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Boston & Urban Suburban Condo Market; in good shape!
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BillK
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 6:58 pm GMT    Post subject: Harry Mudd - Well stated - Real Estate Development Companies Reply with quote

Harry great job -
Condo finds it hard to believe...
Real Estate Development companies build Real Estate and the bigger the better. Their greatest comes from their ability to take obscene risks and thats when the biggest projects are possible.
Look at Toll Brothers - they build homes and I think people are finally beginning to realize they may have built too many upscale homes.

But, Robert Toll never stepped up and suggested his firm should cut back on building.
Although, he was wise/intelligent enough to sell $130 MILLION in Toll Brother Stock (at the peak price) while the World still believed that Real Estate would appreciate for ever.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 8:20 pm GMT    Post subject: tranquility in the city Reply with quote

Robert DeNiro bought a nice condo on the west side/overlooking Central Park. If you walk around that area, and the opposite side near 5th/6th avenue (east side of Central Park) you'll find nice relatively traquil areas. Here in Boston we have the South End, Marlborough Street/ Back Bay, and Beacon Hill. We also have nice quiet pockets by Rowes Wharf, and Commercial Street in the North End, Charlestown/ Charlestown Navy Yard, and of course new stuff along the Rose Kennedy Greenway.

I think the equation is what type of retired or empty nester would want to live in the City, what type of neighborhoods are available to them and at what will the trade be for them to relocate. In order to get into these neighborhoods you need two things: a lot of money, and a love/patience for city living. Most people living in a leafy suburb like their parking spaces and don't want to deal with moving their car when it snows or having their house guests get parking tickets if they want to entertain. If however, your social circle was also city dwellers and they got around by cab and you enjoyed meeting out for brunch or for a show in the theater district, it may be a nice lifestyle.

I think the type of older people would be people that say lived in Brookline, Newton, and places like that and wanted to downsize. They would be used to the cons of city living...

I also wonder about how in the past few years the economy has expanded for the very rich and the middle class has remained at a more moderate growth. Could this result in a greater demand for the neighborhoods serving the ultra wealthy? My question is wouldn't you rather have a bigger, nicer, quieter place on the Cape or any other state along the coast? My guess is that the guy who buys the place on Marlborough Street also has a place in Vail, coast of Florida, coast of Maine, Paris.... I wonder what people think of the demand for the growing segments of wealthy: regional wealthy, national wealthy, and international wealthy. London and Paris have a lot of international wealthy and I wonder if Boston has what attracts this level.

Here's something to think about: Chinatown. This place is in an amazing location when you look at the future development of Boston. Just like the Italians selling to yuppies and then moving out of the North End to go north to Saugus, etc. You're finding some of the Chinese community cashing out and moving to to areas like Quincy. 20 years from now remember Johnny P. told you that Chinatown would be a hot area.
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Harry Mudd
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2006 11:13 pm GMT    Post subject: Uh oh, spagettios! Reply with quote

Downtown condo prices fall for 2d quarter
Median is 11 percent off its peak; sales fell almost 20 percent

By Kimberly Blanton, Globe Staff | October 28, 2006

Condominium prices in downtown Boston declined 6.9 percent in the three months ending Sept. 30, the second consecutive quarter in which slumping sales drove prices down in the once-hot downtown market.

The median condominium price was $419,000, down from $449,950 in the third quarter of 2005, according to the quarterly report issued yesterday by Listing Information Network, or Link. The median price was nearly 11 percent below the condo market's price peak of $470,000, which occurred in the fourth quarter of 2005. The number of condos sold fell 19.7 percent.

"It's a correction," said Larissa Duzhansky, a New England economist for Global Insight, an economics consulting firm in Lexington. She predicted prices will continue to fall well into next year but rebound in 2008.

