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Are prices rising again?
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Dorchester grandma
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 27, 2007 2:29 am GMT    Post subject: Are prices rising again? Reply with quote

I have recently started looking for a condo again after waiting for several months for prices to come down to a more affordable level.
I have been looking in Northern Mass, Haverhill, Salem, Lynn area. It seems as if the properties which are the least attractive, run down, on busy streets or shoebox size have come down in price. However anything even remotely desirable is still way overpriced. In Dorchester where I currently rent, I have seen "handiman specials and fixer uppers" for about $200,000. No bargains here.

If anything it seems that prices are higher than ever and I am still priced out of the market even in the working class neighborhoods where I have been looking.

I am beginning to think that renting is my only real alternative unless I choose to leave the state. The bubble bursting, crash or even a significant softening of the market has never happened and at this point it does not seem like it will. Any thoughts on this?
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AgentGrn



Joined: 28 Sep 2006
Posts: 82

PostPosted: Tue Feb 27, 2007 4:43 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Housing price rises on the upside generally happen pretty quickly. That's one thing we can all agree on.

However, the downside is always sticky. For sellers, there's usually an emotional attachment to a property ... and certainly a resistance to sell at a lower value. Once reality sets in and the whole mystique of flipping and real estate goes away again as it always does, then prices will retreat to a proper value.

I am fairly certain that time will reward patience, especially if the money you're not spending on buying today is being saved in some form or another.
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CJ
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 12:46 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Smae here! I am a bit out of patience now, after waiting for almost 2-3 years. It's really bad that my wife and I have reasonable incomes, savings and great credits, but still can not afford a starter home ( something under 340k-360k). In Waltham, there is almost nothing under 400k for an ok size SFH. I wonder why most working classes can afford half-million dollars houses....???

If this strange market will not change, I will move out next year and never come back.''


Cheers,
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RMG
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 1:08 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't understand this at all. People are leaving the state in droves. People with good incomes and credit can't afford decent homes. Foreclosures are skyrocketing. Houses stay, unsold, for 6 months and now, longer.

Yet sellers think they'll have the golden ticket and price high and grab a stupid buyer. The cost of home ownership in Massachusetts is not in sync with incomes. People are still stuck in the mindset of 2001-2005. That was a housing bubble that bordered on criminal. If I were a seller, I'd be careful in clinging to inflated housing values that were part of an illusion.

Yet, as we speak, there are just enough idiots buying to keep the majority of sellers and buyers miserable.

Until prices come down dramatically, I simply won't buy. I want a house. I don't want a lifetime of debt and basically not having enough money to enjoy my life.

...so, in closing I'd just tell you to be patient or move if you can. Someone else can buy and stay up at night wondering how they'll pay the mortgage while the rest of us, although we really want to have a house, can enjoy life.

Our day will come my friend. Our day will come.
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RMG
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 1:24 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

...furthermore, if any of you are like me, you are actually starting to resent these sellers and real estate "clerks." I'm getting to the point where I'm just going to look for "for sale by owner" properties.

These people, who seem charming, are really out to exploit your fears about housing going back up. Well, now that the playing field is starting to level, there really should be a concerted effort by the potential buying community to hold our ground and let this bleed out for a couple of years.

Remember, they are calling your bluff. They can't afford so they want to be left holding the bloated, overvalued baby they are geting smoked by.

Can't angry. Get tough and get real. It's your hard earned money they want to steal.

...don't let them have it!
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Thu Mar 01, 2007 11:13 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I want guys like you living in my State, I don't want spineless dumb morons. Please don't leave, keep lowballing, you'll find a seller that is willing to deal.
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RMG
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 2:05 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sorry for the poor grammer. I wish there was an edit feature. I was multi-tasking and had to get it out quickly.

What I meant to say was "Get Angry," and that the sellers are the ones that are getting smoked by their overvalued, bloated baby. Let them stay stuck holding it.

Also, I am really getting ticked off by these sellers. So much so that their atitudes are going to cost them the deal.

Like I say, I'm not in a bidding war here. I will buy when the price is right.

...they are in a bidding war with themselves and they can go down in flames for all I care.
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RMG
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 2:10 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also, I wouldn't even call what I expect lowballing. I expect to pay a reasonable amount of money for a decent property. Not $400,000 for a dog. Let me tell you, a lot of these are dogs.
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AgentGrn



Joined: 28 Sep 2006
Posts: 82

PostPosted: Fri Mar 02, 2007 6:58 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's always been said that finding a home is about location, location, location ... but it's more or less becoming about price, price, price.

My wife and I know what we can afford to fit the lifestyle that we want to live (responsibly) ... and house prices are still incredibly lofty. It's kinda funny to look at the Lereah book cover and see the house out of reach ... if that wasn't telling.

Somewhere along the line, I saw a parody of the cover where the house crashes into the ground ... and for the life of me, I haven't been able to find it.
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 2:00 pm GMT    Post subject: Don't Buy Now! Reply with quote

This is easy. If you are smart with your money and your future, "Don't buy now!" Hold off for 5-6 months at least and you'll be rewarded by saving 10's of thousands of dollars.

If you wait even longer, you'll save more. Prices aren't going anywhere but down for a while, then they'll level off for a while and then, maybe in about 5 years they'll start creeping back up.

