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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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 Posted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 2:54 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Mark wrote: |
Here is my question: Is MIT, Caltech, Stanford accepting few students from TAMS and then filling the rest of the class with students from less competitive schools? My guess is that these schools are filling most of their classes with students from TAMS-like schools. There may be enough TAMS out there for these schools to fill 75% to 95% of each class with the top 10 to 15 students from each TAMS (assuming this is what the schools want).
In any case, I see you point. Attending a top school could reduce your chances of getting into a top 5 school. But not attending one of these top schools may not improve your chances of getting into one of these top 5 schools either because you gain a lot more competition by not attending one of these top schools. (think about the number of non-TAMS versus the number of TAMS) Perhaps, no matter what one does, getting into one of these top schools is always a matter of luck (except for those at the top of these TAMS-like schools). |
Many of the TAMS students would be top of their class in other schools and there chances would certainly be better at the top 5 schools, though I agree that odds may still be insignificant. For the remainder of the schools, I think the chances go up going to a top HS. In general with any HS, the trick is to apply to schools which are far away. So getting back to the original point, I think that going to a school in an immune HS will help you get into a good school but may make it more difficult to get into the best of the best.
Also, there are other magnet schools in the country but nothing with the size and funding of TAMS (it has its own line item in the Texas budget). At least that was the case when I was there ages ago. |
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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| Posted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 3:15 am GMT Post subject: |
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| admin wrote: | | I just downloaded and graphed the tiered S&P/Case-Shiller data for Boston. The tiered indices separate housing sales into low, middle, and high tiers based on price. I think the results may provide some insight into price behavior in "immune" towns. |
Very useful data. Thanks for putting it together.
I think the data here is revealing. When the low tier passed the middle and high tiers there wouldn't be any pressure on the higher tiers because those people priced out just wouldn't buy. However, the same isn't true in the other direction. As the low tier passes the middle tier, there will be some people who prefer the value of the low tier and will move in that direction, which will cause downward pressure on the middle tier. As that happens, you'll see the same effect on the upper tier. Assuming that the number of buyers isn't changing, we can expect the rate of change to drop as the effect spreads between the average. So like admin says, expect them to start moving in unison soon with slow attrition.
Not that surprising given what the futures are predicting. Without even small housing appreciation, it is hard to make the case for buying. You'd always be better off waiting a few years then buying. Then throw in economic uncertainy and here's what we've got:
(1) deflation
(2) moderate inflation
(3) hyper-inflation
(4) moderate stagflation
(5) hyper-stagflation
Option (1) is not good for housing. (2) would be great but its not going to happen. (3) is possible but only if accompanied by growth and I think decades of over-consumption destroys opportunity for growth. (4) is possible also not good for housing. (5) is terrible for housing.
History and current events tells us to prepare for (3) and (5). I think the catalyst will be the popping of the treasury bubble. As soon as things improve just a little, money will flood away from the government. With all the spending we are committed to and revolving debt that needs to be paid off, interest rates will soar. I would hate to have 5x my money trapped in an asset that is rapidly deflating in value while my income stagnates. |
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Boston ITer
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| Posted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 11:04 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Many of the TAMS students would be top of their class in other schools and there chances would certainly be better at the top 5 schools |
If many TAMS students would have been top of their class elsewhere, then that means that at least half your classmates will miss getting a full scholarship to a fine school. And that's a shame because coming out of college w/o debt does place the average middle class person at an advantage over others in today's work world.
Realize, plain old admissions is less of a big deal than you might think; I know this from those, who'd taken hefty loans to attend a name college like Penn. Even a TAMU student can move to Boston, take courses at MIT as a special student and transfer into the full time program, given time, and if that fails, transfer those credits back to UT/Austin. The question, of course, is who's going to pay for all this. |
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BelmontRenter
Joined: 29 Dec 2008
Posts: 52
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| Posted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 3:40 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| admin wrote: |
I think that the third chart below, which adjusts the indices for inflation and displays them as a percentage of their average, is the most useful (the other charts are provided for reference). The immediate realization that jumps off the chart is that the bubble was much more pronounced in the low tier than the other tiers, and the correction has been as well. |
For what it's worth, this has been my observation and intuition as well. It has seemed to me that, during the biggest expansion of the housing bubble, many "have-not" areas became hot. These, when the bubble started bursting, were among the first to return towards their former levels. This specifically occurred in some of the farther outlying suburbs; those rose quickly and fell quickly.
What was not clear to me was whether, arithmetically, the "immune towns" actually rose less during the bubble expansion, or simply have been been slower to lose. |
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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| Posted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 3:55 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Boston ITer wrote: |
If many TAMS students would have been top of their class elsewhere, then that means that at least half your classmates will miss getting a full scholarship to a fine school. And that's a shame because coming out of college w/o debt does place the average middle class person at an advantage over others in today's work world.
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Financially, TAMS students do quite well actually. The top 5 schools rarely give scholarships but TAMS students graduate with up to two years of college credits, which they paid $0 for. Schools inside Texas are required to recognize all of the credits. Schools outside tend to recognize about 1 year worth. I was able to get a little more through patience and persistence. Most TAMS students get at least a small automatic scholarshipt to UT Austin and a full scholarship to stay at UNT (but its UNT). The best deal you get is going to TAMS and then UT Austin. UT Austin is dirt cheap to begin with, a top (10) ranked school for engineering and business, recognizes full college credits, and provides a small scholarship on top of that. Too bad I just had to get out of the state of Texas! |
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jad
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Boston ITer
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| Posted: Thu Feb 12, 2009 8:06 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Quote: | | Schools inside Texas are required to recognize all of the credits. Schools outside tend to recognize about 1 year worth. I was able to get a little more through patience and persistence. Most TAMS students get at least a small automatic scholarshipt to UT Austin and a full scholarship to stay at UNT (but its UNT). The best deal you get is going to TAMS and then UT Austin. |
Now that's a sweet deal and it trumps all the magnet schools up north. If I have kids, and they're good at the sciences, I think I'll move to TX. I'd also have no problems paying for two (or fewer) years at UT/A. And as for the in-state credit transfer, it would be pretty amazing esp if one could apply those credits to something like the Rice-Baylor 6 yr BA/MD program where one essentially only pays for the medical school half.
