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Months of supply points to lower prices
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GenXer



Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703

PostPosted: Wed Sep 01, 2010 3:43 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree 100% that commute is a big deal, and of course, it only works if yours isn't that bad. Almost everybody I know works in the suburbs, so its not a big deal for them. For those who work in the downtown, the best they can do is rent in Brookline, unfortunately.
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GenXer



Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703

PostPosted: Wed Sep 01, 2010 3:47 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

CL wrote:
I think going to Marlborough is trading location (commute time/proximity to jobs) for a nicer/larger house. I don't think it makes sense since house depreciates, location typically does not.

I am not sure if Marlborough house, even when affordable, can sell in a heartbeat. You need huge demand for quick sale, and structurally I don't see why there should be a persistent high demand, unlike a town like Brookline or Winchester.


You can always sell at a loss, of course. Overpriced locations are much more likely to be volatile than locations where prices have already taken a nosedive. The risk is much lower for a Marlborough house, in my opinion. And I'm sure you can get a much better deal. If the economy goes south some more, you never know how much less the Brookline house will sell for, and besides, 10% from $1M is much more than 10% from $300k as far as resale goes. And its all strategic planning. You are not gonig to stay in Marlborough for long. Just long enough to give your kids a top notch education.
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balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204

PostPosted: Thu Sep 02, 2010 3:14 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I spent 3 years between Worcester and Framingham working at a company in Shrewsbury. Historically, it's been a lively area with lots of economic activity. However, the dot com bust hit that area really hard and I don't think it's coming back. There's a lot of unemployed people living in that area and they are slowly moving out.

What makes a town nice? Well, I don't go into Boston much at all but I like living near Boston because of proximity to people. Now in most other cities the suburbs are great because there's a lot of life in them. But Boston is different in that past 128 our suburbs take pride in maintaining their rural character - also a good part of the cost of living problem IMO. People in Southborough love that the have to drive to their nearest neighbors. That's not for me. I like the restaurants on Moody St and the ability to reach several different shopping centers within 15min. I participate in professional and social groups around the 128 area. These are precisely the characteristics that rural towns like to avoid. They want them to be in the next town over. You're not going to be attending many bubble hours from Marlborough Razz

What's so frustrating about this area is how bipolar it is. You have areas that are highly dense like downtown Newton, Watertown, etc but then right next to them you have hoards of open land. Have you all every gone to Google map and set it to satellite view? North Waltham, Lincoln, Lexington, Weston, and even parts of Brookline, Wellesley, and Newton are just green - little or nothing there! This is previous land that is starving the Greater Boston area from growing and what makes life so much more difficult here than in other places. Why are these cities planned like this? To maintain rural character of course, while stile maintaining proximity to Boston. I mean, how backward is it that you can live on a farm with horses in Dover and have only a 15min commute to downtown Boston??
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guinea



Joined: 07 Sep 2010
Posts: 5

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:40 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

balor123 wrote:

What's so frustrating about this area is how bipolar it is. You have areas that are highly dense like downtown Newton, Watertown, etc but then right next to them you have hoards of open land. Have you all every gone to Google map and set it to satellite view? North Waltham, Lincoln, Lexington, Weston, and even parts of Brookline, Wellesley, and Newton are just green - little or nothing there! This is previous land that is starving the Greater Boston area from growing and what makes life so much more difficult here than in other places. Why are these cities planned like this? To maintain rural character of course, while stile maintaining proximity to Boston. I mean, how backward is it that you can live on a farm with horses in Dover and have only a 15min commute to downtown Boston??


The low density and rural feel is what makes Boston suburbs so attractive in the first place. If you want to live from concrete to concrete, you ought to move to northern New Jersey or Chicagoland.

Please don't ruin the only good thing left about Boston.
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balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:23 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

And this is part of the reason why the cost of living won't change here - people support the policies that prevent them for affording to live here.
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GenXer



Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:03 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

MA has a high concentration of relatively well-paid jobs. This includes state/government jobs that pay well. A big loss in those types of jobs can bring prices down further. Its only a matter of time - defense is being decimated as we speak, and teachers/administrators will start being laid off in 1-2 years. Municipal workers will follow. That is, if there is not another bailout for the states. Then we'll see what happens to prices. The old money is still entrenched here - but for the most part its the availability of easy money and a growing economy, as well as big public pensions that are responsible. This will all change, or else. Looks like we may have to wait another decade for everything to play out. In any case, it would take this long even if construction began tomorrow.
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Guest





PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 2:19 pm GMT    Post subject: Policy Manipulation Reply with quote

balor123 wrote:
And this is part of the reason why the cost of living won't change here - people support the policies that prevent them for affording to live here.


