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Boston Bubble Brief: The Real Story for MA - Apr 2009
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mpr



Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 344

PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2009 1:11 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

GenXer wrote:
The 'explosive' products such as CDOs were passed quietly and signed by Clinton into law without much debate:

http://social.stocktock.com/profiles/blogs/synthetic-cdo-time-bomb

So, let us stop blaming Wall Street and Capitalism. The problems we are facing today are more often than not an unintended side effect of the feel-good legislations and regulations which are done for political purpose more than for the purpose of solving problems, which in most cases can simply be solved by not trying to solve them in the first place.


The act you refer to "specifies that products offered by banking institutions
could not be regulated as futures contracts" (quote from your link).
Now granted that lack of regulation was a mistake, but I guess you
should be in favor of it, since you think essentially all regulation is bad.

How can you complain about government regulation and then blame the
meltdown on a failure of government to regulate ? Dont you think this
is just a little inconsistent ?

I should add that at least the stock GOP position is that this was Clinton's
fault because he signed the act. At least this is internally consistent, because
they dont claim all regulation is bad. However its not very convincing
because the meltdown happened under Bush, so even if Clinton did
not forsee the consequences of the act he signed, the actual damage
was done under the noses of the Bush appointed SEC team.

Its the difference between merely forgetting to lock your door, and
standing around doing nothing while people are actually robbing your
house.
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mpr



Joined: 06 Jun 2009
Posts: 344

PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2009 1:21 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

GenXer wrote:

Now, granted, there were some creative products made by Wall Street, and it is possible that we may have had this recession, but if you do some research, its easy to find that banks were routinely sued for 'racist' practices of denying loans to those whom they considered undeserving (primarily 'minorities'). So, if anything, government is responsible for forcing risk upon banks.


Thats not quite how it worked.

The lawsuits were against banks for discriminating against minorities and
certain neighborhoods (redlining). The result of these were that banks
were forced to develop a uniform standard for loan applications,
using FICO scores etc. This was in the early to mid 90's.

Much later, after 2004, the demand for securitized mortgages caused
the originating banks to dramatically lower the conditions under which
someone could get a mortgage.

The two things had very little to do with each other - in the time period
in between the banks had higher - but nondiscriminatory - lending standards.
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GenXer



Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703

PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2009 10:23 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Regulation increases the cost of doing business. Consumers pay the price. Laws and regulations which redistribute wealth are neither commonsense nor fair. Even with all of the disclosure, many of the products are extremely risky. The solution is quite simple - let them fail. Don't bail them out. There will always be booms and busts. Contract the money supply when we have a bust. Expand when we have a boom. Regulate the amount of money necessary to buy a house (20% min). Or regulate the credit necessary to purchase something. This is fair and commonsense, and does not discriminate. Maybe the economy will not grow as much as fast, but it will help control crises like this.
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Xenos



Joined: 24 Jun 2009
Posts: 31
Location: Western Mass

PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2009 10:40 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

GenXer -- do you see how you decry regulation in one breath and yet propose it in another? We used to have sound underwriting standards, and conservative monetary policy like you suggest. We got away from that, in part out of a desire to broaden the access to mortgages, but mainly because the financial industry lobbied hard for freedom from regulation, using the same free market arguments you have made upthread.


Any regulation necessarily involves redistributing wealth or opportunity. Instead of reciting dogma, the two sides to the debate ought to be working out what exact regulations and policies allowed the recklessness of the last decade, and how they need to be changed to fix this. We can disagree about the relative guilt of Clinton and Bush, but there seems to be broad agreement about the need to return to regulations and business practice of 30 years ago. Except for the people in power in Wall Street and Washington. These people are in both parties.
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GenXer



Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703

PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2009 1:23 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

