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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 5:17 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

This has been a hot year for stocks, but the Dow was at like 11500 before Bush started and it has only broken 12000 this past year. This has been the poorest performing 8 years of the Dow Jones Industrials since the 1970's. Do you honestly think he has been good for industry?

People will give Bush credit for this year's stock lift but don't give him any blame for the housing bubble which happened in his tenure.

I think the increase in tuition costs during his tenure have significantly outpaced the rate of growth in ones tuition saving account. Younger home buyers are also carrying much higher student loans.

http://www.methodsreporter.comAccording to this report 44% of adults with student loans have delayed buying a house.

The difference between private and public college tuition has grown further apart at an increasing rate since 1980 and the past 6 years have had the steepest increase in public 4 year college tuition.

On page 4 of this report, below, you can see that during Bush's administration, he increased the Pell Grants by 8 percent while college tuition went up 36% Did you get 36% in your tuition fund?

http://www.house.gov/tierney/press/pell_tierney.pdf

Do you think Bush is watching your back on this one? Maybe people needed to use their home's value as an atm to pay for junior's college?

Housing, gas prices, heating oil, college tuitions, etc. have shot up in his tenure not to mention the debt he has created. This whole Iraq thing, man, he is completely off the reservation on this one... Not to digress too much Wink Honestly though, he is such a wildcard, who knows what he is going to do. Making a 30 year mortgage commitment requires a level of confidence that your future isn't going to be too turbulent. What will our economic future be if he makes more even graver misjudgements.

I honestly want to like this guy, he is a bit of a kindred spirit (we're both train wrecks that married well). Has he been good for industry? negative. Education? negative. Security? negative.

As far realtors not being responsible for pricing. Please.... Why don't realtors charge a flat fee then?

Regarding interest rates, read Greenspan's comments in Feb. 2004

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boardDocs/speeches/2004/20040223/default.htm

He talks a lot about debt service ratios remaining stable despite lower interest rates. I don't understand why he didn't focus on why it remained stable instead of lowering when interest rates were falling. I take this as he was trying to mitigate the impact of a failing economy. If people were refinancing and getting lower interest rates why wouldn't their debt service lower? People were falling behind and I think the FED ran out of rope.

You're right about the spenders, but how long does a younger generation have to wait to begin their family life in a home. I'm not talking about people driving Hummers, I'm talking about a hard working family that now need two earners to raise their kids in a crumby condo when they should have the buying power to have a house. We are falling further and further behind in quality of life, buying power, and the lower interest rates provided a veil. Without that safety net (taking out equity with the lower refinancing rate and maintaining the same mortgage) people will have to be more disciplined. Costs need to be maintained, tuition, gasoline, oil, medical, etc. Bankrupcy is skyrocketing because the refinancing is not an option when rates rise.

Predatory lending- check out what the impact of the "Do not Call List" had on some mortgage brokers.

I wonder what your thoughts are on reverse mortgages.

Bush's policies have winners and losers. I am on the winning side, I have done pretty well but because I am doesn't make me ignore the impact of the losers. Guys at Goldman Sachs had a great year. Those that have to do their 3rd tour in Iraq had a bad year. If the winners don't start to pay attention we'll all be losers. Realtors never seemed concerned that good times might end until they did.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Fri Jan 12, 2007 3:09 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

One other thing: When you look at Bush and Rove's election strategy to win versus say Gore's. Gore used to say that the President represents all Americans. Rove thought it was too costly and ineffective to try to represent everyone’s so they concentrated on Red States and certain industries that they could rely on to pony up donations. They found a dominant coalition and segmented the population.

The housing situation is one physical resultant of policies that have winners and losers. Some people think the economy is great and others are being buried with increasing bills. Even though our segment is doing ok, if another one is getting torpedoed we should care about making sure that things are a bit more equitable. I understand that life is not fair, but we pay farm subsidies, we give tax breaks to oil companies, we bailed out the airlines several times, etc. Was it fair that Michael Brown, the Arabian horse president was the FEMA Director? Was it fair that many had to suffer because of this aristocracy's incompetence? When a younger generation can't afford housing it is a problem for our society.

