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Buy or rent? How far away are prices/value?
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moving to boston
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 4:26 pm GMT    Post subject: Buy or rent? How far away are prices/value? Reply with quote

So I'm moving to the Boston area next year. Would like to buy a small condo or SFR but I'm wondering from you locals, how "overvalued" do you think it is? Can you give me some specific examples of properties with their current price and what you think they should be "worth"?

I would be staying there for at least 4-5 years.

I like cambridge, coolidge corner, and longview medical areas but I'm just beginning my search. I'm going to wait to walk around the neighborhoods before looking more seriously.
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john p



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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 4:55 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd rent for a while and get a feel of things to see what aligns with your taste and value structure. If the company is footing the bill, that's another story...
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john p



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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 6:40 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

This guy seems to be on the ball.

http://www.johnakeith.com/
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 7:26 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks John! I'm interested in buying mainly for 2 reasons, we've had a bad experience with management in our current place (maintenance issues), and we have a baby and don't want to have to move again for quite a while. That being said, if the numbers are way out of line or look way overvalued we may wait to see what happens, but I'm just wondering how much prices there are out of wack". I'm coming from CA, so I have an opinion on what I think places are "worth" here, but not in Boston.
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admin
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 04, 2007 9:06 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: Buy or rent? How far away are prices/value? Reply with quote

moving to boston wrote:
So I'm moving to the Boston area next year. Would like to buy a small condo or SFR but I'm wondering from you locals, how "overvalued" do you think it is? Can you give me some specific examples of properties with their current price and what you think they should be "worth"?


While this is for the area in general rather than for a specific property, you may find it useful anyway. Here's a comparison of home prices to incomes over time:

http://www.bostonbubble.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=454

Based on the ratio derived from the S&P/Case-Shiller Index for Boston, the price to income ratio at the end of 2006 was 33.81% above the moving average. This is not a prediction of an expected correction since that may occur through a combination of declining prices and rising incomes.

There is also a futures market for Boston which can be used as a rough approximation (currently very rough due to low volume) of where the market expects prices to be up to five years into the future:

http://www.bostonbubble.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=419

I haven't thought much yet about how to apply these stats for the area to individual properties, but I would like to at some point.

- admin
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john p



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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2007 12:06 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you have a child, I'd look at Melrose or Wakefield.
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john p



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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2007 12:55 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

The most expensive homes are on the coast about 15 miles north or south of the city, the western suburbs near route 2 and to the north of the Mass Pike, and of course the upscale neighborhoods in the City (factor in private school...) The Essex County (north shore) is pretty expensive and more overpriced than the South Shore, in my opinion, but it is very nice. More and more folks are coming down from New Hampshire so the roads are getting more traffic. If due North of Boston is 12:00 am, the more affordable segments are at 7:30pm and 10:00pm. Depending on where your office is and if you get parking, you could either take the MBTA (the train metro Boston) or the commuter rail which extends to the suburbs and either goes to the northern part of city (north station) or south station.

town right on ocean:

http://homes.realtor.com/ ...truncated...

one town from ocean: I think this one was originally $750k

http://homes.realtor.com/ ...truncated...


two towns in from ocean:

http://homes.realtor.com/ ...truncated...

three towns in from ocean:

http://homes.realtor.com/ ...truncated...

If you like to do Sunday's at a trendy Matt Damon kind of place where they wear knit hats and the whole t-shirt over the long sleeve shirt, try Cambridge. If you'd like to do a pajama brunch and like soups and salads try the South End, if you like to wave hi to a bunch of old ladies on your way for a morning pastry try the North End, if you want city and peace and quiet upscale salty dog try the Charlestown Navy Yard, if you want a more mature diverse city environment try Brookline, and outside the city if you want quaint New England village try Newburyport, Marblehead, Hingham, Duxbury. If you want a victorian family town try Melrose and a very traditional community emblematic of a healthy middle class try Wakefield. If you want upscale New England leafy and traditional, try the towns in and around Wellesley. Newton is a safe and quiet city with a dozen downtowns many of which have bus service to downtown Boston. Concord and Lexington are pretty traditional and quiet, and if you want to live where all the Boston cops live try West Roxbury and Rosindale (southwest side of the city).

Editor's Note: This post was edited to abbreviate URLs which were widening the page due to the way that the forum software lays out posts. No other changes have been made, and the URLs still point to the original destinations - only their displays have been shortened.
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john p



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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2007 1:28 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also, if you want to get a feel of how much more the North Shore is relative to the South Shore, compare Topsfield (north shore) to Hanover (south shore). Hanover is where Topsfield was at about 1985 and is much less expensive. The metro west version of these two towns is Foxboro and say, Medfield. Hopkinton is the classic New England young professional bedroom community (the Boston Marathon starts in Hopkinton) Oh, and if you like Desperate Housewives stuff, try Milton. If you're an engineering buff, you'll feel at home in the Merrimack Valley (around Lowell).

So to your original question, I'd think about how you want to enjoy your 4-5 year chapter here in Massachusetts; most people have ties to one area or another and the missed opportunity you'd have is to not choose the shoe that fits right you know....
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JCK



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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2007 1:07 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd definitely suggest renting for at least a few months to give yourself a chance to see what the different areas and towns are like.

There are so many factors: property taxes, schools, commutes, prices, and so on that all need to be taken in to account and properly evaluated.

Keep in mind that with a baby/child, a small condo probably won't be sufficient for too long, and certainly not if you're planning on a second child.

So don't underestimate your space needs initially, and then have to move shortly thereafter. I've seen this happen to a number of people.
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john p



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PostPosted: Fri Oct 05, 2007 2:24 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

That was great advice. I'm a bit odd so take my comments with a grain of salt.

