bostonbubble.com Forum Index bostonbubble.com
Boston Bubble - Boston Real Estate Analysis
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

SPONSORED LINKS

Advertise on Boston Bubble
Buyer brokers and motivated
sellers, reach potential buyers.
www.bostonbubble.com

YOUR AD HERE

 
Go to: Boston real estate bubble fact list with references
More Boston Bubble News...
DISCLAIMER: The information provided on this website and in the associated forums comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY, expressed or implied. You assume all risk for your own use of the information provided as the accuracy of the information is in no way guaranteed. As always, cross check information that you would deem useful against multiple, reliable, independent resources. The opinions expressed belong to the individual authors and not necessarily to other parties.

Inventory for Arlington 02476 (Brackett) surging

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    bostonbubble.com Forum Index -> News & Reference Suggestions
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
admin
Site Admin


Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 8:44 pm GMT    Post subject: Inventory for Arlington 02476 (Brackett) surging Reply with quote

In a sharp reversal of what has been one of two driving forces behind the super heated market in Arlington for the last year, the inventory of houses for sale in the 02476 zip code (where the coveted Brackett School is located) has surged and continues climbing, contrary to typical seasonal behavior. Last year showed more typical seasonality, with listings rising to a peak in May and then falling the rest of the year. However, this year, despite an earlier localized peak in May, listings began to surge in September and are continuing to climb. What's more, the number of listings is now higher than it has been for all of 2013 and all of 2012. Some dates of interest with their associated inventory numbers:

  • May 21, 2013: 30
  • Nov 12, 2012: 10
  • May 21, 2013: 11
  • Nov 11, 2013: 31


The data and a nice graph can be found as follows:


This is the only zip code I have checked so far for inventory, so this may not reflect trends elsewhere.

- admin
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Former Arlingtonian



Joined: 23 Oct 2013
Posts: 141

PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2013 3:06 pm GMT    Post subject: Debt and a frenzy has driven Arlington 02476 valuations! Reply with quote

Everywhere I look I find people are taking out the biggest Mortgages in history to get in on the low interest rates. People don't grasp the connection between housing rebound and massive leverage driven by low interest rates.

Lets look at what has happened in zip code 02476 recent closing.

40 Pleasant -Unit 1 sold of Oct 25 for $408K - the new Mortgage is $326K.
In 2009 this property sold for $351,500 - and the Mortgage was $200K.

25 Piedmont sold on Oct 25for $435,000 - the new Mortgage is $413,250
In 2005 this property sold for $390K and had a Mortgage of $290,000.

32 Smith St UNIT 32 sold Oct 24 for $506K- the new mortgage is $404.8K
It sold in 2003 for $446.3K and the mortgage was $210K.

62 Norfolk sold on Oct 18 for $772.3K - new Mortgage is $617,840
This was first listed for sale 6/2013 for $859K, then $829K, then $819K, then $779K....every time looking for a "greater fool" to buy.

280 Highland sold for $375K on Oct 18 - new Mortgage is $368,207
Last sale was September 1983 for $82K when the 30 year Mortgage was 13.73%. - the monthly payment would have been $952.16. - todays Mortgage of $368K - monthly payment would be $1800. People are buying homes based on monthly payment and that is driven by Interest rates.

17 Spring Valley sold for $555K on Oct 17th, new mortgage is $416,250
It last sold June 2006 for $435K - the mortgage was $275K -when Mortgage rates hit 6.71%. Mortgage rates are 50% lower today, people are borrowing more and bidding up the market with increase debt loads.

201 Wachusett sold for $550K - new Mortgages= $490.5K (no 20% down)

48 Oakland sold for $486K - new mortgage is $539,500

I can't afford to participate in a real estate when people are valuing homes at prices based on historically low interest rates.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
admin
Site Admin


Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Tue Nov 19, 2013 5:37 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Correction: The first data point in the original post (where the inventory was 30) should have read May 21, 2012, not 2013.

Redfin just added a new week of data today. The latest number is still climbing and still above all of 2012 and 2013, with inventory now listed at 32. However, the inventory for November 11th is now listed at 29, rather than 31 like last time. It isn't clear why that data point has changed. Perhaps Redfin retroactively revises their data. Or perhaps it is a consequence of how they calculate their 90 day moving average, if the date given is used as the center of the 90 day window instead of the tail end as implied.

In any case, all of the previously listed data points, which are substantially older, are still the same, which does suggest that very recent Redfin data may not be as reliable. The full list of data points with the noted date correction and revision applied and the latest data added is:

  • May 21, 2012: 30
  • Nov 12, 2012: 10
  • May 21, 2013: 11
  • Nov 11, 2013: 29
  • Nov 18, 2013: 32

- admin
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
admin
Site Admin


Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Thu Nov 28, 2013 5:57 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

The November 11th inventory count has been revised again. And once again, the new data for the most recent week has set another record high, although one should assume that this may be revised later too. Here are the latest data points, with the most recent week added:


  • May 21, 2012: 30
  • Nov 12, 2012: 10
  • May 20, 2013: 11
  • Nov 11, 2013: 28
  • Nov 18, 2013: 31
  • Nov 25, 2013: 34


- admin
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
admin
Site Admin


Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 4:18 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

All of the recent dates have been changed again. Here's an updated snapshot:


  • May 21, 2012: 30
  • Nov 12, 2012: 10
  • May 20, 2013: 11
  • Oct 14, 2013: 20
  • Nov 11, 2013: 24
  • Nov 18, 2013: 27
  • Nov 25, 2013: 30
  • Dec 2, 2013: 29


I have added October 14, 2013 to the list in order to test the hypothesis that the repeated changing of recent data is due to Redfin reporting each data point as the middle of a 90 day moving average. That would mean that they are reporting recent data before that data is actually complete. That would also unfortunately make the graphs a lot less useful. October 14th was more than 45 days past when they last updated the graph, so it hypothetically wouldn't change from here on if they are calculating the moving average that way.

If that hypothesis is correct, it is interesting to note that the inventory on October 14th was higher than all of 2013, and so the surge would therefore be confirmed, despite the unreliability of more recent data.

- admin
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    bostonbubble.com Forum Index -> News & Reference Suggestions All times are GMT
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You can post new topics in this forum
You can reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Forum posts are owned by the original posters.
Forum boards are Copyright 2005 - present, bostonbubble.com.
Privacy policy in effect.
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group