Another free trip on the merry-go-round...
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Same _guy_again
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:07 pm GMT    Post subject: Didn't see the pg2 button... thought you'd bailed Reply with quote

Midway through 2000, when Bush was still having the oval office recarpeted, an equity bubble created by previous administration resulted in bad news for investors. Start counting in 2002 when DJIA dipped under 8000, and you see 9% CAGR for 5 years. Also the sturdy oil, pharmaceutical and retail companies which replaced those unsustainable techs are focussed on dividend yield, not price appreciation. The economy has had an excellent run for investors under Bush, maybe one of the best times since the 1970s.

"People will give Bush credit for this year's stock lift but don't give him any blame for the housing bubble which happened in his tenure. "

Apply same logic to former president and tech stock bubble. I don't have it in for Clinton, I liked him. At the time I was thinking the deluded buyers of petfood.com dug their own grave.
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:16 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

"On page 4 of this report, below, you can see that during Bush's administration, he increased the Pell Grants by 8 percent while college tuition went up 36% Did you get 36% in your tuition fund? "

Many people did. As stated previously compound growth rate of the DJIA has been over 9% since 2002. A 36% increase over the same period equals 6.5% compound growth rate.

If you had the forethought to buy oil stocks when a Texan was elected, you would have obliterated that growth rate.
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Same_guy_again
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PostPosted: Sat Jan 13, 2007 9:32 pm GMT    Post subject: More of same Reply with quote

"The difference between private and public college tuition has grown further apart at an increasing rate since 1980..."

Price diversity is a good sign for everybody. It implies a greater range of quality and services offered. The less homogenous combination of school acceptance standards and newer programs like the five-year masters path produces more specialized graduates.

Picking your next VP-to-be, grab someone from the top half of Harvard. Picking someone to drive your MRP softwae for ten years, grab someone from the middle of UMASS.

I'm not saying rich kids are smarter. I'm saying the entry standards to the prestige schools are higher, and getting more so as fast as the prices are increasing.

"... and the past 6 years have had the steepest increase in public 4 year college tuition. "

Supply and demand. More kids are graduating from public colleges, not less. Another good sign for the USA.

These arguments are splattering everywhere. Maybe we just disagree on everything.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 6:29 pm GMT    Post subject: basking in the afterglow Reply with quote

Basking in the afterglow of yesterday's Patriots win.

First, thank you for your time to offer your thoughts and this isn't just the endorphins talking....

I love when people still roll out the Bush adopted the tech bubble thing. Still blaming Clinton after all these years. Your practice of cherry picking everything positive for Bush and blaming negative on Clinton is not wisdom it is propaganda. That's the Kool Aid talking. You’re totally wrong about the Dow Jones under our President's watch. His administration has seen the lowest growth since the 1970's

http://stockcharts.com/charts/historical/


As far as the Haaahhvaadd comments: Harvard understood that the price tag for tuition was a barrier to entry for most of the best and brightest. The majority of the smartest students do not come from wealthy families. Harvard has enough money to cover the tuition for those that qualify for enrollment. They do this so the rich can commingle with the best and brightest. Massachusetts needs to follow the practice of Harvard and provide opportunity for the best and brightest to grow here. Recently, Harvard has been criticized for not providing good service to freshman and underclassmen. I have spoken with PhD's that do the most obscure bizarre explorations because they are required to do something that is unique so that it can be added to the Harvard Library of knowledge. It takes a guy like Mumbles Menino to get the concept of "Smart from the Start". The "freshmen" in the housing market, the younger generation are getting the shaft as well. Further, Harvard which has increased enrollment has strained the local housing market in Cambridge. Would it have been fair for the city to require Harvard to provide housing for their students? You didn't hear a peep from bleeding hearts of Harvard regarding the housing market disruption they were causing in Cambridge. These "future world leaders" can't even get it right in their own back yard. Maybe some of the Harvard Alumni that come from modest roots should show some balls and not forget where they came from. This argument shouldn’t be left to schmucks like me.

