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predictions for 2018

 
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 12:13 pm GMT    Post subject: predictions for 2018 Reply with quote

Happy new year!

My prediction is that 2018 will be a tale of 2 markets due to the recent tax changes. Very few people will be trading up for higher property taxes and mortgage interest that they cannot deduct. As a result, there will be too little inventory on the bottom(conventional mortgages) and too much inventory on the top (jumbo mortgages). We will double digit increases in the bottom, flat in the middle and double digit declines in the top.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 2:27 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
We will double digit increases in the bottom, flat in the middle and double digit declines in the top


minimum wage in MA is at $11 now, will get to $15 in next few years. I guess that is where you will get the bottom price increases support from, in the near future. And that is the strongest support for rent increase in the next few years. as the poorest MOFO will be making between 20k to 30k a year soon.

I am still a bit confused by the property tax deduction and mortgage interest rate deduction amount with the new tax cut plan.
Is it 10,000 cap for property tax and 750,000 for mortgage interest rate?

Also the mortgage interest rate hike should be very small and very slow in 2018, I see almost no affect of the housing market on that front. I can't tell how much it would be increased, when all kind of money flooding back in to U.S. with new tax plan. I am guessing it won't get any big increase in 2018.

If all things above are lining up in 2018, shouldn't we see any property below price tag of $900k continues with price hike? The cheaper the price tag, the bigger the price increase potential.
900k minus 20% downpayment can still benefit the max of 750k mortgage deduction. And then any property above 900k will be flat, and higher the price, bigger the price dipping potential?

We already see no cheap entry level condo inventory for a few years now. As you search anything below 350k in metro boston areas now, most you can find are houses in traditional slump towns. And within boston city, most inventory exists in areas that need bullet proof windows. I am guessing 400k is new bottom price starting point, since those who building new condo are demanding way higher salary these days.

The last question for people to think about is, do we see inflow or outflow of population in metro boston area. As we can see and know there are so many new inventory of housing into the market recently, can all these be consumed by enough demand.
Anyone who could provide population inflow/outflow of recent data in different areas in Boston would be greatly appreciated. This should help predict are we into housing over supply status or not. It would be very clear where the price heading next, once we define it.
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 6:56 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

The real estate market will crash
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 01, 2018 10:30 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The real estate market will crash


By saying it will crash just like saying you will die one day. Tell us when and your supporting reasoning, or just shut up.

RE market crash usually caused by economic downturn. I don't see that happening in the coming 2 or 3 years. so 2018 is almost guarantee the RE market will upswing more.
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 3:11 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

The market will crash this year. Interest rates will rise unexpectedly in excess of fed rate hikes due to major bond market sell off. Tax plan will hurt upper end
. Rates will hurt lower end. Demand will drop. Inventory will rise. Boston is over valued and is a bubble waiting to pop. It's popping now, and will accelerate next year and continue for years after to let air out. People who have bought in the last couple years deserve what's coming to them. Hee Hee
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bsg51
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:09 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Guest wrote:
The market will crash this year. Interest rates will rise unexpectedly in excess of fed rate hikes due to major bond market sell off. Tax plan will hurt upper end. Rates will hurt lower end. Demand will drop. Inventory will rise. Boston is over valued and is a bubble waiting to pop. It's popping now, and will accelerate next year and continue for years after to let air out. People who have bought in the last couple years deserve what's coming to them. Hee Hee


I hope you are right. I fear the Fed will not raise rates and will continue to kick the can down the road, inflating the bubble even further.

The overbuilding of "luxury" apartments on seemingly every street corner and how that will play out in 2018 will be interesting....not only in Boston/greater Boston but in every major city across the country.
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:43 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The overbuilding of "luxury" apartments on seemingly every street corner and how that will play out in 2018 will be interesting


This will not be an issue, if inflation keep property price up. Investors will buy those apartments with loan from banks that are willing to lend. They will operate these as rental properties at a income lost, yet still feeling confident, with value gain of those properties on paper.

It is all about interest rate, which I don't think will go up that much this year. So I am not seeing any chance of housing market going down hill in 2018.


Eventually overbuilding will hurt the rental market, then if the economy ever go south for whatever reason, then we are talking about house market crashing. Until then, stagflation is what you get.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 14, 2018 11:26 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

It looks like the crypto currency bubble will implode this year and maybe drag down the stock market into a correction. I'm not sure if it's going to be big enough to trigger a recession or cause any meaningful drop in housing prices. There are some anecdotal stories of people mortgaging their houses or using credit cards to buy crypto currencies, but I doesn't appear to be widespread yet.
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