As far as economic policy, the only thing that made sense under Bush were the tax cuts. Both parties are guilty of overspending and over-regulation. Any regulation which redistributes wealth is automatically suspect. Why? Because usually the negative side effects can dominate, and nobody can predict what these would be, so, it makes sense NOT to regulate at all (in most cases). I am against all regulation, except the truly common-sense one. This is not dogma - it is the observation that regulation has failed miserably, and more regulation will fail even more miserably (isn't that what some people are arguing? more regulation?). Its laughable at best, and reckless at the worst to suggest that regulating yesterday's products will protect us from tomorrow's inventions. More regulations? The more you bias the field towards the big businesses who pass the costs on to the consumer. I don't see any logic in this. There is nothing to compromise about. But I'm afraid most people can't see the slippery slope towards socialism, where every decision is outsourced to the all knowing, all regulating and all caring government, so we the dumb masses do not have to worry about our welfare when our benevolent and all-encompassing government will regulate our lives to the minute. This is exactly where everything is heading.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2009 2:27 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

MPR: You think you're smart because you've learned how to be artful in your sarcasim, and you cower behind it. It is clear that you've spent more of your god given talent in the pursuit of intellectual masturbation of trying to insult others to make you feel better. You get off (most likely aroused) on insulting people. Ask yourself if you feel good about yourself when you insult someone with great craft. If you do, you should talk to a therapist because its not a happy place. A better investment of your time would be to be to try to be a subject matter expert and if someone disagrees you can be helpful instead of insulting.

Your quote:

Quote:
So now you're claiming that your efficient market followed the government
over the cliff like a pack of lemmings ? I thought the market was meant
to be smarter than the incompetent government. Are you blaming
the government for over regulation, or is your argument that market
participants have to be protected from themselves ? Make up your mind.

You complain that I haven't proved that anything you've said is wrong,
but before something can actually be wrong, it has to at least be
internally coherent.


What I've always been talking about is fundamentals.

Look at these charts:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Currency_component_of_the_US_money_supply_1959-2007.gif

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Buoyancy.svg

In the buoyancy diagram, on the top you can see that the density of the fluid pushes against the gravity on the mass of the object.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Ramseypic.JPG

This diagram relates to an economist called Frank Ramsey. He basically said that the capital of a worker is equal to their output minus the depreciation of the capital and minus their consumption.

When you think about it, what happens when a government changes the properties of this equation? A government can affect capital of a worker or consumption of a worker by adjusting the depreciation of the capital (flooding the economy with money - see the first diagram).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Stress_Strain_Ductile_Material.png

This diagram shows the stress strain of a material. In the prior Ramsey's formula, think about each worker as a different material that feels different stresses and strains because their constitution is different. Basically, that means that under stress, someone with a lot of money might not be affected by other forces that would wipe out others. I have used thermodynamics as my understanding because you might have a constant heat in an economy and depending on if you're stone or copper, you feel, conduct and deform under that heat differently.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_law_of_thermodynamics

In the first law of thermodynamics you can get a sense of the behavior. It says that energy can be transformed from one to another but not destroyed or created.

Now think about the emerging nations and their effect. Our economy was like an insulated house that had one insulated wall get knocked down with NAFTA and others to China. Think about the trade deficit and think about a Ramsey's formula on one side of an ocean and an entirely different one on the other.

The last part is the Reserve Rate. If the FED says that a bank needs a reserve rate of 5%, that means they can lend out 95% and always have 5% on hand at all times. They did this to stop the runnings of the banks, like in the movie "It's a Wonderful Life". Anyway when the FED lowered the reserve rates to say 3%, that meant that instead of having to have 5% on hand at all times, you only needed 3% and you could increase your lending to 97% (putting more borrowed money into circulation). With more money available to loan out, that's more money that a college can force a family to borrow from in order to send their children to college (which is why college tuitions skyrocketted). Further, people competing for a house could overreach due to the availability of credit, and either you overreached or over paid or you didn't get a house. Now is that following someone off a cliff or is that just trying to live your life given a whole new set of rules? The government was changing the rules quickly and because they had their hand on the tiller, they are more responsible than anyone. What the private sector was doing was riding the waves created by the government who were adding this turbulence.

Alan Greenspan talked about an "Age of Turbulence". He tries to get people to believe that he was adjusting rates to dampen the turbulence of the stock market.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tuned_mass_damper.gif

This dampening device is used to reduce an unwanted rhythm and motion. What Greenspan didn't realize was that his tuned damper approach created its own negative impact by flooding the economy with a credit bubble. It was the credit markets that were hurt this past September.