One of your best points is that because a greater number of students in college the result are a greater stratification of the professional industry and the result is a widening gap in the range of housing. I'm inferring that because Boston is a college town, it pumps in this talent and pushes out the undeserving. Is gentrification a physical resultant from a free capitalistic society? Is there a way to keep things from getting out of hand without resorting to ridiculous socialistic approaches? I think with careful planning we can accommodate our successes and find a place for a lot more in society.

The word Brahmin means "purest being". Many think that it relates to bloodlines. In America we have a performance driven society and the best way for the rich to maintain their status is to limit competition by pricing people out. So again, with all this competition and all these red, white, and blue students graduating from colleges and universities, why did we have Michael Brown as the Director of FEMA? When the aristocracy gets a hold of power the cream does not rise. Michael Brown believes in the purity of bloodlines in Arabian Horses. We have a lot of our "elite" families who subscribe to the purity of the royal blood in the Middle East. Prince of this, King of that... We want to bring Democracy to Iraq and most of our allies’ leaders in that region have "Prince" or "King" in their titles?

The thing to keep in mind is that you might be throwing out the baby with the bathwater. When you say Bush is good for industry are you considering that many of the industrial jobs have gone overseas? When we pump the money from the profit from cheap labor of developing countries and pump out our industrial capacity, don't you think it will hurt us in the long run? Massachusetts may be feeling this gentrification greater than most cities and may need to begin the debate of what the long term strategy should be, given this new dynamic (well articulated on your part).

Before the middle class becomes extinct and is replaced with a professional class that serves the rich, we need to pause and think about the values that created the middle class and this Nation for that matter. It is civic virtue which asks people to put aside their personal desires to perform civic duty. Ones right to profit in our Nation is only available to them because people serve in the Military to defend us. It is available to us because of all of the immigrants that built this country and fought our wars. Your arguments remind me of the disrespect towards the Irish in Boston at the turn of the last century. There used to be signs saying "Irish need not apply". If it weren't for the Irish we may not have won the Civil War. I don't think that you are disrespectful in nature; I think that your value system blinds you from a sense of duty to a commonwealth versus personal wealth. Guilt is ones recognition that they are getting something at someone else's expense. You can subscribe to an ideology that rationalizes these facts like the Religious Right's leaders living very materialistic lives. When oil prices go up, it is great for your oil stocks but not great for the old lady who has to heat her house.

When a policy or situation arises that creates a hardship for some, we need to be fair about it. I do not care in the least for lazy people that want to live on the dole. I don't think we need to feed those that have self created hardships, but the younger generation that is currently priced out of the housing market are not deserving of the hardship dealt to them.
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Who_Else
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 15, 2007 10:27 pm GMT    Post subject: Waht_Else Reply with quote

It was quite a game. Troy brown saved Brady’s bacon after the 4th down interception.

In INDU and SPX from 1995 through 2000, I see housing from 2000 through 2005. Tech was managed by Clinton the same way housing has been managed by Bush - hands off.

You seem to be reliving past conversations with other folks as much as participating in this one. I’ve never espoused loyalty to the present president except that his effect on the recent economy has been excellent. In more general ways I think he could be outspoken by a trained chimp, and he’s stepped us in a pile of international feces.

In the stock charts I see an underlying ascent in both indices from 1982 to present, likely tied to population growth and productivity. After the tech bubble I see a good recovery then five years of strength. These charts do not include dividend yields which are favored by new tax laws. Including dividends the past five years have been outstanding. Adjusted for inflation, the story gets better again relative to earlier decades. If you had assets in the market for the past five years, you are well ahead of spiraling tuition cost.

