that a seller is under -

One day people will just stop paying higher prices and we will get a major correction in prices ...... you just never know if that day is today,tomorrow, next week, or a year from now....?
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:14 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

This house about 0.5 miles west just posted a price cut (down to 920k from 945k)

https://www.redfin.com/MA/Newton/41-Lodge-Rd-02465/home/11433705

Its difficult to compare this one to the two mentioned in this post. But clearing not 'everything' flies off the shelf in Newton

This one looks:
- smaller by 500 sqft (1700 sqft) so layout maybe more cramped
- corner lot, so little privacy and personal use, but yet you have to keep up the yard
- kind itself looks to be missing any charm from the outside
- inside condition looks similar to those two (functional, you can kinda of live with it to save money or splurge and do nice renovation)
- similar school zone. can walk to elementary, much longer walk to middle school and just under 2 miles to newton north


trying to wonder what is so much different to this house than the other two. This house was listing in-between the recent rate hike, so perhaps its just pricing. The pricing does reflect the increase in mortgage rate

I'm assuming fessenden st house won't suffer the same fate.
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victorgbishop



Joined: 03 Oct 2016
Posts: 25

PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:49 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Disagree Reply with quote

Former Arlingtonian wrote:
Sadly most home buyers never look in Deeds data base to assess the financial pressure that a seller is under -

One day people will just stop paying higher prices and we will get a major correction in prices ...... you just never know if that day is today,tomorrow, next week, or a year from now....?


What does the information on the Deeds database tell you? Please be specific because I am new at this. If you could also give an example, albeit fictious, it would be greatly appreciated.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 18, 2017 3:59 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Disagree Reply with quote

victorgbishop wrote:
Former Arlingtonian wrote:
Sadly most home buyers never look in Deeds data base to assess the financial pressure that a seller is under -

One day people will just stop paying higher prices and we will get a major correction in prices ...... you just never know if that day is today,tomorrow, next week, or a year from now....?


What does the information on the Deeds database tell you? Please be specific because I am new at this. If you could also give an example, albeit fictious, it would be greatly appreciated.


The website is masslandrecords. For Newton, you choose "south middlesex"
You can then pick search options to search by name or address.

Anything that affect the 'deeds' of a house will show up here such refi, original mortgage, liens, forclosure

You can then view 'image' of the document to see exactly what the doc is. In this Fessenden case, there is something about forclosure in 2014 but I'm really not what it is exactly. Perhaps they just missed a few payments back then? Its 2-3 years ago so unsure if its relevant today

This info is REALLY handy when the market is soft! But when the market is good/hot then I don't think it help that much
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 1:32 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Disagree Reply with quote

Former Arlingtonian wrote:
Sadly most home buyers never look in Deeds data base to assess the financial pressure that a seller is under -

One day people will just stop paying higher prices and we will get a major correction in prices ...... you just never know if that day is today,tomorrow, next week, or a year from now....?


Most people don't bother to check the daily obituary listings for potential homes before they come onto the market. Sometimes you can get a great deal when you catch surviving family members at their weakest moments. Private transactions are the best way to get a house at below market prices.
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 20, 2017 3:54 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another interesting price point.

This listing just sold for 675k, 75k BELOW original ask. Took almost 3 months to find a seller

https://www.redfin.com/MA/Newton/24-Maynard-St-02465/home/11432825

It must have been one sh**hole, because at that price I can see many first time buyers whose priority is school for their kids, willing to make sacrifice.


I know these post 1950's homes are notorious for poor quality...

with 100k down, the mortgage would have been $2,719, with $500 in taxes. After taxdeductions, the final monthly would be around $2,200 which is similar to a 3rd rent in that location (but probably a MUCH nice place?)
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