In a way, really the best program, in places like NYC, are the 7 year BA/MD programs with the City Colleges and its amazing that all the city magnet schools compete furiously for those limited scholarships. |
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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| Posted: Fri Feb 13, 2009 4:06 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Boston ITer wrote: |
Now that's a sweet deal and it trumps all the magnet schools up north. If I have kids, and they're good at the sciences, I think I'll move to TX. I'd also have no problems paying for two (or fewer) years at UT/A. And as for the in-state credit transfer, it would be pretty amazing esp if one could apply those credits to something like the Rice-Baylor 6 yr BA/MD program where one essentially only pays for the medical school half.
In a way, really the best program, in places like NYC, are the 7 year BA/MD programs with the City Colleges and its amazing that all the city magnet schools compete furiously for those limited scholarships. |
Unlike MA, Texas also has a large public medical school system. Those schools only require a 1 year residency while MA requires 5 full Jan-Dec years, unless you graduated from a MA high school in which case you are always welcome back. Don't feel like graduating from a HS here will help you much, though, because they only accept 100/yr. |
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Hard Rain
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| Posted: Sun Feb 22, 2009 4:29 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| jad wrote: | Hard Rain - I am using Mass Deeds and don't see homes selling for less than a few years ago in the towns I mentioned (inside 128).
However, according to JohnP's link, even Sherborn is up 7% year over year. Needham, Jamaica Plain, Cambridge, Winchester, Carlise, Hingham, Hamilton, Manchester, Weston, Wellesley, Arlington, etc. all ended 2008 in positive territory. Most of the nicer towns are down 0-10% at most, while the lower income towns are down 10-30%. |
"Average price per square foot for Weston MA was $394, a decrease of 28.9% compared to the same period last year. The median sales price for homes in Weston MA for Nov 08 to Jan 09 was $1,067,500 based on 20 home sales. Compared to the same period one year ago, the median home sales price decreased 17.5%, or $226,000, and the number of home sales decreased 54.5%."
hmmm |
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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| Posted: Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:37 am GMT Post subject: |
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| That's what the averages say but subjectively the prices don't feel like they're falling. Maybe its just high asking prices providing an illusion. |
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balor123
Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204
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| Posted: Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:28 am GMT Post subject: |
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| Ugh website was really slow... |
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ConcernedCitizen2
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| Posted: Mon Feb 23, 2009 7:08 pm GMT Post subject: TEXAS |
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Hi balor123, thought you might find it interesting: I went to one of those Money Magazine "pick the region for you" optimizers, and entered my preferences (cost of living important, education important, cultural amenities important) etc and it told me I should move to;
Houston, Dallas, Austin, Colorado Springs and Washington DC
So 3 out of 5 in Texas! |
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jad
Guest
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| Posted: Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:39 pm GMT Post subject: sales data |
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Hard Rain - hmm, let's try a few towns on or inside 128 that are large enough to have a descent number of sales in the winter if we're only going to look a month or two of data. For all of these towns, volume it still too low to tell what is happening by looking at prices over a month or two. You can't use a sample size of 10-20 of leftover homes that sell in January and say prices fell 35%. I would be interested in where you got the January price/sq ft number though. I would like to compile the data for several additional towns.
Anybody on this board seeing occupied homes on the market in these towns for 35% less than a year ago? If so, please tell me where so I can consider buying. I know everybody can find one or two properties that have a very low price for some reason (bank owned, major development occurring nearby etc - I'm asking if anybody is seeing the typical house selling for 35% less than a year ago in Newton, Needam, Winchester, etc.
I'm also not arguing prices haven't fallen, that's why I asked the initial question. In fact, I am anxiously waiting a big fall - but I haven't seen it yet in the towns I am interested in (Winchester, Needham, Wellesley).
Data from Warren Group Jan 2009 price vs. Jan 2008 vs. Jan 2007 price, obviously this doesn't factor in mix of sales or sales volume:
Town, Jan 2009, Jan 2008, Jan 2007
Newton: $909k, $850k, $745k
Wellesley: $945k, $1,075k, $1,000k
Lexington: $638k, $690k, $722k
Needham: $799k, $749, $677k
Winchester: $700k, $791k, $553k
Reading: $400k, $365k, 410k
Concord: $827k, $950k, $694k |
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JCK
Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559
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| Posted: Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:43 pm GMT Post subject: |
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jad,
Trulia.com has price/sq ft. numbers in graphical form. |
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Hard Rain
Guest
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| Posted: Mon Feb 23, 2009 8:58 pm GMT Post subject: |
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| Average price per square foot for Lexington MA was $311, a decrease of 25.1% compared to the same period last year. The median sales price for homes in Lexington MA for Nov 08 to Jan 09 was $512,500 based on 70 home sales. Compared to the same period one year ago, the median home sales price decreased 12.2%, or $71,500, and the number of home sales decreased 11.4%. |
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