I believe the root cause of the bubbles came up in the early Clinton years, or possibly during Bush senior’s tenure. Reagan? It’s hard to pinpoint when the cash flow was normal and when it became abnormal. Americans were allowed greater access to, identified and consumed cheaper or higher quality foreign products at rates previously not possible. Blame more efficient transportation, communication and free trade.

The increasing net trade deficit ought to have devalued US currency to the point that imports became less desirable. However our export- happy partners have staved the correction by reinvesting their net dollar surpluses in US government debt. They do not have sufficient domestic consumption to support their own industrial output. They prop up our currency so we can buy their products. We are running the three-legged race together on a long tightrope.

The US is the world’s largest debtor, but simultaneously the world’s largest lender. To maintain our currency, partners like China and Japan buy US debt at a time when yields are poor. In the mean time, US investors can buy foreign debt with higher yields. Though the US owes more principal than it is owed, the favorable yield differential allows the US to collect more returns than it pays out.

The foreign owned US currency pouring back into US markets is often called “hot money”. It has to get here and it has to do something fast. It does not stop at US government debt, but visits other assets as well. But which ones? If you are Toyota’s handler, and you are busy bankrupting Ford, you can not buy Ford stock. Hot money in search of safe havens has created these bubbles. Clinton’s and Bush’s.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2007 1:39 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thank you for all of this. How do you see this whole thing playing out?
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Same_Guy
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2007 2:41 am GMT    Post subject: Yeah Reply with quote

Big war? I dunno.

Definitely Chinese consumption passes US consumption in the next decade. Maybe we become the second biggest economy, the Yuan becomes the global currency, the dollar corrects, and the US folows Europe into moldy socialism.

We drive around in our tiny electric cars with bags of baguettes angry that Bill Gates' adopted Numibian grandchildren for making us log into work from our 20-year old McMansion studdies for 30 hour weeks.

I like you. I still don't like your politics but you rant well.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Tue Jan 16, 2007 3:24 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

It sound like a nice set up banks has with foreign relations. The smart investors seem to be riding the waves and going along for a nice ride. You need to have money to invest in order to get in the game however. Young people buried in student loans and rents might have difficulty following your lead. The investors that are cashing in somehow seem to feel productive like they are actually contributing to society. The banking industry wants to make profit and stay ahead of any potential changes in the market and in fact set the pace. The huge growing market in China along with the internet and other advancement of technology seem to make it very difficult to control. I wonder how loyal they really are to the USA. What is frustrating is that the international community is trading and benefiting from the stability and security of our Nation and we seem to be absorbing their risk and juvenile behavior (currency fixing). I wonder if someone is asking how all of this impacts Joe-six-pack USA. I mean it is our dollar and if this foreign crap is causing major disruptions to the "general Welfare" of our Nation isn't it someone's Constitutional duty to make sure that at least our strategy moves the line of scrimmage forward for Mr. and Mrs. Red White and Blue? Do you think that our future will be less of sovereign power and more of private corporations and international banking institutions and exchanges?

I totally get your point about having foresight to invest in oil when a Texan came into office. You would think that with his knowledge of the oil industry and his power he could move the line of scrimmage forward for us and make oil less expensive and more accessible. His Constitutional duty is to promote the "general Welfare". It may be naive of me to be so hopeful and trusting. I think it is smart but insidious to expect that he would allow his bloodsuckers to feed off the Nation he has sworn to defend. I get that China has driven up competition for the oil, but why aren't we pushing hard to get technology that doesn't depend quite as much on oil? We are empowering the most unstable region of the world; does that provide us long term security? So our leaders don't do anything about it, they just profit on the flow down the wrong path. Isn't that irresponsible?

