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Metro west collapse in sales
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MW renter
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PostPosted: Sat May 10, 2008 8:19 pm GMT    Post subject: Metro west collapse in sales Reply with quote

I’ve been checking sales numbers for metro west towns on Trulia.com and it looks like they are collapsing.
In the period Jan-Mar 08 vs. Jan-Mar 07 (or Feb-Apr 08 vs. Feb-Apr 07) most sales numbers have dropped by more than 90%!!! For example: Wayland 1 vs. 8; Sudbury 3 vs. 56; Arlington 10 vs. 116 (wonder if the globe will report this); Framingham 16 vs. 172; Natick 10 vs. 123; Ashland 4 vs. 59; Hopkinton 3 vs. 43.
This seems to be the trend of every metro west town that I checked. This is chocking numbers! I’m waiting for the prices to collapse also! It blows my mind that some experts are calling a bottom is close with these numbers.
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JCK



Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559

PostPosted: Sat May 10, 2008 10:11 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

MV,

Those numbers cannot be complete. I just did a quick check on the cambridgedeeds.com for 2008 sales for Wayland (put a star "*" in the Last Name field and restricted the search to DEED in WAYLAND), and pulled up 219 recorded transactions. I was able to find at least 2 sales amount those 219 transactions, there are doubtlessly more.

I'm guessing Trulia is either wrong, or incomplete.
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stillRenting
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PostPosted: Sun May 11, 2008 1:59 am GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

the globes listings also differ from your numbers

check out http://www.boston.com/realestate/specials/07_08_march_ytd_sales_single/
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Hard Rain
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PostPosted: Sun May 11, 2008 12:27 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

JCK,

Those numbers are no doubt incorrect. FYI here is another data source for you.

http://real-estate.nextag.com/q2_wayland%2C-MA/sold_under-90/homes-html


While not as complete/accurate as sifting through the deeds it's far less time consuming. Another tip, just use "document search" when searching for deeds by town....
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JCK



Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559

PostPosted: Sun May 11, 2008 1:18 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hard Rain,

Thanks for the website link. Yes, that's much easier than sifting through deeds.
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balor123



Joined: 08 Mar 2008
Posts: 1204

PostPosted: Sun May 11, 2008 5:10 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Numbers are still very bad. Huge drop in sales in Arlington but rise in prices?
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samz



Joined: 19 Feb 2008
Posts: 102
Location: Medford, MA

PostPosted: Mon May 12, 2008 9:51 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

balor123 wrote:
Numbers are still very bad. Huge drop in sales in Arlington but rise in prices?


I wonder what that means. It doesn't look like a fluke, either: a bunch of desirable towns have much lower numbers of sales, but higher prices. Perhaps people with a lot of money aren't really affected by the economic downtown, so high-end homes continue to sell. Any other theories?
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Hard Rain
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PostPosted: Tue May 13, 2008 3:15 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

samz wrote:
balor123 wrote:
Numbers are still very bad. Huge drop in sales in Arlington but rise in prices?


I wonder what that means. It doesn't look like a fluke, either: a bunch of desirable towns have much lower numbers of sales, but higher prices. Perhaps people with a lot of money aren't really affected by the economic downtown, so high-end homes continue to sell. Any other theories?


No...

http://www.bostonherald.com/business/real_estate/view.bg?articleid=1093189
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PostPosted: Thu May 22, 2008 9:39 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was just in that area looking at real estate to see where we'd like to buy when we move. I looked at a lot of the expensive suburbs (Newton, Wellesley, Dover, Sherborn, Concord, etc...) and the realtors were all saying the same thing. Inventory is way down. Sellers are still looking for bubble prices and aren't selling unless they need to because those prices aren't as easy to get. Houses are sitting longer but when they do sell, they sell at respectable prices. And well-priced houses sell fast. I'm always skeptical when a realtor tells me something (sorry!) but it seems like that's true.

I'm so frustrated by the whole thing. We've been waiting so patiently to buy our first home and the situation never seems to change. We're renting an absolute dump here in Silicon Valley and I'm desperate to get my kids settled in a real home back East so we can start putting down roots. (Desperation - always the right condition when considering a major purchase.) The realtors say these are "aspirational" towns with a lot of pent-up demand, so as prices slide there's more demand and they don't move much. Is this true? Are we foolish to wait and be miserable when we should just suck it up? Or will these prices actually drop at some point? The housing market is so illiquid and irrational that it's driving me crazy (and irrational!)
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Sam Chady
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PostPosted: Thu May 22, 2008 9:50 pm GMT    Post subject: Buy or rent then Reply with quote

If you really are desperate, consider renting a house in one of these nicer areas that you want, and maybe even offer to buy the place after you rent it for a year. I guess that the kids situation is giving you less options though since you probably want them in a great school system and don't want to move them around. You can get a house to rent for not too bad.
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JCK



Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559

PostPosted: Fri May 23, 2008 2:14 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anonymous wrote:
Inventory is way down. Sellers are still looking for bubble prices and aren't selling unless they need to because those prices aren't as easy to get.


