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JAP
Guest
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 Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 11:29 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| mpr wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: | | Not sure how you can come up with some of the very pro market thoughts you did unless you have some skin in the game of the market increasing in 2010. 95% of every piece of informaiton over the last two months are calling for a dip in the real estate market in 2010. This information is coming from such experts as Case and Schiller. Maybe you are not a realtor but more likely a broker, frustrated seller, etc. The post doesn't passs the smell test. |
Actually I found it perfectly reasonable. One could just as well criticize
most of the permabears on this site as frustrated buyers. |
Agreed however most of the "experts" and "analysts" tend to be sided with those frustrated buyers you are referring to. If I'm purchasing an assest in the dollar amount of a house I would tend to go with the opinions of people who tend to be more knowledgeable and credible as opposed to people (sellers) who may not have the same aount of expertise and have a stongly biased perspective. Wouldn't you agree? |
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JAP
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 11:36 pm GMT Post subject: Re: N6NOJB |
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| mpr wrote: | | JP wrote: | | Hard Rain wrote: | | Where did you get the idea that sellers are not lowering prices? |
Ok let me rephrase my statement about sellers and home prices. Sellers are not lowering prices that are bringing their homes into an appropriate dollar range based on market conditions. If a house is truely worth 500K and the seller has it listed at 600K and they lower the asking price to 575K it doesn't really do anyone any good. Sorry but I thought this logic was understood in my post above.
It is going to be a long stressful year for many home sellers in 2010. Since my last post I have come across several more articles supporting home price drops in 2010. This is getting scarey. Anyone have any recent articles where credible people are saying the market will increase in 2010? If so, please post the link. |
Do you have any recent statistics on months of inventory ?
Without it all these claims about the "real value" are pretty meaningless. |
Sorry just read your post again. Are you referring to the stats on months of inventory for foreclosures in 2009/2010? |
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mpr
Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 344
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| Posted: Fri Jan 08, 2010 11:53 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| JAP wrote: |
Agreed however most of the "experts" and "analysts" tend to be sided with those frustrated buyers you are referring to. If I'm purchasing an assest in the dollar amount of a house I would tend to go with the opinions of people who tend to be more knowledgeable and credible as opposed to people (sellers) who may not have the same aount of expertise and have a stongly biased perspective. Wouldn't you agree? |
You can find plenty of talking heads on both sides of the argument.
Its just a question of which ones you choose.
By inventory, I mean the number of months it would take to
sell all the properties on the market at the current rate of sales.
This is considered a good indicator of whether its a buyers or sellers
market.
I haven't seen such a statistic for MA recently but it must exist.
I dont have much doubt that it will probably still indicate a buyers
market but possibly much less so than a year ago.
You could also look for various measures of affordibility. This is meant
to be quite good now nationwide, but I haven't seen any data for MA.
My own view on all this is that its usually better not to bet against
the people with the printing presses. |
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Guest
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 12:02 am GMT Post subject: |
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| mpr wrote: | | JAP wrote: |
Agreed however most of the "experts" and "analysts" tend to be sided with those frustrated buyers you are referring to. If I'm purchasing an assest in the dollar amount of a house I would tend to go with the opinions of people who tend to be more knowledgeable and credible as opposed to people (sellers) who may not have the same aount of expertise and have a stongly biased perspective. Wouldn't you agree? |
You can find plenty of talking heads on both sides of the argument.
Its just a question of which ones you choose.
By inventory, I mean the number of months it would take to
sell all the properties on the market at the current rate of sales.
This is considered a good indicator of whether its a buyers or sellers
market.
I haven't seen such a statistic for MA recently but it must exist.
I dont have much doubt that it will probably still indicate a buyers
market but possibly much less so than a year ago.
You could also look for various measures of affordibility. This is meant
to be quite good now nationwide, but I haven't seen any data for MA.