There are some hybrid type urban suburbs that lots of folks enjoy meaning are close to the city, and have a hopping little downtown and usually have MBTA access: Medford, and Somerville have a fun mix of blue collar and white collar, Arlington and Watertown has a smaller amount of blue collar, academic types and families, Winchester and Belmont have mostly white collar...

The ring around Boston called route 128 was built after WW2 (Eisenhower era). So imagine the homes and communities built prior to that are inside of that for the most part and outside you have a mix of old farm communities, post WW2 GI housing developments, and the ensuing 1980's colonials and the current mix of McMansions. Sprinkled around Boston are some smaller cities that were old manufacturing centers. We had lots of textiles and shoe industry here. Cities like Malden, Lynn, Lawrence, Lowell, Framingham, Fall River, Brockton, Waltham and Quincy have a mix of revitalized areas but you'd have to go and visit to get a sense of where it is. Smaller city/suburbs are like: Peabody, Woburn, Stoughton have a certain feel, and other cities like Natick and Salem have a totally different feel. The quieter towns that were farm towns turned into bedroom communities are stratified based on how quiet and accessible they are which usually translates to how expensive they are: top tier: Weston, Dover, Wellesley, Lincoln, second tier: Lynnfield, Topsfield, Needham, Hingham, Sharon, Norwell, Scituate, Westwood. Now between the distinctions I mentioned earlier, you have hybrids of those, say as you transition from a smaller city to a quieter bedroom community. We have a few industrial corridors that are along older arterial roads (usually parallel current highways like 93, Route 3, and 128/ 95. Some of these roads are a bit honkeytonk but they have a charm to them once you get sick of the yuppified perfect communities. I think people are starting to trend for an authentic town with real people with normal issues versus the LL Bean costumes that other "perfect" towns clothe themselves in. When you ever stand in line in a crowded "Whole Foods Supermarket" and you see everyone in their LL Bean outfits going back to their Pottery Barn homes, it's like hearing Michael McDonald all day long like those guys in the 40 year old Virgin.

I have driven tons of neighborhoods all over the State and I swear, when you discover your spot, it's really worth it. The State is awesome. What is funny is that the value structure usually aligns with where people end up. I used to take my dog to a dogpark in Newton, the folks there would trade privacy (living further apart) for access to the city AND, they knew that in order to get a critical mass of quality restaurants, entertainment etc. they knew that they needed to live in a more densly populated area. Now, I go to the Kingston/Duxbury dog park and these folks are all about hearing crickets at night and don't mind the 1 hour plus commute, it's worth it to them...

There are some areas that are totally on to themselves like Marina Bay in Quincy, the towns in Cape Ann, South Boston. The waterfront up to about 10 miles north and south were used for industrial and commercial in the past so you'd be surprised that by looking at a map that towns like Revere, Chelsea, East Boston, Lynn, Dorchester,Quincy aren't the most expensive. Again, between the extremes you get hybrid towns of their own character like Saugus and Abington. Some of these areas are great and I wouldn't be surprised if in 20 years they did become more exclusive. If you want to get a sense of old school traditional culture (for better and worse) living close to these areas will help you see that. I don't know areas like Jamacia Plain, other than Doyles, but I was seen speeding from across 93 once and I jumped off the highway and bushwacked it to get out of sight for a while and ended up at the Eerie Pub; on thing led to another... That was a great night.
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 10:13 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks a lot for all the information guys, it was really helpful. I definitely agree with not getting too small a place and then having to move again. I'd like to have enough room for friends/relatives to stay but I don't think a house is in our budget right now. We're only looking to spend up to 400k, and the real catch is we are going to try and live car-less! It will be a new experience for me since I've lived in CA most of my life. If it doesn't work out and we need to buy a car we will, but I'd rather find a location where we can take public transport and walk to stores, etc.

The other towns look pretty nice but seem a little inconvenient if we don't want to use a car right? We will most likely need easy access to the longwood medical area and want to live in safe, friendly area.

Any suggestions? Smile
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JCK



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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 10:32 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wish you luck. Boston public transportation, while better than most American cities, is unfortunately not a great substitute for a car. I live in Cambridge, and my wife and I do just fine with one car, but I can't say I'd want to go totally car free. The T is primarily a hub and spoke system with train lines running in and out of town. Any crosstown trips, and you'll be stuck with the bus system, which tends to run a bit too infrequently to be really convenient outside of rush hour, and tends to be poorly managed (i.e., buses that are supposed run ever 15 min don't show up for 45, and then three show up).

The best areas to live without a car are probably Back Bay/South End, but you're not going to find much for $400k in those areas. Cambridge and Brookline, while pretty well served by the T, are bit a less dense, and less $/sq. foot, but there are a lot of trips that are very inconvenient on public transportation.

Throw in the baby, and it's going to be tough to haul around your stuff without a car.

Again, I strongly suggest you rent for a little while. Brookline may be good place to start your search, since it sounds like you want to live closer into town.


Best of luck again.
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JCK



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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 10:35 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also, since I see you're going to working in Longwood, Brookline Village and Coolidge Corner are both very convenient (within walking distance) of Longwood.
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john p



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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2007 10:47 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I totally agree with JCK; think about if your child needed to get to a doctor fast...
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PostPosted: Thu Oct 11, 2007 8:17 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brookline/Coolidge look very nice. Also cambridgeport is on my radar - It seems like it's a good little walkable neighborhood for familes? Is that right?


Where do you get the most for your money in terms of space and safety while still on the MBTA line? (preferably red or green)
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