The reason why the banks are guilty is that they tried to go faster down the government's path so that they could get PROFIT. If they didn't, they didn't survive. The responsible people went out of business. The government gave the green light to behave in certain ways and promoted certain goals that were irresponsible because they were unsustainable, and even prudent investors had to guess because again, who the hell knew how much more and more and more money would flood in to the economy by the government?

Lastly, my theory has to do with inflation versus deflation. If I have $1M in the bank and say someone owes me $1M. The person who owes me $1M wants INFLATION, why? Because that $1M will be worth less.

No cool diagram, but you can read through this to get the gist.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_value

So basically debtors want inflation because their debt will be worth less to them. If you're a creditor, you want a stable economy where you can assess the risk of loaning out your wealth. Banks right now are leery about lending because they are afraid that Obama is going to print more money and devalue it and the money that is worth something today that they lend out will be worth next to nothing when they get it back.

Now what is the political fall out when you have more debtors wanting to shirk their obligations? They elect a socialist that will dillute their debt. Hell, the US wants to dillute their debt and other nations are very concerned about us dilluting our currency.

http://taxesandgrowth.ncpa.org/news/do-the-rich-and-businesses-pay-their-fair-share

It is clear that the wealthy pay the freight in our nation, but the saying is true about democracy, it is two wolves and a sheep voting on what to have for dinner. So basically the lower half that pays next to nothing relative to the top 25% for our Military, our school teacher, our fire fighters, our roads, bridges, etc. The socialistic politicians will make the bottom half resent the people who are actually paying the freight and giving them a better quality of life. For if someone has third world skills in a first world nation, they get a much better quality of life than someone in a third world nation. So basically we have people who stamp out bumpers who want to drive Cadillacs, get season tickets to the Detroit Lions, have a flat screen t.v. from China whilst their competition is eating rice and drives his bike to work.

Aristotle warned about the dangers of a democracy. He said that if the majority of the poor vote their self interests, they will put too much burden on the wealthy and they will dissolve.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0e/Aristotle-constitutions-2.png

The reason why I talk so much about properties of materials is that it gets to our Constitution. It is what we consist of. If people start to belive a self serving delusion of entitlement we're fucking cooked, curtain, over, game over. When times get tough the tough get going, we don't dissolve and act like a bunch of pussies. Obama uses eloquent and lofty words that he learned at Harvard, but now that you see people's heads bashed in on the streets of Iran you can see the fucking ugly side of making those lofty words real. The reality that he didn't have the balls to stand behind. People who do burden themselves with reality carry the freight, carry the load for our society and we need more people who can be the bedrock that we stand on.


So the real problem isn't George W. Bush, it is the fact that we're in a global market and our competition for labor is paid peanuts. So if you're an investor and rich, you can invest in emerging nations. If you don't have money to invest in them, you have to compete with them, which is why you're losing and the rich are winning. The poor aren't much more moral about things because when they got their stimulus money they ran right out and bought foreign products.

So this big recession has to do with globalization, a consumer nation (ours) in delusion to appease self serving masses, and the wealthy who are waiting to see how governments choose to move forward so they can see what the new playing rules are going to be and make their risk assessments. If we injected some responsibility and strengthen our constitution through our values we can build and people will invest in us. If we become a delusional nation that is self serving, we're toast.
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Boston ITer
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2009 2:55 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

As I'm reading this thread, there's a dizzying sense of two types of camps, one is the free market of being a self-made person vs that of wealth distribution to cater to a plebiscite.

Now, here's the question, of the concentrated wealth out there, how many are honestly, self-made individuals (ala the family restaurant chain owner, Steve Jobs, Jesse Livermore {the self-made trader}, etc) and how many are those who use cohort effects to retain their sense of wealth accumulation.. the lobbyists, the collusion of bankers (ala Drexel-Burnham), etc?