Prices declined in 8 of the 12 central city neighborhoods tracked by Link, ranging from Back Bay's 4.2 percent drop and Beacon Hill's 1.9 percent drop to a 2.5 percent rise in South Boston and a 3.1 percent rise in the emerging Fenway neighborhood. Quarterly data on a neighborhood can an unreliable indicator of trends because the number of sales in a neighborhood in a single quarter are small.

http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/articles/2006/10/28/downtown_condo_prices_fall_for_2d_quarter/?p1=MEWell_Pos5
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Mike



Joined: 01 Nov 2006
Posts: 28

PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 5:57 pm GMT    Post subject: Re: tranquility in the city Reply with quote

john p wrote:

Here's something to think about: Chinatown. This place is in an amazing location when you look at the future development of Boston. Just like the Italians selling to yuppies and then moving out of the North End to go north to Saugus, etc. You're finding some of the Chinese community cashing out and moving to to areas like Quincy. 20 years from now remember Johnny P. told you that Chinatown would be a hot area.


I've been reading this forum for a few months now and I figure it's about time I registered since I finally have something to say. (I'm Chinese).

I don't think Chinatown has that many residential properties to beign with. It's mostly restaurants and bakeries. Most of the immigrant Chinese already live in Quincy, while the 2nd generation Chinese are sprawled across the western and northwestern suburbs like Brookline, Newton, Cambridge, and even as far out as Acton.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Wed Nov 01, 2006 8:06 pm GMT    Post subject: Chinatown Reply with quote

Do you think that they might build new condominium structures in Chinatown, sort of like Millenium Place, you know the towers that overlook the Boston Common. Do you think that there are spots that will have nice views of the new Greenway or over to the Fort Point Channel and all that new development? I love Chinatown and it will be great to have it surrounded by a cool diverse set of neighbors: Downtown Crossing, the Theater District, the Rose Kennedy Greenway, the Public Garden/Boston Common, the gateway to the waterfront/ South Boston and with South Station right there, even walk to work in the Financial District. You can get your bubble tea and tool around so many different places.

http://www.emporis.com/en/wm/cx/?id=100705
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Mike



Joined: 01 Nov 2006
Posts: 28

PostPosted: Thu Nov 02, 2006 8:39 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would also love to see more condo towers in the Chinatown area, but there's 2 things that make it tough to build in that area. The area is currently zoned for 150 feet, so that rules out towers over ~13 stories. Also, they have strict rules about razing historical buildings. Developers would need to keep the existing facade and build around that.

Don't know if you heard, but Millennium Partners (weren't they behind the Millennium Place towers you're talking about?) is building a new 277-unit mixed-use tower in the Downtown Crossing/Chinatown area to break ground in spring 2007. It's called Hayward Place.
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Condo



Joined: 28 Sep 2006
Posts: 50
Location: Boston

PostPosted: Thu Feb 22, 2007 9:01 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

The question was posed….. How does Condo feel about the latest market news. If this is a bad market ….I hope to god it continues! The downtown condo market is stupendous, sitting at 2.5 months supply. Prices are up, inventory is down and buyer traffic is way up. As predicted on this site, and across the press in general, the following did not fall; 2006 average and median price are above record years 2004 & 2005!

Many of the reports in the press are based off of LINK reports. However the methodology if flawed when they compare data and suggest trends especially when they make comparisons of sales on sq foot prices and # of BR’s …apples and oranges. In addition they trend neighborhood activity without qualifying or pointing out the ebb and flow of transactions in a neighborhood are greatly affected by closing of new developments. LINK is aware of this, and has acknowledged this as a flaw…. However choose not to change it due to the tremendous work involved. The essential leave out the data until they have a bulk figure…then toss it into the matrix, thus the great volatility up and down. Most reports and readers have no idea this exists …how would they!! The true data reflects no up and down ….but either sideways or up. Don’t misunderstand the situation, the arithmetic is accurate, but it’s an apples to oranges comparison year to year so it does not match up with unit specific / building specific values. They should either stop doing the trending reports or change the methodology …people interpret it incorrectly because it’s provided incorrectly, or without explanation.

