bostonbubble.com Forum Index bostonbubble.com
Boston Bubble - Boston Real Estate Analysis
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

SPONSORED LINKS

Advertise on Boston Bubble
Buyer brokers and motivated
sellers, reach potential buyers.
www.bostonbubble.com

YOUR AD HERE

 
Go to: Boston real estate bubble fact list with references
More Boston Bubble News...
DISCLAIMER: The information provided on this website and in the associated forums comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY, expressed or implied. You assume all risk for your own use of the information provided as the accuracy of the information is in no way guaranteed. As always, cross check information that you would deem useful against multiple, reliable, independent resources. The opinions expressed belong to the individual authors and not necessarily to other parties.

Buffet on housing

 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    bostonbubble.com Forum Index -> News & Reference Suggestions
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204

PostPosted: Sun Feb 27, 2011 3:23 am GMT    Post subject: Buffet on housing Reply with quote

Buffet on housing

Note the quote:
Quote:
Within a year or so residential housing problems should largely be behind us, the exceptions being only high-value houses and those in certain localities where overbuilding was particularly egregious.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
admin
Site Admin


Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston

PostPosted: Sun Feb 27, 2011 2:49 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think I might agree with Buffet, with the caveat that this will only hold if interest rates match current expectations. His comments agree with recent housing futures and my stab at a payment-to-income ratio. I expect the payment-to-income ratio to move within the typical range in coordination with the business cycle, as you pointed out earlier. I also see signs of business picking up now, based on my completely unscientific personal impression of a recent increase in headhunter spam (for software engineering). That is to say, the nominal bottom predicted at the end of 2011 by the futures contracts seems plausible for the current level of interest rates. However, interest rates are a single point of failure for the housing market and I do not want to bank of them remaining low. I would attribute all inflation adjusted price gains over the last three decades to falling interest rates (not low rates, but declining rates), I expect the process to work in the opposite direction if and when rates start rising, and I think that there is very little room for them to fall further. So while we might hit a nominal bottom soon, the upside from there appears limited to the business cycle whereas the downside is substantially larger and longer term.

- admin
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail Visit poster's website
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    bostonbubble.com Forum Index -> News & Reference Suggestions All times are GMT
Page 1 of 1

 
Jump to:  
You can post new topics in this forum
You can reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Forum posts are owned by the original posters.
Forum boards are Copyright 2005 - present, bostonbubble.com.
Privacy policy in effect.
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group