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colorizer · Guest

If there's any problem with the market in the south end, I've sure missed it. Two of the three places I've seen in the past three months that I was serious about buying - both sold after bidding wars for a price "significantly higher than asking."

On the the other one, I told the broker I was ready to make an offer but wanted to know what the owner had paid so I coudl get a sense of how low it might be realistic to go (I liked the place but didn't love it). I didn't didn't even get a call back for three weeks.

Still a pretty hot market out there as far as I can tell...

admin · Posted: Fri Mar 21, 2008 12:31 am GMT Post subject:

I don't know much about the South End specifically, so you may very well be right. However, I don't think that "hot" sales mean there can't be a problem. Plenty of people identified problems with the housing market back in 2005 while sales everywhere were still hot. Declining sales and prices now are symptoms of the problems which began at the beginning of the decade - it's a slow reaction.

What I would be interested in is what is the median price to income ratio for the South End, now and historically? Also, what is the median price to rent ratio for equivalent properties? Those provide more of a long term outlook on how viable the prices are.

- admin

admin · Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 4:54 pm GMT Post subject:

To get an historical perspective, I checked with The Warren Group's records for condos in Boston Proper, and they did not escape the last downturn. Here is a chart of the median condo price for the Back Bay, Beacon Hill, The North End, and The South End from 1988 - 2007, adjusted for inflation:

Real prices fell 30% from 1988 through 1996. The total drop could have been bigger since the data only goes back to 1988 and the prior peak could have been before then. Regardless, if you had bought in 1988, it would have taken 12 years to break even (not that breaking even has much importance apart from psychologically.)

Here are the sources so that you can check the math (please do in case I made a mistake):

Nominal prices: http://www.thewarrengroup.com/portal/ProductsServices/TownStats/tabid/142/Default.aspx
CPI-NU: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/

- admin

joebos · Joined: 02 Apr 2008 Posts: 2

I wonder if the South End will be more resilient this time around due to its increase in popularity and influx of wealthy buyers. It was a very different neighborhood in the 80s and 90s.

I live in the neighborhood. I rent and would never be able to afford to buy here, nor would I want to given the way it's changed in the last year. But I've surprisingly not seen any indication of a slow down. Maybe that will happen when all of these new towers get dumped on the market.

admin · Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 3:50 pm GMT Post subject: Re: More resilient?

joebos · Joined: 02 Apr 2008 Posts: 2

I just read on a realtor's blog that the remaining units in a South End building (the Modern) are going to be auctioned. Maybe the South End is not immune as everyone has been saying. This could be a sign that sales are finally slowing.

bdavis · Guest

The Modern is on the other side of Mass Ave. and has never really been accepted as part of the SE, so the auction doesn't surprise me at all.

On a similar topic however, I think sales at 700 Harrison and The 1850
are fairly anemic. Not exactly prime location, but a couple of yuears
ago, they would have sold much quicker.

I too wonder what will happen to the SE and BB real estate markets when these new buildings get dumped on the market in the coming year ot two.