My own view on all this is that its usually better not to bet against
the people with the printing presses. |
That's just my point. I haven't been able to find ANY pieces of information citing a positive market in 2010. I asked if someone had any to please post them on my first post to start this thread but I haven't seen any yet. I also have not been able to find any myself. I would love to see a handful to compare. Not sure they even exist by credible "experts". I'm not referring to a reporter in the NYT or Boston Globe but someone who is considered to be an expert in the real estate market. Or at the very least an article that cites statistics or facts to support their perspective on a postive real estate market in 2010. Anyone? |
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JAP
Guest
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 12:05 am GMT Post subject: |
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| mpr wrote: | | JAP wrote: |
Agreed however most of the "experts" and "analysts" tend to be sided with those frustrated buyers you are referring to. If I'm purchasing an assest in the dollar amount of a house I would tend to go with the opinions of people who tend to be more knowledgeable and credible as opposed to people (sellers) who may not have the same aount of expertise and have a stongly biased perspective. Wouldn't you agree? |
You can find plenty of talking heads on both sides of the argument.
Its just a question of which ones you choose.
By inventory, I mean the number of months it would take to
sell all the properties on the market at the current rate of sales.
This is considered a good indicator of whether its a buyers or sellers
market.
I haven't seen such a statistic for MA recently but it must exist.
I dont have much doubt that it will probably still indicate a buyers
market but possibly much less so than a year ago.
You could also look for various measures of affordibility. This is meant
to be quite good now nationwide, but I haven't seen any data for MA.
My own view on all this is that its usually better not to bet against
the people with the printing presses. |
TO get the data you are looking go to this website.
http://www.raveis.com/
I belive you have to register first however it's free. You can pull up months of inventory by town/city. It's an awesome website to research specific hosing facts. Let me know how you make out. |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 1:14 am GMT Post subject: |
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| mpr wrote: |
Actually I found it perfectly reasonable. One could just as well criticize
most of the permabears on this site as frustrated buyers. |
How can you tell if somebody here is a "permabear"? The bear market in housing began shortly after this site was launched and hasn't ended yet (we are still seeing year over year real declines, even with the increases in government life support). For the record, I have also found most of CL's posts reasonable.
- admin |
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mpr
Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 344
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 1:51 am GMT Post subject: |
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[quote="admin"] | mpr wrote: |
Actually I found it perfectly reasonable. One could just as well criticize
most of the permabears on this site as frustrated buyers. |
How can you tell if somebody here is a "permabear"? The bear market in housing began shortly after this site was launched and hasn't ended yet (we are still seeing year over year real declines, even with the increases in government life support). For the record, I have also found most of CL's posts reasonable.
- admin[/quote
Actually its more a matter of tone, but if you want to get technical the
C-S numbers in the Boston area have shown a sharp rebound this year.
Yes, I know its meant to be due to the govt rebate etc, but that is
what you'd expect a permabear to say, isn't it ? (I mean you'd expect
them to provide some internally consistent argument, and since
economic prediction is not an exact science there's always some reason.)
Anyway, are you saying that if we get a year on year increase, as I'm sure
we will in a few months you'll admit to being a permabear ? |
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mpr
Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 344
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 2:02 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Anonymous wrote: |
That's just my point. I haven't been able to find ANY pieces of information citing a positive market in 2010. I asked if someone had any to please post them on my first post to start this thread but I haven't seen any yet. I also have not been able to find any myself. I would love to see a handful to compare. Not sure they even exist by credible "experts". I'm not referring to a reporter in the NYT or Boston Globe but someone who is considered to be an expert in the real estate market. Or at the very least an article that cites statistics or facts to support their perspective on a postive real estate market in 2010. Anyone? |
Here you go.
http://wap.boston.com/art/45/business/ticker/2009/12/boston_home_pri_3 |
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JAP
Guest
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 2:17 am GMT Post subject: |
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| mpr wrote: | | Anonymous wrote: |
That's just my point. I haven't been able to find ANY pieces of information citing a positive market in 2010. I asked if someone had any to please post them on my first post to start this thread but I haven't seen any yet. I also have not been able to find any myself. I would love to see a handful to compare. Not sure they even exist by credible "experts". I'm not referring to a reporter in the NYT or Boston Globe but someone who is considered to be an expert in the real estate market. Or at the very least an article that cites statistics or facts to support their perspective on a postive real estate market in 2010. Anyone? |
Here you go.
http://wap.boston.com/art/45/business/ticker/2009/12/boston_home_pri_3 |
I don't see where it states or predicts a housing increase in 2010? Am I missing something? |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 2:59 am GMT Post subject: |
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| mpr wrote: |
Actually its more a matter of tone, but if you want to get technical the
C-S numbers in the Boston area have shown a sharp rebound this year. Yes, I know its meant to be due to the govt rebate etc, but that is
what you'd expect a permabear to say, isn't it ?