Well, different strokes for different folks -- I'm fine with letting the market decide. (Some places will have farms with trees if people are willing to pay for it, and others will be concrete jungles like Dallas.) What is infuriating is when NIMBYism takes over the legislative process and unfairly zones it protect their housing values, which makes it hard for the rest of us to buy in.

It is this sort of political manipulation in support of entrenched eletes that can sap the vitality of a city. (Check out Chris Wickham's new book on Rome for a terrific example http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0670020982/ref=wms_ohs_product ) I fear for Boston. Without our Universities and Hospitals, what would we have?[/url]
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balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204

PostPosted: Tue Sep 07, 2010 11:10 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

The market is a lot more creative than you give it credit. In a small town like Belmont you have lots of people with open lots next to their homes, which increases the value of the home. The city could develop that land but those homeowners would certainly fight it furiously, even though they don't own that land. It's an easy decision for the city to make, though, because passing up on that money only means that they have to borrow more to make current expenses. Thus, the cost is not actually born by the homeowner but by the future residents of the town. First, they have to pay inflated prices to move in. Then they have to pay the debt accumulated to inflate that inflated price.

I'm not sure that I'm ok with letting towns get away with limited or no growth policies for extended periods of time. We should endeavor to provide a nice place for every American to live and if Belmont doesn't build a home for an increasing population we need to ensure that some other city does and that city can provide jobs for those people. That aside, we should also endeavor to give people freedom in where they choose to live, at least a coarse levels, without significant burden. Many of us have family and weather preferences.

I think it is reasonable to expect that all towns grow at least with population of the country if there is demand for it. I don't think it matters whether it is done by making the city a concrete slab or by a metal one but in some way.

And clearly guest has never been to Dallas because it is far from a concrete slab. I think guess assumes that everywhere that isn't Boston must be like LA. You just need to look at Google maps to see that it's not high density housing that differentiates cities like Boston from Dallas but rather better allocation of land.
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Guest





PostPosted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 12:28 am GMT    Post subject: struggling to agree with you Reply with quote

balor123 wrote:
The market is a lot more creative than you give it credit. In a small town like Belmont you have lots of people with open lots next to their homes, which increases the value of the home. The city could develop that land but those homeowners would certainly fight it furiously, even though they don't own that land. It's an easy decision for the city to make, though, because passing up on that money only means that they have to borrow more to make current expenses. Thus, the cost is not actually born by the homeowner but by the future residents of the town. First, they have to pay inflated prices to move in. Then they have to pay the debt accumulated to inflate that inflated price.


This is exactly the sort of political manipulation by eletes that I'm taking about. I'm struggling to agree with you... Again, I don't have a big problem with letting a thousand flowers bloom with a wide variety of city models to choose from. I'm mainly frustrated when current homeowners use politics to shift balance towards themselves and away from newcomers.

balor123 wrote:
And clearly guest has never been to Dallas because it is far from a concrete slab. I think guess assumes that everywhere that isn't Boston must be like LA. You just need to look at Google maps to see that it's not high density housing that differentiates cities like Boston from Dallas but rather better allocation of land.


Actually from Dallas. A great example of a thousand flowers blooming -- you've got your highland park, preston hollow, oak lawn, etc. -- a bunch of places I wouldn't mind living, all to suit different tastes or different points in the career/family lifecycle. Proves my point since you just don't see the sort of large scale political manipulation there that you see here in Boston... People vote with their feet and move around a lot in Dallas because they can.
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Boston ITer



Joined: 11 Jan 2010
Posts: 269

PostPosted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 2:05 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, think about it like this, limiting development gives the current homeowners an exit strategy for down the road ... and that's to sell and buy a place near Tallahassee FL for retirement and have some $400K or more in gains for retirement.

Thus, the region is in a type of white collar funk where despite stagnant wages, housing costs aren't decreasing in unison.

Right now, even towns in and around Greenwich CT (the hedge fund capital, which does in fact make money) are experiencing housing declines relative to the Boston area.

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CT-Greenwich-home-value/r_45565/

And realize this is Southern CT, the main housing quadrant for the Wall St financial types.