The upward pressure on price in the downtown market is in turn accelerating the growth of the emerging condo market.

We know by both quantitative and qualitative research; data and continuous
interviews. Emerging market condo projects are seeing a tremendous amount of
traffic, folks looking for new construction, affordable prices, nice
finishes, deeded parking, easy lifestyle etc. The folks in this price point, 500K and
under are most certainly out there....pressured out of downtown Boston due
to price. I guarantee the 07 numbers in the emerging market will be higher than 06 due to the sales at new construction development. The negative sentiment out there the past
year has subsided.....this is more of a psychological factor.
Folks are more willing to get off the sidelines because the fear instilled
in them, has subsided. I wish there was a statistic for the positive
dialogue out there....this was not as common 6 months ago.
More development is inevitable in the emerging market;
more affordable condos, close to public transportation, and major roadways.
As most of you know, and perhaps reported on, there is also a political movement
enabling these developments to progress.... providing MA residents more
affordable housing close to Boston and public transportation. Be on the lookout for a Globe piece on or about March 25th about this. Sorry I have not been more engaged in this forum ….
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steverino
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 23, 2007 12:11 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Since price per square foot in the South End, Back Bay and Beacon Hill has dropped 2-10% http://masshousemarket.blogspot.com/2007/02/urban-condo-market-analysis-noise-or.html from the same period last year, I thankfully don't need to read the rest of your bloviations.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Fri Feb 23, 2007 4:04 pm GMT    Post subject: bloviation Reply with quote

Hey now, I am the one with the most constipated personality on this blog, just like Ceasar Milan (the dog whisper) wears a "Pack Leader" t-shirt, I have "bloviator" one. And you can't have two of them at Monster Trucks so you can just keep your meathooks off.

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2007/02/18/signs_of_solidity_seen_for_07_housing_sales/

What about this guy? I love the photo, conservative old grandpa. I just want to sit down indian style in front of him and have him read me a bedtime story. "Read to me again the one about how the real estate market was going to go up in 2006".

He uses the word "phenomenal" to describe the past 100 days. Where is the data to support this? Condo guy uses "stupendous" and then tell us that the source of data we have is flawed and that's the problem, and that although the numbers are dismal, everything is great.

These guys ought to get a job in the Bush Administration. I think what is in order is that people start disclosing what their financial interests are. Military contractors supply wars and want to prolong it even though it is a disaster. They enjoy to see the politicans stumble with incompetence, it draws it out and a long failure is much more profitable than a quick success. They buy off politicians in donations who's job is to provide propoganda like "Your unAmerican if you don't support the Troops". Whenever you question the powerful's competence they give you the "I dont' have a crystal ball" or "oh, I trust that they acted in Good Faith". So faith is what they ask of us, faith is the carwash that clears away their incompetence. Well if you're incompetent time and time again and the data doesn't support your position and you have a financial interest that flies in the face of the data, the rest of us are going to employ a real American value: rational thought. Show us the numbers and don't be a sleaze if you've got a financial interest. We are tired of being lied to.
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john p



Joined: 10 Mar 2006
Posts: 1820

PostPosted: Fri Feb 23, 2007 4:16 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another thing that skews the numbers. I saw a house go on the market in late winter 2005 and then go on again in 2006 and then go on again in 2007. I wonder how the MLS determines this property's time on the market? Maybe people have taken their homes off the market after the holidays and just put them back on? Did they really "clear" a lot of inventory off the market or did people take their condos off the market? If these condos were sold, why wouldn't they be recorded as such?