Then, on the flip side, you have those who simply want a job and earn a decent wages for a day's work. Are they asking for too much like lifelong employment security, etc? So I think the problem is that there's a bit of a divide and conquer going on when discussing the 'govt vs business' where in effect, entrepreneur types are pitted against W-2 employees and vice versa. All and all, throughout this, the elitists in both categories, i.e. robber barons for business types and politicians for W-2ers, seem to do well in the cacophony of the underlings bashing one another.
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Xenos



Joined: 24 Jun 2009
Posts: 31
Location: Western Mass

PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2009 3:34 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="GenXer"]As far as economic policy, the only thing that made sense under Bush were the tax cuts. -- snipping for brevity-- More regulations? The more you bias the field towards the big businesses who pass the costs on to the consumer. I don't see any logic in this. There is nothing to compromise about. But I'm afraid most people can't see the slippery slope towards socialism, where every decision is outsourced to the all knowing, all regulating and all caring government, so we the dumb masses do not have to worry about our welfare when our benevolent and all-encompassing government will regulate our lives to the minute. This is exactly where everything is heading.[/quote]

I can't really argue with your logic here, as there are many links I am just not following. Your background is obviously in economics, and mine is not, but your arguments are marshalled for making political points, but taking your conclusions at face value is just impossible. More regulation vs. less regulation -- that is the binary choice we must make? How about different, as in, more regulation where needed, and dropping the regulation that is outmoded? And what regulation would you drop as unnecessary? Since your post lamented the loss of the old underwriting standards, does not mandating a return to those standards mean increasing regulation?

This is what I mean by 'dogma' -- regulation=bad and free market=good and Obama=Socialism and Bush=Fascism is not logic or argument, it is a catechism. We have a mixed economy, partly free market and partly socialistic. We have a dynamic balance between the two, with major political parties offering policy changes trending one way or the other for the public to choose from. This is how the game is played. Don't be so pissy about it.
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GenXer



Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 703

PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2009 4:00 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm having a field day today...thank you guys for the entertainment - I think we all need a bit of that.

Quote:
It is clear that you've spent more of your god given talent in the pursuit of intellectual masturbation of trying to insult others to make you feel better


Unfortunately, this tends to happen when we try to bend reality to fit preconceived notions of how reality should be, rather than how it is.

Quote:
in the cacophony of the underlings bashing one another.


Yup. The sense of guilt is overwhelming. Spread the guilt, spread the weatlh. This is typically how it happens.

Quote:
there's a dizzying sense of two types of camps, one is the free market of being a self-made person vs that of wealth distribution to cater to a plebiscite


Thats exactly it - get elected at all cost (that is, paid for by the self-made camp, whether they want it or not!)

Quote:
Don't be so pissy about it.


Good point Wink

I'm pissy for now. Political ambitions are almost always considered 'dirty', but maybe someday when I have nothing else to do...

In the meanwhile, I'm trying to spread the gospel of personal responsibility coupled with basic financial understanding. My background is actually in Engineering and Math, so 'looks' can be deceiving. But one thing thats hard to buy for any amount of money is real common sense. Its easy to be a W2. Been there, done that. Now try to be a 'self-made'. See where it leads you - taxes, expenses, family. You'll quickly realize that Socialism is going to destroy you sooner or later unless you vote it out, one socialist at a time.
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Boston ITer
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PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2009 5:35 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Its easy to be a W2. Been there, done that. Now try to be a 'self-made'. See where it leads you - taxes, expenses, family.


Self-employment requires both health and professional liability insurances of all sorts. All and all, it's quite challenging these days unless it's a whole family business like the local pizzeria. For the most part, since many of us serve corporate clients, there's also the lag time making someone an approved vendor for let's say a Honeywell or an EMC so what happens is a huge farming system of subcontractors.

In my experience, the only really successful self-employed people I'd met (outside of the real estate paradigm), during the past decade were believe it or not... daytraders (and a few accountants). These are the daytraders who'd transitioned through the '01-'03 period w/o losing their shirts. The other self-employed store owners, engineers, etc were just making ends meet.
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Xenos



Joined: 24 Jun 2009
Posts: 31
Location: Western Mass

PostPosted: Wed Jun 24, 2009 6:44 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

As a lefty I have been more than pissy over the last eight years, so I should be one to talk, anyway.

Good luck as an entrepreneur. As the African saying goes, a successful man is like a well where everybody goes to drink.
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balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204

PostPosted: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:05 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boston ITer wrote:

Self-employment requires both health and professional liability insurances of all sorts. All and all, it's quite challenging these days unless it's a whole family business like the local pizzeria. For the most part, since many of us serve corporate clients, there's also the lag time making someone an approved vendor for let's say a Honeywell or an EMC so what happens is a huge farming system of subcontractors.