Boston, I believe, is in a worse long term economic corridor than the elite NYC suburbs so I feel that this is a setup for a long term bear market.
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mpr



Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 344

PostPosted: Wed Sep 08, 2010 2:08 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boston ITer wrote:

Boston, I believe, is in a worse long term economic corridor than the elite NYC suburbs so I feel that this is a setup for a long term bear market.


Realize (to use the slightly irritating form of the imperative you seem to
favor) that this is just your opinion based on rather unconvincing
anecdotal evidence.

If you're serious about making this argument show me a breakdown of
the Boston metro area economy by industry as well as the rate of growth
for each of these industries. It wouldn't be an easy analysis to do but
its be the only thing which would be remotely convincing.
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guinea



Joined: 07 Sep 2010
Posts: 5

PostPosted: Thu Sep 09, 2010 3:58 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

balor123 wrote:
And this is part of the reason why the cost of living won't change here - people support the policies that prevent them for affording to live here.

I support towns having their say to limit unwanted growth; growth for growth sake is not a fundamental right nor even preferred if one has already reached a high standard of living. I've actually also lived many years in Dallas and Houston, and much of the faster growth there come with heavy long-term costs down the line.

Believe me, I whine about Boston's high housing costs all the time (and I'm a physician), but when push comes to shove, I am willing to pay more for the New England "rural" feel of the Boston metro area. Take that away, I might as well live in a McMansion in Dallas for 1/3rd the price, hell even Highland Park is like half the price for comparable offerings around Boston.
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balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204

PostPosted: Thu Sep 09, 2010 7:00 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

For most of us it's not a question of whether we're willing to pay for the rural feel but rather whether we can pay. If Boston had a misery index, then I suspect that you would find that one impact of rural policies that don't meet housing needs of the residents is that many end up living in poverty. I bet you have more families of 4 (or even 5 and 6) living in 2br condos in Boston than you do in Dallas.

So you get your nice house in a nice town with lots of land in Boston, something you consider a plus. However, you haven't thought of others and in that respect you are being selfish. Cities have zoning laws for lots of reasons and one of them is to prevent rich people for buying up all the land and displacing the poor.

We're not talking about ditching the rural feel and bringing all the problems you mention so that we can grow. Rather, we're doing it so we can support the people we already have and, in fact, to reduce problems. Many people end up moving really far away to places like Worcester, NH, and RI so that they can afford a place to live, which actually increases the burden on roads and pollution. Some towns can certainly maintain their rural feel but I think ethically one can support such housing policies knowing that housing needs are being met for all.

Having lived in both Dallas and Boston, then, I'm sure you can also agree that population isn't necessarily a problem. Dallas is also a big city like Boston but doesn't have anywhere near the same number of big city problems that Boston has. Growth isn't really a problem. Unmanaged growth is. Boston's political system is so ineffective that it can't manage growth and so the solution that's been adopted is simply not to grow.

A simple solution might be to eliminate the city boundaries as is done in Texas, and place them all under the leadership of the city of Boston. We need to eliminate the disproportionate influence that tiny special interests have over politicians. A group of 5 Globe employees shouldn't be able to threaten the future of a group of employees several hundred times their size. Similarly, a small group of homeowners shouldn't be able to dictate unacceptable policies to a city of millions.
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guinea



Joined: 07 Sep 2010
Posts: 5

PostPosted: Fri Sep 10, 2010 5:16 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

balor123 wrote:

A simple solution might be to eliminate the city boundaries as is done in Texas, and place them all under the leadership of the city of Boston. We need to eliminate the disproportionate influence that tiny special interests have over politicians.


That's a horrible idea. What will happen is instead of getting Texas, you'll get Chicago and Cook County.

Spend a few years in Cook County and you will soon change your tune.

And to each his own, you have a choice to move to a city and governing style you desire. This is a great thing about America. You don't even have to emigrate out of the country. Please don't remove this choice for others.
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Xenos



Joined: 24 Jun 2009
Posts: 31
Location: Western Mass

PostPosted: Fri Sep 10, 2010 6:15 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

It is not even an issue. The towns around Boston are proud of their history and their continued independence. Boston may have eaten the rest of Suffolk County (about 100 years ago, in a very different time when Boston was strong and progressivism was an ascendant political movement), but it will never move in on any towns in Middlesex or Norfolk County. Not in the foreseeable future, at least.
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