I totally appreciate your build-out scenario. What do you think the USA would need to do to have us winning the Super bowl in the end? New home buyers don't get warm and fuzzy feelings when someone who is clearly intelligent likes you saying "Dunno, maybe a big war". Those "moldy socialistic" nations seem to be doing alright. They trade on our Military's might to defend them; they get the universal health coverage and get like 2 months of vacation time. I wouldn't trade with them for a second, but it is very frustrating that we have to work so hard and have to absorb so many foreign wildcards and rebuild and defend unappreciative nations and our President seems to be pimping us out to his corporate cronies.

What is also frustrating is that most of the realistic people I meet that have the discipline of circumspection and killer instinct are often cynical and their end game vision is often negative. If a person like this had one percent hope and a sense of common wealth it would turn things around. What we end up with in turn is "Together we can......” blank. 99 percent hope and 1 percent reality. It sure would be nice to get away from these dramatic pendulum shifts. I don't mean to be dramatic, but a government of the people can not survive if people don't spend a little bit of their time looking out for eachother.

Again, what do you think we would need to get our arms around in order for the USA to win?

Further, another one of my dreams is to manage my brother and cousin as professional wrestlers in the WWE. They are both accountants and their signature move would be the "Cross Foot". My name would be the "Lady Pleaser". I would be a real scoundrel, and my weakness would be that I would be distracted by beautiful women and the opponents would capitalize on the distraction and cheat and win. (Don’t mention Clinton- hardy har har) So do you have any ideas of how I would get from A to B on that one?
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There_are_only_two_here
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 5:16 pm GMT    Post subject: This is a long one.... Reply with quote

Really, I don’t know where we are headed, long run. I think we agree that real estate is in for some bad years. I don’t know if that necessarily means recession. The last time the threat of a real estate lead recession loomed, there was a troop build up in Vietnam. The recession was averted. I don’t see the linkage, but the situation is being reenacted. Some more clever power is at work.

I don’t think my lazy comment about a big war scared anyone. We seem to be the only ones in this room.

Debt yield spreads are supporting trade imbalances and currency strength for the US. Three main forces for the status quo:
Return on government debt has to stay low.
Foreign bankers have to play along.
US investors have to seek higher yields, with higher implied risks.

Government debt establishes “risk free” return, a reference for tranches. The historical low interest rates spill into equity markets like corporate bonds, stocks and consumer debt. There are our bubbles stocks then housing. First there was a wave of corporate investment spurred by lower cost of capital, then a wave of consumer spending and home upgrades enabled by lower cost of debt.

The net should have created inflation, and it has, but it was somewhat curtailed by artificial demand for dollar based assets. Commodities have done increased, but China sets an inflation resistant price for shoes and socks at WalMart by pegging its currency.

To compete with government subsidized (through central bank currency holding) foreign production, US companies have to produce products with barriers to entry or reduce production costs. No number of malnourished child laborers can be whipped into making Pentium processors out of underwear bands. Unfortunately no number of high-speed robotic steel door stampers seem to allow UAW workers to reduce US automobile labor cost-per-unit below foreign costs.

The pursuit of return drives US investors into higher risk positions. Owned offshore manufacturing involves risks including quality disasters, qualified labor shortages, civil unrest, government collapse, and sudden appearance of 100% marginal tax rates. Colgate-Palmolive had a South-American factory more or less repossessed. Outsourced offshore manufacturing adds increased risk from loss of control, copycat products and underground sales. Certain golf clubs ought to come with certificates of authenticity. Equity positions in high-return independent companies, stocks or debt, have frightening undiversifiable risk. The Asian banking crisis of the mid 1990s destroyed a lot of wealth.

I lead into this conversation with unsympathetic comments about folks who signed bad mortgages and young people who can’t afford housing. I’m still in that mindset. First, the information and tools for learning about mortgages are out there. Internet windbags like us are dying to pontificate. Second, housing has started to get affordable (fact) and it should keep going down for a while (we think). Also home ownership among the young is at record levels.

Since then I’ve been absolving pariahs. In my imagined world, the mortgage brokers, Realtors and tract builders have been positioned to benefit from a macro situation, and have not behaved disproportionately badly. The consumer has been making unpatriotic buying decisions like any free-trading capitalist should. The federal government is working with a multi-decade financial process over which it has only partial control.