In my experience, the only really successful self-employed people I'd met (outside of the real estate paradigm), during the past decade were believe it or not... daytraders (and a few accountants). These are the daytraders who'd transitioned through the '01-'03 period w/o losing their shirts. The other self-employed store owners, engineers, etc were just making ends meet.


Even doctors don't start their own practices anymore. However, you find more entrepreneurs in cities which are growing because at a minimum there's always new clients. In my hometown of San Antonio, for example, whenever a new development goes up there's always a need for new stores in that area. The greater Boston area just isn't growing and the existing businesses have a long time to entrench themselves and that's part of what makes living here expensive.

I mentioned this before about entrepreneurship. How does Boston expect to have so much in the future when even dual income families with cushy corporate jobs can barely afford to live here? To be an entrepreneur, you need more than willingness to take risk but much more the ability and the high cost of living and doing business here has sapped the ability of incoming residents to take those risks.
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balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204

PostPosted: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:11 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

GenXer wrote:
Quote:
Don't be so pissy about it.


Good point Wink

I'm pissy for now. Political ambitions are almost always considered 'dirty', but maybe someday when I have nothing else to do...



Come to think of it, I'm pretty pissy too. It all started when I moved to Boston strangely. I wonder if there's a connection... You have to admit that if you don't see some special value in Boston culture (old things, unions, small businesses, Red Sox, etc), then it's hard to be happy here.
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samz



Joined: 19 Feb 2008
Posts: 102
Location: Medford, MA

PostPosted: Thu Jun 25, 2009 12:28 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Boston ITer wrote:
As I'm reading this thread, there's a dizzying sense of two types of camps, one is the free market of being a self-made person vs that of wealth distribution to cater to a plebiscite.

Now, here's the question, of the concentrated wealth out there, how many are honestly, self-made individuals (ala the family restaurant chain owner, Steve Jobs, Jesse Livermore {the self-made trader}, etc) and how many are those who use cohort effects to retain their sense of wealth accumulation.. the lobbyists, the collusion of bankers (ala Drexel-Burnham), etc?


I think that really cuts to the heart of it: to what degree is anyone really self-made, in a tightly-bound, highly-specialized society? Our individual successes probably could not occur without a supportive environment that includes extensive infrastructure, an educated and healthy population of employees and consumers, a strong system of laws, etc. We can certainly argue about how much or how little is needed, but I think its hard to argue with the basic idea of having a government that represents, protects and promotes collective interests. It's good for everyone.

Here's a question for the pure free-marketeers. There are plenty of models of societies that are socialist to varying degrees. What does your alternative look like? If you had complete control over the government (laws, regulations, everything), what would you do?
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Boston ITer
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 25, 2009 1:07 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
It all started when I moved to Boston strangely. I wonder if there's a connection... You have to admit that if you don't see some special value in Boston culture (old things, unions, small businesses, Red Sox, etc), then it's hard to be happy here.


Many Boston area transplants have told me the same thing. In essence, if there isn't the h.s. school chums/extended family network, it can be a plexing place. All and all, many of the tech diaspora are a part of the transplant crowd so for them, leaving Boston was psychologically easier since all of their original contacts had come from elsewhere. One of my colleagues, who was a Univ of Texas alum, hated the Boston area like no other. His whining was that both, the post-graduate women were rude and the city was as cold as ice (more in terms of overall attitude than weather). Part of what woke me up was that in general, people are adaptable but Bostonians, as a group, are same old same old and socially conservative with scores of lifelong *members' only* clubs, high school alums (arguing the same pts 20 yrs later), and then the outsiders who hang out at all the nearby adult education ctrs. That scene in 'Good Will Hunting', where Matt Damon and Robin Williams finally bonded on the re-collection of the Carlton Fisk home run, kinda says it all. You'd be amazed at how many non-Bostonians are astonished when I still reference Havlicek, Cowens, and Russell in everyday b-ball talk. It's like 'get away Townie'.
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