Yup. This agrees with

http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/Massachusetts/Boston-Cambridge-Quincy/

Which shows inventory down 8.6% vs. a year ago. I think a lot of the "trading up" sales are off the market, and, because there hasn't been as much new construction in MA as other parts of the country, there's less to choose from.

The people who can wait things out, by and large are.
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Teavo
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PostPosted: Fri May 23, 2008 3:36 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Reports on inventory are mixed. Some say up, some say down. But in any case, sales have dropped even further. This means that buyers are balking at current prices even more than sellers, and it's led us to this situation:

Quote:
MAR reports that in March, single family home sales plummeted 32.3% as compared to March 2007 with a 4.8% increase in inventory translating to a truly massive 14.1 months of supply.


A 14.1 month supply of single family homes is astounding. Typically it's about half that.

So inventory really isn't so low after all. Relative to sales, the inventory of single-family homes is huge.
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JCK



Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 559

PostPosted: Fri May 23, 2008 3:48 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

Teavo wrote:
Reports on inventory are mixed. Some say up, some say down. But in any case, sales have dropped even further. This means that buyers are balking at current prices even more than sellers, and it's led us to this situation:

Quote:
MAR reports that in March, single family home sales plummeted 32.3% as compared to March 2007 with a 4.8% increase in inventory translating to a truly massive 14.1 months of supply.


A 14.1 month supply of single family homes is astounding. Typically it's about half that.

So inventory really isn't so low after all. Relative to sales, the inventory of single-family homes is huge.


Yup, but the absolute selection is probably down, even if the fewer places available are staying on the market longer.

And my guess (not looking at data) is that you're seeing a split in the market, with desirable, reasonably priced places moving quickly, and overpriced and/or undesirable places sticking around on the market.

So there may be a lot of undesirable houses not moving...
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barryshaft
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PostPosted: Fri May 23, 2008 4:16 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

i do think that the price perception is sticking-- not sure what would be the tipping point but foreclosures (comp), layoffs, retirement (move) will all have to grind the housing prices down. There are so many micro and macro economic factors at play it is really hard to put your head around it. One of the most interesting dynamics with new england is fule prices (not only gas but home heating) The market that sent people to pepperell to live is now costing them more in gas just to get to work. I know a couple that spends $1k per month on gas... and deperatly want to move closer to work

If we were to see a real recession i do believe people (those who did not purchase in the last 5 years) will take lower prices. However, those who purchased in the last 5 years with lets say 20% down are in big trouble... With the current saving rates where they are, and if saving in IRA's, people will be hard pressed to come up with the down payment if they (walk away) or sell for no gain or a loss.

I can foresee a market, which do to price stickiness, stays extremely flat for a long time. Market dynamic might have artificially locked people to there homes... and regardless of there desire to upgrade or downgrade are locked in.

That being said i do think that the price plummeting in Florida and other sunshine belt may make it an easier pill to swallow for long time home owner to sell there homes at a lower price-- since they will now get much more bang for there buck in those markets...

On a side note, one of the RE listing emails i get everyday has seen an uptick in listing recently.
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Teavo
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PostPosted: Fri May 23, 2008 4:21 pm GMT    Post subject: Reply with quote

JCK wrote:
So there may be a lot of undesirable houses not moving...


Probably true, but isn't this always the case in almost any slow housing market? At least in the relatively early stages of the downturn. It strikes me as a given.

If indeed it's the undesirable houses that are not selling, that implies that their prices are currently even more inflated (relative to quality) than the prices of the desirable houses.

Carrying costs (property taxes, heat, etc.) make time the enemy of every seller, so owners who cannot sell their undesirable houses will find themselves under increasing pressure to lower their prices further. Eventually, those houses get priced down to an appropriate level and start to look more reasonable - not a better quality house, but a better value due to the lower price.

Some buyers then switch away from "desirable but expensive" houses over to "not so nice but at least we can afford it" houses. This reduces demand at the higher end which puts downward price pressure on the "desirable" market as well.

When prices fall in one part of the housing market, it eventually affects the whole market.
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