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And that makes it wrong? The "rebound" has been entirely in the low tier, which is entirely consistent with government inducement given the (previous) limitations on the tax credit.
| mpr wrote: |
Anyway, are you saying that if we get a year on year increase, as I'm sure
we will in a few months you'll admit to being a permabear ? |
Your question presupposes I will always be bearish. That's not the case. A year over year increase would definitely not turn me bullish, but other mathematically inevitable things would, so "admitting to being a permabear" wouldn't make sense.
- admin |
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mpr
Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 344
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 5:24 am GMT Post subject: |
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| admin wrote: |
Your question presupposes I will always be bearish. That's not the case. A year over year increase would definitely not turn me bullish, but other mathematically inevitable things would, so "admitting to being a permabear" wouldn't make sense.
- admin |
That's another trait of permabears - they never admit to it  .
Its a little to easy to just say that you would be bullish under certain
conditions. If those conditions basically never arise (for whatever reason,
including government intervention) then that makes you a permabear !
Since one can never conclude that the conditions will never arise
in a finite amount of time, I really mean it more as a question of tone.
To tell you the truth when I mentioned the "permabears on this site" I
wasn't chiefly thinking about you. My main point was that the emotional
bias displayed by homeowners is also displayed in the other direction
by people on this site who dont own and are always negative. Alot of that
sentiment definitely comes out as complaining that housing in Boston
is "too expensive" rather than as a consequence of some hard analysis.
(There's surprisingly little hard analysis on the site which isn't provided by
you). |
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admin
Site Admin
Joined: 14 Jul 2005
Posts: 1826
Location: Greater Boston
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 5:34 am GMT Post subject: |
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| mpr wrote: |
Its a little to easy to just say that you would be bullish under certain
conditions. If those conditions basically never arise (for whatever reason,
including government intervention) then that makes you a permabear !
|
Well, one of the conditions that would make me not bearish (not necessarily bullish, but not bearish anyway), is for the price to income ratio to be within a standard deviation of the historical average. I don't think it is practically possible for that condition to never arise because as long as the current ratio remains above that trigger, the average will continue to rise and the standard deviation will continue to grow. It's actually pretty close to crossing the line now.
- admin |
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Hard Rain
Guest
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| Posted: Sat Jan 09, 2010 2:24 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| JP wrote: | | If you go to Redfin you can look up the statistics all day long that show homes in the higher end are sitting longer and longer as well as seeing how much sellers bought their homes for and what they are now asking. Many of the houses I have been looking at were purchased back in 2003, 04, 05, and many of them are asking significantly more than what they paid back then with minor, if any, improvements to the house. Sorry don't have the time to run the stats but they are easily available on Redfin.com |
Asking and receiving are entirely different ...  |
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Boston ITer
Guest
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| Posted: Sun Jan 10, 2010 3:13 am GMT Post subject: |
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I'm a full blown perma bear because I see money for what it is, both the ability to purchase or manage a payment schedule and as well as a true hedge against a high unemployment scenario, a.k.a loss of income for a duration of time.
Likewise, if let's say I was a well off hedge fund trader and not a regular tech worker, I might consider buying, however, seeing money for what it is, wouldn't it be better for me to use the rent/mortgage differential, $2.5K/mth renting vs $5K/mth to own the same pad, as margin or fodder for another unit of the S&P mini futures and make another $300 per week w/ it? Actually, that would make sense since money is made nowadays by trading markets, not in depending upon one asset class or the other, accruing value over time.
With the above in mind, I wouldn't buy either way, since real estate, after a big run up from '01 to '05, will be flat/sideways for another decade. I'd rather focus on the bottom line and buy, in cash, when that amount of cash won't be essential for my basic livelihood. |
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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| Posted: Sun Jan 10, 2010 4:24 am GMT Post subject: |
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| mpr wrote: |
Alot of that sentiment definitely comes out as complaining that housing in Boston is "too expensive" rather than as a consequence of some hard analysis. (There's surprisingly little hard analysis on the site which isn't provided by you). |
I provided some numbers at one point which demonstrated that while Boston has been an expensive city since 1980 it has become even more expensive relative to income since then as a percentage of income. |
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