bostonbubble.com Forum Index bostonbubble.com
Boston Bubble - Boston Real Estate Analysis
 
 FAQFAQ   SearchSearch   MemberlistMemberlist   UsergroupsUsergroups   RegisterRegister 
 ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

SPONSORED LINKS

Advertise on Boston Bubble
Buyer brokers and motivated
sellers, reach potential buyers.
www.bostonbubble.com

YOUR AD HERE

 
Go to: Boston real estate bubble fact list with references
More Boston Bubble News...
DISCLAIMER: The information provided on this website and in the associated forums comes with ABSOLUTELY NO WARRANTY, expressed or implied. You assume all risk for your own use of the information provided as the accuracy of the information is in no way guaranteed. As always, cross check information that you would deem useful against multiple, reliable, independent resources. The opinions expressed belong to the individual authors and not necessarily to other parties.

need advice on buying or waiting
Goto page Previous  1, 2
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    bostonbubble.com Forum Index -> Greater Boston Real Estate & Beyond
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
jbw
Guest





PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2007 3:00 am GMT    Post subject: Will prices go up in the long run? Reply with quote

When the babyboomers retire, we will have 15 million more units nationally than the population requires unless we triple immigration? Given the current congress, I don't think that will happen.
Back to top
JCK



Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559

PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2007 12:33 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Retire or die?

Retired people have to live somewhere. I don't think all of them are moving to Florida.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2007 1:31 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would keep an eye on what properties are doing down in Florida, the Carolinas, Arizona, etc. Florida was usually a great place to retire because you got a big bang for the buck. In the past three years it was targeted by investors so it became less attractive. Now, it is softening faster than the Boston market so more and more might trickle down there.

Governments are so dumb and slow to act. It's like they finally see the subprime crisis. Things have to collapse before they notice. Leadership is seeing things before they collapse. The leaders who keep things on track are the ones you never hear about because they are quietly doing their job. I think they ought to loosen up starter home supply in the metro Boston area by promoting over 55 housing just past the 495 belt. Even if only 3% of seniors were interested, it would make a significant impact. It is a perfect solution to balance the current situation.

I do think that we live in a cold climate and you will see a good amount of people leave to golf where there are palm trees. People I know near retirement who have college bound kids are telling me that colleges are very selective now and this echo boom thing is putting a big demand on colleges. Colleges can use a house value as part of the basis of the financial aid. I wonder how the state of housing will affect tuition costs. Think about if you were considering retirement, wouldn't you worry about inflation the decline of the dollar, property taxes, medical expenses; that might postpone your retirement plans especially if colleges cost you a pound of blood. It will be a sad day if elderly sell their homes not because they want to, but because they have to. My plan to build affordable over 55 housing in a lower cost of living area in the Commonwealth is the right medicine for the young and older generations...
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jbw
Guest





PostPosted: Wed May 09, 2007 5:54 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I didn't want to mention death, but since you did:

The decline in the size of the baby boom population will really put downward pressure on housing in the twenty to thirty year frame. But even before that, a large number of baby boomers are depending on housing equity to finance their retirements by downsizing or moving into rental properties. [[Given the cap on reverse mortgages, the only way to realize the full equity in most areas is to sell (unless prices tumble in which case it is a mute point).]] Taxes in MA will also motivate people to sell and move to more affordable areas, so I think we will start to see real value price declines in Boston within the next 10 years related to this population's movement.

I'm not advocating not buying (I'm looking right now), but I think the concept of stretching yourself because a house is an investment is not applicable in this day and age. Be sure to take care of your retirement before paying your mortgage. A rule of thumb that I often hear and currently adhere to is that you should save half your age (i.e. if your thirty (like jc who started this thread) you should put away 15% of your income).

Housing is now simply a cost you pay for the lifestyle you want.
Back to top
Guest






PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2007 10:33 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

To JC:

If you have the downpayment, ~$100K in cash, and one earner at $100K/yr, here's my best advice... don't buy unless your husband is in health care (doctor, PA, etc) or in some type of govt a/o DoD work. Save the money instead and rent.

Here's why, Boston is rapidly becoming the mass exodus point for many corporate mainstays such as Fidelity or Gillette. A lot of so-called stable work is leaving the region and will exert downward pressure on home sales and prices. Now being in a stable profession, however, mitigates that risk because the chances for a short sale are rather low whereas for the typical white collar type in finance, IT, or corporate headquarter type of work, it's somewhat the opposite. Believe me, a slew of $100K IT/finance jobs will be moving to Carolina or Texas in the next few years and this not even including the globalization of work to India, Philippines, China, or eastern Europe.

When this happens, you won't have the cash to re-located to Raleigh N.C. and instead, be stuck with an anchor or a short sale, wiping out your downpayment. And if you look at places like Austin TX, one can buy a nice place for $230K (i.e. http://yahoo.idx.prudentialowens.com/ ... truncated ... )
which you could probably afford, earning 3/4 of your Mass salary and banking half your downpayment for a similar home in Mass. These are where jobs will be in the future, not Boston.

Editor's Note: This post was edited to abbreviate a URL which was widening the page due to the way that the forum software lays out posts. No other changes have been made, and the URL still points to the original destination - only its display has been shortened.
Back to top
Display posts from previous:   
Post new topic   Reply to topic    bostonbubble.com Forum Index -> Greater Boston Real Estate & Beyond All times are GMT
Goto page Previous  1, 2
Page 2 of 2

 
Jump to:  
You can post new topics in this forum
You can reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum


Forum posts are owned by the original posters.
Forum boards are Copyright 2005 - present, bostonbubble.com.
Privacy policy in effect.
Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group