This is easy.
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RMG
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PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 4:53 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know how many articles I've seen lately that say the housing bust is going to go deep and ugly. On the other hand, there are the economic optimists that keep saying, "The housing market is nearing the bottom because surely the sellers will bring their asking prices way down and then everyone will be making housing transactions again and things will be OK."

....uh, not so fast. Someone forgot to tell the sellers that their house is still on the market because they're only bringing down their prices, like $5,000 here, then a few months later, another $5000, etc.

I don't think their Realtors are advising them correctly. That is, look people, when the economists say "way down" they mean it. Chances are you will not be the lucky one and you are not going to sell.

Realtors, who can't let go of the good life forged out of the obscene, over-priced market either are in denial, or in all probability, owe too much debt based on what they thought was going to be a never-ending gravy train and now can't advise their clients to price reasonably, because their cut will be too small.

...thus contributing and keeping afloat this nasty death spiral.

Just let go sellers. Price reasonably and drop your prices now. If you wait much longer, you are really going to get whacked.

this is the reality now and trying to scare would-be buyers into the "buy now, prices are going to keep going up," way of thinking is so 2005.
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AgentGrn



Joined: 28 Sep 2006
Posts: 82

PostPosted: Tue Mar 13, 2007 5:06 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've been reading the financial news ... and it looks like the first big wave of the subprime tsunami has just come ashore the past few days.

New Century has had its stock halted on NYSE after plunging to $1.66. First really, really big subprime lender to go under so spectactularly. And to think, the 52-week high on that stock was over $50/share.

And there's lots, lots more to follow. Subprime is all but dead, and Alt-A is going to suffer as well as the implosion affects that market.

I'll agree with RMG ... but I'll add this. Price your place correctly, and do it now. Otherwise, it'll be your turn to be "priced out" once the credit oasis is dried up and gone.

(Imagine that ... a return to "real" lending standards. Who woulda thunk it?)
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Harry Mudd
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PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2007 3:19 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

The collapse of the subprime lenders will decimate the demand side. If Alt-A liar loans follow, and they very likely will, that's another 10-15% of potential buyers down the tubes. This is the first undeniable sign that there will be no soft landing and even the mainstream media is being forced to admit that housing is in trouble.

Patience will be rewarded.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Wed Mar 14, 2007 4:08 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I totally agree. From the population of buyers you lose the speculative ones, and now the ones that were overreaching to begin with. I wonder how much that consists of. Of course it depends on the price bracket.

I think the activity will also depend on the interest rate. Sales upticks and declines recently seem to follow the fluctuations in the interest which is following a weird course. If rates go up, people in arms will be in trouble. Also, people with existing low interest rates will not want to walk away from their low cost of capital, unless the buying opportunity is so great (which would mean steep discounts for them to move).

I wonder if PMI will be more expensive? I wonder if they can ever hike PMI on an existing note?

Local communities will add more good news with the steeper local tax rates.

Newsflash to tax payers. Our Military is at war, we are not at war. Someone needs to pay for the war. The Republicans pushed to get the wealth to the richest people that pay a greater portion of their income in taxes, so we got more tax revenue which is part of the way we financed the war. This course, however, will create an economic divide. Haliburton left for Dubais. Capitalism can move across borders. I wonder how bad it will need to get before people get wise and start to think as Americans. Haliburton screwed us and said thank you very much American tax payers. This stuff is creeping up on us and we need to battle back. I think that we will see fluctuations in currency. If the business world can not balance this, we will most likely have deeper inequities and eventually more war. Paying attention before this grows will keep this manageable.

I know this doesn't seem like it relates to housing, but when you wake up and think about it, we're buying homes during wartime. It doesn't feel like wartime, but ask yourself is the war going good, can the war grow to a regional war? Are those in power doing a good job containing it? If not, what will a regional war with players like Russia and China and the US at odds in financial and trading partner interests behind the scenes and pulling the strings mean? I would take the blinders off right now and open up to the potential of the surrounding mess before making a long term commitment. We are at war and at best we have a hefty bill to pay. We are all in la, la land because the war is at arms length. We are like people that are drinking like they think it is an open bar and the tab hasn't shown up.
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leaving boston



Joined: 26 Jul 2006
Posts: 11
Location: Rhode Island

PostPosted: Mon Mar 19, 2007 5:26 pm GMT    Post subject: Media Victims Reply with quote

Whenever I listen to CNBC, I keep hearing analysts predicting when the Fed will drop rates again. This question goes hand-in-hand with when the housing market will reach the Bottom.

I've heard that the housing will hit the bottom at the end of the year. The conventional wisdom is that the Fed will see the Economy weaken and they'll start lowering rates. The assumption will be that when the Fed drops rates (if they drop rates), then the housing market will bounce back up.

I doubt this is the case, and I think the Media and the analysts are up to their old tricks. This is high school Economics 101: as long as folks have jobs, people will scrape by (nobody's under pressure to drop prices). The Bottom happens when folks start losing their jobs - this is also the point when the Fed will intervene.

A sign you're at the Bottom: when you're worried about your own job, and you're not even thinking about buying a house.
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every day there's a bubble waiting to form
all you have to do is find where it is
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