Too many variables for me to blame any one person. I wish the president would work with a public speaking consultant, but he’s not killing the world economy. If the hot money can find a new asset, the world economy might even keep running.

Also, oil prices, 1980 to present, compare favorably with inflation. A gallon of milk and a gallon of unleaded are running neck and neck. Cars might get more fuel efficient, but kids are unlikely to get more milk efficient. Do we need to elect a dairy farmer to get the situation under control?

I don’t want the moldy European socialism. Safety is not fun. This is fun. Also the latest issue of Money magazine says that over 8 percent of Americans have more than $1 million in assets _excluding_ primary residence. A kid born in this country starts with great silver spoon odds. For the rest , there is education and social mobility.
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 9:57 pm GMT    Post subject: Oops Reply with quote

I made a bad guess at a statistic:

The USDA has a nice page tracking individual commodity prices by annual average price, but try to find it.

Milk 1970 $5.50 per hundredweight
Milk 2003 $12.83 per hundredweight

133% increase is 2.6% compounded for 33 years.

Gasoline 1970 $0.34 per gallon
Gasoline 2003 $1.83 per gallon

436% increase is 5.2% compounded for 33 years.

Also…

Gasoline price change rated by president:
Reagan -28% in 8 years
Clinton +24% in 8 years
Bush 1st +27% in 4 years
Carter +47% in 4 years
Bush 2nd +69% in 6 years

i.e. your negative sentiment on gas prices was on target.

The opinion portion of previous stands.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 17, 2007 10:59 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

My biggest weakness understands the gravity of an issue i.e. how much does this or that statistically impact the overall. For instance, this troop "surge" is said to only be a 15% increase. I think many people assume it is more. How big Baghdad is say compared to Boston and how many cops does Boston have on the street at any given time, this sort of stuff. It takes forever to try to cobble the figures together. Have you found good sources to draw data? I wish the FED would publish their sources of data collection and use physical charts and graphs when they report. I would like to compare the cost of the Iraq war to Massachusetts State Budget or to the National revenue from taxes.

For the Boston housing market, I am trying to get my arms around the number of buyers and sellers, the breakdown of age segments and their corresponding income levels. Most Harvard studies I find are like two to three years old and are based on even older data. Related to this current ratio, if you were a baby-boomer that was planning to retire and move out of Massachusetts, do you think that they should move on it sooner than later? For instance, if they continue to work they could lose any potential savings in the market decline. The market could come back in 2008 or 2009 so they might break even. Just as you see on one end, the young couple doing the rent to buy analysis, what are your thoughts about the baby-boomer retiring now and bolt or keep working analysis?

I am glad that I haven't bored you into submission. My little brother tells me that his technique to get his 1 year old daughter to sleep is to "put on an Uncle Johnny mask and bring in a book on architecture". Apparently it is "lights out". There are times that I admit, I sound like Rocky Balboa after beating the Russian (Rocky IV). I know listeners are like "Oh my God, please make him stop", kind of like a bad musician playing while you're waiting for the "T". Sometimes I cough out something logical. If you reread some of my posts and put on "Journey" in the background it may bring a tear to your eye (or not). I could torture people with this. I like to think it has a grotesque artistic quality, a cross between Bob Dylan and Ricky Bobby (the stock car driver from "Talladega Nights").
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SameGuy
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 18, 2007 4:15 pm GMT    Post subject: Surging General's Warning Reply with quote

I get almost all of my housing data from US Bureau of labor and statistics, Mortgage Bankers Association, and blogs.

For the war, I thought the "surge" was even lower. Washington post says exitsing count was 138,000. If the range of new troops is 10,000 to 20,000, then the increase is between 7% and 15%. Which team of phonies coined the surge term?

For a fun read check this out:
http://deconsumption.typepad.com/deconsumption/2006/05/index.html
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