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Warren and MAR predict Mass. on homestretch of massive tumbl

 
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Joined: 14 Jul 2007
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Location: Greater Boston
PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 6:23 pm GMT    Post subject: Warren and MAR predict Mass. on homestretch of massive tumbl Reply with quote
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Description: Warren and MAR predict Mass. on homestretch of massive tumble
URL: http://news.bostonherald.com/business/real_estate/view/2011_1228mass_on_homestre ...truncated...
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admin
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Joined: 14 Jul 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 28, 2011 6:29 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote
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But it’s been a different story during 2011’s second half. With the tax credit no longer skewing statistics, 2011 house sales have exceeded last year’s levels every month since July.


That's wrong on two counts. First, sales qualifying for the credit could close into September of last year, well into the second half of the year. Second, the tax credit pulled sales forward which would have otherwise occurred in the last quarter of 2010 (or later), so the ostensible "improvement" this quarter versus 2010 Q4 will look like a bigger gain than what would have been natural. That is, 2010 is a poor baseline for comparison.

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balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2011 2:26 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote
Let's also not forget the new payroll tax extension tax. For every $200k in new GSE home loans you have to pay $15/mo. I think of it as an interest rate bump, counteracting some Fed actions, but others may not view it that way.
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