I think that because the financial industry had a really good year last year, the target market for realtors in Boston is the financial sector. The problem is that if they were successful they know how to do financial analysis or at least know people who do and regardless of the fact that they have newly acquired assets, you need to have hard data to convince them to plow their money into a losing proposition. Financial people don't operate on faith, they need hard numbers, they need to see points on the scoreboard.
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Guest
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PostPosted: Sat Feb 24, 2007 12:43 pm GMT    Post subject: Data for recently sold condos. Reply with quote

Please, where do we find the data of recently sold condos? Thanks.
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Condo



Joined: 28 Sep 2006
Posts: 50
Location: Boston

PostPosted: Sun Feb 25, 2007 7:54 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

The first five weeks of 2007 has been nothing short of fantastic. I'm not an optimist by nature... I read as much as possible, talk to many folks in the industry, meet with hundred of buyers, talk to journalists ( one of which I believe to be the most negative reporter in the state, who is begin to change her negative sentiment). I simply refuse to get spoon feed the typical stories, by folks who do not know how to correctly analyze the data, who are not out in the market everyday. Just because you read the Globe or Herald, does not mean you are getting the correct interpretation of the story, or even the true figures. This market is much more complicated than years past; and frankly, the large scale developments make it harder to track in the downtown market. My contribution to the site strictly relates to the downtown condo market and emerging condo market. This is the area I focus on, many of you are much better versed in the SFH market. I understand the fundamentals and realize the shifting trends, however, make no mistake, I do not follow the SFH market as closely.

The period from Jan 1 2007, to Feb 14 2007 has indeed been, "stupendous" in the downtown market. Transaction throught 2/14 are extremely strong, 230, and sales absorption, for this time period, 2nd highest in Boston's history at $164 mill +. I truly think these are undeniably strong figures. These figures will be revised, upwards, once cross reference with the registry.
As a side note, and reflected in the below link, 2 mill & 3mill + purchases are a whole new market segmentation. I know this does not relate to the typical home buyer. However, I believe this is a positive reflection of the strong condo market we are experiencing. There is a direct corollary to the strong down town Boston market and Emerging Market. Folks forced out of the downtown market due to lack of desirable inventory under 500K. It's happening, it's undeniable and time will deem my comments accurate. Please view following link for first five week data.
http://otisahearn.com/marketstudies/marketreport_2007_fiveweeks.pdf
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steverino
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PostPosted: Mon Feb 26, 2007 11:15 pm GMT    Post subject: Wow Reply with quote

Thanks for the link! Condo sales have really plummeted in Boston! What a disaster!

From 74 units sold in Back Bay in '05, to just 37 this year. Beacon Hill, from 35 to 10! It's like a real estate Katrina. No wonder so many brokers have left the business, and the Coldwell Banker near me gave up have its leased space. A real bloodbath.
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JCK



Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559

PostPosted: Tue Feb 27, 2007 2:34 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Condo is probably being a bit overly optimistic, but comparing 2005 to any other year seems a silly baseline.

The other numbers for Back Bay are 46, 46, and 37. Beacon Hill: 18, 13, and 10. Not a huge difference, and the chart indicates that the 2007 data will be revised upward.


Certainly a drop, but hardly the "bloodbath" you're claiming.

More noteworthy is that the 318 condos sold in 2004 yielded $163m, whereas the 230 sold this year yielded $164m.
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Condo



Joined: 28 Sep 2006
Posts: 50
Location: Boston

PostPosted: Tue Feb 27, 2007 4:42 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thank you JCK! A voice of reason, as well as someone who reads the fine print. My position is not that we are in the midst of a record setting 2005 market, simply that there is a continuing trend towards the condo lifestyle, that this market is very strong and analyzing the data is more complicated than in the past, due to numerous large scale developments. The urban market now has an increase of desirable neighborhoods, for example "The Waterfront". Sales in this neighborhood are up dramatically from years past....and the full picture has not yet revealed itself, due to places like 500 Atlantic Ave, The Intercontinental. (80% sold out).
JCK introduces an interesting point, increasing prices. This trend will slowly continue, and there are plenty of buyers willing to pay these prices, the data clearly suggests it. This speaks to my comments about the Emerging Condo market....folks priced out of downtown Boston, but desperate for the easier lifestyle close to leisure activities in the city or work. This will continue, there is no question. There may be stutter steps in the market along the way.... but it's inevitable.
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